Coronavirus outbreak

[Wobblers]

Maybe, but the Chinese authorities allege that the virus transferred to a human in the Wuhan sea market. So it's not just a chance encounter in some marketplace, but a chance encounter in a specific marketplace, which coincidentally is just down the road from one of their virus labs.

It is totally understandable that the Chinese would want to research Coronaviruses in light of SARS and MERS. I am not suggesting the virus was engineered or deliberately let loose. I am saying that it seems at least as likely the virus transferred to humans in the course of their virus research than it did from their wet market.

I have read that the virus may have transferred from bats to pangolins and then from pangolins to humans. Alright, I don't know, do lots of Pangolins suffer from Coronavirus? In any event, that is two species the virus has to jump. Bats to humans is only one.

Firstly, coincidences happen. In fact, they happen all the time. Thousands of things happen to you every day. That means odd million-to-one events are surprisingly common. Untold thousands of them happen every day in Britain, just because so many things happen to all 66 million of us. If it didn't - well, that would be weird, wouldn't it?

Secondly, it is by no means clear that the vicinity of the Wuhan seafood market was the site of the original coronavirus to human transmission. It does seem to be the focus of early community transmission of the virus, but the original inter-species infection may have taken place elsewhere, and that elsewhere need not have been local. As yet we don't even know who the index case is, so it is simply impossible to know where and when the original cross-species infection happened. On a simple probability basis, somewhere outside of a lab is more likely, given that there are many millions of more opportunities for it to happen. Coincidence may make for good conspiracies, but not for good science.

 

[stowie]

I have read that the virus may have transferred from bats to pangolins and then from pangolins to humans. Alright, I don't know, do lots of Pangolins suffer from Coronavirus? In any event, that is two species the virus has to jump. Bats to humans is only one.

Yes, that is precisely why Pangolins are suspected to be somewhere in this virus chain as strains very similar to the one causing the current pandemic have been found in them.

 

[Low Gear Guy]

Just seen Jet2 intends to start holiday flights again from June 1

Do they know something we don’t?
.

In order to go on holiday in June you would need:
No lockdown in UK
No lockdown in holiday location
Flight
Travel insurance that covers all risks

I can't see all four being available until at least August.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Firstly, coincidences happen. In fact, they happen all the time. Thousands of things happen to you every day. That means odd million-to-one events are surprisingly common. Untold thousands of them happen every day in Britain, just because so many things happen to all 66 million of us. If it didn't - well, that would be weird, wouldn't it?

Secondly, it is by no means clear that the vicinity of the Wuhan seafood market was the site of the original coronavirus to human transmission. It does seem to be the focus of early community transmission of the virus, but the original inter-species infection may have taken place elsewhere, and that elsewhere need not have been local. As yet we don't even know who the index case is, so it is simply impossible to know where and when the original cross-species infection happened. On a simple probability basis, somewhere outside of a lab is more likely, given that there are many millions of more opportunities for it to happen. Coincidence may make for good conspiracies, but not for good science.

Much easier to make crap up.

 

[Inertia]

Much easier to make crap up.

It seems like more work. More fun to do and watch the results of your speculation maybe.

 

[Wobblers]

Much easier to make crap up.

I reject your baseless insinuation. I'll have you know that I only produce the highest quality BS

 

[Eziemnaik]

And the very last piece of science for tonight, basically confirming laughed at 2 weeks ago opinion of prof Gupta that there already are many millions of infections
https://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/32...H2sa5I578P0FY_Gz4Qwve54T7gxlS0-PaY7_DHRk2n0PQ

 

[lane]

Seems fairly obvious. One of the top bods in UK was saying a week ago that 3% to 5% of UK are infected which is also consistent with anticipated number of deaths if the fatality rate is 1% or lower.

 

[Wobblers]

And the very last piece of science for tonight, basically confirming laughed at 2 weeks ago opinion of prof Gupta that there already are many millions of infections
https://www.uni-goettingen.de/en/32...H2sa5I578P0FY_Gz4Qwve54T7gxlS0-PaY7_DHRk2n0PQ

Err, no. No it doesn't.

Gupta suggested that up to half the UK population was infected by mid March. This estimate is for 2 million infections as of 31st March. That is an order of magnitude difference.

 

[Yellow Fang]

Since SARS, there has been much research into coronaviruses - because virologists have suspected that if coronaviruses could jump species and infect humans once, it was likely that this would happen again. In light of that, it's best to try and understand as much as possible about them, so as to find out ways to reduce the chances of human infection and find ways to deal with them.

MERS and now SARS-CoV2-19 have shown that their suspicions were all too accurate. This is the thing - we already have two examples where a coronavirus jumped species into humans without the assistance of laboratories. Furthermore, there occur thousands of chances every day of cross-species infection outside of a lab. We know that coronaviruses can do this by themselves. They have far more opportunity to do so outside of a lab. It is far more likely that this arose in some chance encounter in some marketplace.

Well the intermediary species probably was not Pangolins. They were not on the list of species sold at the sea market, the first know case had no connection to the market, and at least one paper has concluded it wasn't them.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-come-from-was-it-really-wuhans-animal-market
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25731

To be fair, in this paper they conclude that the virus did not escape from a lab, although they could not rule it out. I didn't understand it very well, but I think the jist was that too many mutations were needed for the jump from bats to humans to be successful. Either the virus had to jump to a species with an immune system more similar to ours first, or there were repeated cross infections from animals to humans and maybe a bit of limited human to human infection before the final mutation occurred that allowed the virus to really take off.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

This article says the virus did not escape from a lab, although the author considered it a possibility. It says the virus had a mutation to protect itself from immune attack, which it would not have evolved in a culture dish.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-not-human-made-lab-genetic-analysis-nature

OTOH this article points the finger at the Wuhan virus lab. It says the Chinese state issued a directive tightening up viral security measures at their virology labs shortly after the outbreak, that viruses have escaped from labs before, that they had sent their top biological warfare man to Wuhan to contain the outbreak, and that some lab workers used to make extra money by selling on their animals.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-...have-leaked-from-a-lab/?utm_source=reddit.com

There are quite a few articles on the web saying the virus did not originate in the Wuhan sea market, and that the very earliest victims did not have a link to the market. So if the virus did not come from the market, where did it come from? If someone brought in the virus from outside Wuhan, why didn't the epidemic break out from where it was imported from?

 

[Eziemnaik]

Seems fairly obvious. One of the top bods in UK was saying a week ago that 3% to 5% of UK are infected which is also consistent with anticipated number of deaths if the fatality rate is 1% or lower.

Which, according to the paper I linked before is well below 1%, closer to 0.1%

 

[gavgav]

Is this a respectable enough source?
https://www.businessinsider.com/bor...ked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
Or is The Guardian the only legitimate source on here?

No

 

[Racing roadkill]

I think every single virologist in the world would disagree with you......it's called natural selection, that's why viruses are so effective. They mutate spontaneously.

However, the U.S.A. officially classify it as a “biological agent” ( as in a biological weapon) now and use anti terror legislation to deal with anyone claiming to be deliberately spreading it.

 

[winjim]

However, the U.S.A. officially classify it as a “biological agent” ( as in a biological weapon) now and use anti terror legislation to deal with anyone claiming to be deliberately spreading it.

SMH

 

[alicat]

^^^ what does SMH mean, @winjim?