Coronavirus outbreak

[SpokeyDokey]

https://obr.uk/coronavirus-reference-scenario/

OBR financial forecast report. Commentary file is the meat of the publication and is worth a read imo. Maybe, not quite as doom and gloom as some might imagine although the range of possible outcomes is quite large and very sensitive to potential fluctuation inducing possibilities as far as I can make out.

***

Typical Beeb headline here - why say something positive when abject misery will do instead - they could've led with a headline relating to the italicised line.:

Record fall coming for UK economy?

Britain's independent tax and spending watchdog has warned the coronavirus pandemic could trigger a record 35% drop in UK growth by June.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said that this was based on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months.
Under this scenario, unemployment would hit 10%, up from its current 3.9% rate.
However, once restrictions are lifted, the OBR said it expected growth to recover quickly with no lasting damage.
The OBR outlined the potential hit to the economy and public finances in a special report on Tuesday.
The BBC's economics editor, Faisal Islam, said: "These sorts of numbers are anticipated across the developed world, as most nations pursue forms of shutdown to control the spread of the virus and protect health systems from being overwhelmed.
"The forecast declines illustrate the difficult balancing act for the government in deciding when and how to lift lockdowns, now not expected until May at the earliest."

 

[fossyant]

Has anyone looked at the frailty score and applied it to a close relative.

My mum or Dad would probably score 7 or 8, under 75, reasonably fit/well with T2 diabetes (mum), another year she'd be an 8 or 9.

MIL hits 16 on the scale though !

A fit 50 year old scores 2 ! Someone under 50 and fit scores 1.

Frightening. Needs to be more clarity on the Nursing Homes (some figures coming out, but the Home certainly aren't telling us anything).

 

[alicat]

What frailty scale are you looking at @fossyant? Probably helps if we we are looking at the same one....

 

[kingrollo]

Easter is the worst time of the year for repeat prescriptions due to the double bank holiday anyway.

Repeat systems at GP surgeries vary a lot. Each individual query on shortage medicines, which will be a small number can take a disproportionately large time to sort out as well. It's quite a difficult one to work out as every pharmacy has different patients and medication stock levels and all that jazz.

Maybe they have a staff that is off ill/self isolating? Various NHS/care/mental health arenas are quoting 20-33% of staff off at any one time.

Maybe - But this was the situation mid march - still no shielding letter.

Have any asthmatics on here had shielding letters ?

 

[kingrollo]

Once again those pesky Germans are interfering in the UK, this time by sending the UK 60 ventilators free of charge.

I have a sneaky suspicion this won't be well reported in the UK so I thought I'd post it here.

There just begging us to stay in the EU - we should have none of strong on own, britian first, get brexit done - I want a british ventilator if I need one....

 

[marinyork]

Maybe - But this was the situation mid march - still no shielding letter.

Have any asthmatics on here had shielding letters ?

On the health anxiety in terms of asthma my advice would be to talk to people about it privately . Health anxiety is something which is being talked about an awful lot at the moment in the volunteering I do. I know some people with very high levels of health anxiety normally and they say they aren't really affected by covid-19, I've met a lot of others with OCD and GAD who are pretty worried and showing health anxiety-like symptoms.

I know a lot of people with asthma. I've only heard of one that has the letter. This doesn't actually surprise me in the slightest (5.4 million people in the UK have the condition which completely dwarfs the 1.5 million letters - source PSNC), but I know saying that is likely I get punched by you and other people on here who are understandably worried. Emotions/tempers/worries flaring up massively for some of those people. One is still raging against the world, but especially the GP after having not got a letter and trying to register and it being declined by the GP. Despite writing some time later, they are still having a lot of problems with deliveries. Some other people I know have been reassured that they haven't got a letter.

Yes, I believe one person on here has a letter for asthma (as a precaution, as outlined by Dr Harries DCMO).

P.S. I can quote some stuff about asthma to put it in context even though you have asked before, however, for two posters I simply think that would be unhelpful and counterproductive, so I haven't done it.

 

[Julia9054]

I think it is disingenuous to class people with asthma who are currently asking questions / seeking answers as having health anxiety. Health anxiety is a diagnosable mental health condition. Most people are generally just trying to gather information to risk assess their own personal situations.

 

[fossyant]

What frailty scale are you looking at @fossyant? Probably helps if we we are looking at the same one....

Currently on my phone, but published in Guardian and Mail.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Just a snippet for the people arguing that Sweden's "success" means the lockdown here is unnecessary

In an open letter, a group of 22 doctors, virologists and researchers from Sweden’s top hospitals, universities and research institutes pointed write:

...The approach must be changed radically and quickly. As the disease-free virus spreads, it is necessary to increase social distance. Close schools and restaurants in the same way you do in Finland. Everyone who works with the elderly must wear adequate protective equipment. Prior to mass testing of infectiousness on all caring staff and testing for antibodies to sars-covid-2 so that established immune personnel can return to work. Require quarantine by the whole family if a member is ill or tests positive for viruses. Impress in society that anyone can be contagious.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...082a2cd32a6a1d#block-5e95dbf68f082a2cd32a6a1d

114 deaths in Sweden taking them over 1000 - they have ~10 million population, and have very roughly half the per capita deaths we do, but many times more than other Scandi countries.

 

[alicat]

I'm not going to hunt at random in the Guardian or the Daily Mail.

The clinical frailty scale published by Nice in response to Covid-19 stops at 9. My 87 year old father would be between a four and a five on that scale.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Sunak just said we're all in it together. I guess he's too young to remember how that went last time they tried saying it.

 

[marinyork]

I think it is disingenuous to class people with asthma who are currently asking questions / seeking answers as having health anxiety. Health anxiety is a diagnosable mental health condition. Most people are generally just trying to gather information to risk assess their own personal situations.

Coolio, let's do this one properly eh. Not a post I wanted to have to make .

Well, you would say that wouldn't you?

You used the word "hypochondriac" some time ago in jest on this thread, in fact you do so on a regular basis, which I find extremely offensive, but I appreciate people, which includes you, are having a very hard time at the moment and worried and may say a few things here and there. Another person did a decent job of being understanding and diffused it. That's great, that's how this forum should run, I hope that continues.

There is a poster here who has said they have anxiety and I was talking to them. You do actually know this . If any of that stuff applies to anyone else out there then all the better. I have on numerous occasions tried to reassure people about asthma. I've had this in real life actually and that one's a challenge. The old Easter rush on prescriptions eh. The difficulty on the topic of asthma relating to coronavirus on-line and specifically here is where do you draw the line if someone perhaps doesn't want to talk about it in personal matters and wants instead to talk about it in news & current affairs in the bear pit, in the middle of a pandemic. It's a difficult one. It's a difficult one in real life.

Enlightened books I have call it health anxiety . It's not actually called health anxiety in the DSM, your too-clever-by-half-answer isn't actually true and raises a semantic point about language around anxiety. Health anxiety as a word is used in various ways to cover various things. A lot of people use it for health anxiety-like symptoms because they abhor people like you using the other h word all the time. They also use it as in general, anxiety is vastly underdiagnosed in the UK and the best you can often hope for is a GP saying you have 'anxiety'. Or that you get a hint off the GP trying to reassure you about worries about health/bodily sensations/fears. Sometimes GPs use the two 'true' names for health anxiety or aspects of that when talking symptoms, but it's frowned upon as it scares patients or patients come out asking what on earth does that mean? The differential diagnoses listed instead of validating your point (ooh we should reverentially only use it specifically where it's been diagnosed and under no other circumstances even though a lot of people with it will never get a 'specific' diagnosis), says nah mate there's loads of overlap with other anxiety disorders. One enlightened book I have particularly makes the point about how difficult it is to separate health anxiety from other (similar and specific) anxiety conditions.

I disagree with your point fundamentally. I have met many, many people/patients with asthma and in normal times many worry (which isn't always visible) and I think they should talk to their GP (in normal times) and be able to get help for any possible anxiety symptoms associated with it. I want those with asthma, with or without anxiety, to be empowered to have difficult conversations with health professionals. I want more time dedicated to asthma clinics, I want the bar to be raised, I want underdiagnosed asthma to be tackled. I want people in families to talk about it. I want people in the street to talk to other friends about it. If they have worries I want them to talk in private to someone they trust. The problem with asthma as had been said multiple times now asthma is a very diverse condition that millions of people have and as with anxiety there's a large spectrum of people where the more educated with asthma say the sort of frustrations on this thread. There's then complete puzzlement that people are saying 'weird stuff'. The NHS recognises this as the last 2-3 years there is more support around how anxiety interacts with long term health conditions, but we're only just getting started on that one . The imported inhalers that come along a complex supply chain when used properly with free at the point of use or at most paying prescription charges, some of which are very expensive to the NHS are awesome. They are absolutely awesome. Let's get the full benefit and keep everyone safe.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

NHS England and NHS Improvement (@NHSEngland) tweeted at 2:45 pm on Tue, Apr 14, 2020:
Over the Easter Bank Holiday weekend we delivered over 48 million PPE items to #OurNHSPeople — including 23 million gloves, 8.6 million aprons, 4.5 million eye protectors, 1.9 million surgical masks, 753,000 FFP3 masks, 160,000 fit test solutions, and over 135,000 gowns. https://t.co/5e3FwBpfpM
(
View: https://twitter.com/NHSEngland/status/1250057502470950912?s=09
)

Good effort by NHS England/NHS Improvement - that's a lot of much needed PPE etc distributed.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

I'm not going to hunt at random in the Guardian or the Daily Mail.

The clinical frailty scale published by Nice in response to Covid-19 stops at 9. My 87 year old father would be between a four and a five on that scale.

Your link just takes me to start of this thread. Much as I’d like to get stuck in an infinite ground hog day search...🤔

 

[mjr]

Just a snippet for the people arguing that Sweden's "success" means the lockdown here is unnecessary [...]
114 deaths in Sweden taking them over 1000 - they have ~10 million population, and have very roughly half the per capita deaths we do, but many times more than other Scandi countries.

Indeed so. They're doing better than the UK but worse than their neighbours. Interestingly, they aren't doing so much worse than their neighbours in absolute cases, but they are in deaths per capita. Attached two graphs exploring the numbers.