Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

Does anyone know what happened on 14 March in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Estona? @steveindenmark? @roubaixtuesday? Anyone else?

I ask because when clicking around on https://www.datacat.cc/covid/ I found that those five nations were following a similar trajectory of number of cases to the Italy/France curve (doubles every three days) up to that date, then all of them seem to change to a slightly lower trajectory on that date. Germany did not change course, nor did Italy or France. Spain does worse throughout.

I've not shown the UK or the other Baltic-bordering countries on that plot because we were earlier in our outbreaks than the threshold I've used.

Could it be significant or am I finding patterns emerging from random noise by looking too hard?

 

[numbnuts]

How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.

Dead right ….opps it is the last known cause that killed you, dying of cancer – car accident = accidental death.
These high figures “could” be a lot lower.

 

[Rocky]

Dead right ….opps it is the last known cause that killed you, dying of cancer – car accident = accidental death.
These high figures “could” be a lot lower.

They are not......this is a nasty pandemic and our hospitals are being over-whelmed.

(This news is from the front line from my son who is working in Covid care at a London Hospital..........he has just had to have an end of life discussion with one patient)

 

[DaveReading]

Latest example of muddled thinking by HMG - I didn't see today's press conference, but the Health Secretary is being quoted as saying "Stay at home this weekend; that's an instruction, not a request".

Er, no, it isn't as there is no meaningful distinction between the two terms.

It's either something you should do (i.e. dependent on your conscience, common sense and how public-spirited you are) or something that you must, by law do.

I'll be out on the bike this weekend (solo on quiet roads, presenting a danger to no-one) and I'll continue to do so until such time as the law tells me I can't legally do so.

 

[mjr]

Some people are complaining about being asked to sign Do Not Resuscitate papers for elderly parents. But not all, it seems:

 

[kingrollo]

True.

In years gone by, the NHS used to send its failed hospital managers/CEs to the Strategic Health Authority, a kind of gulag of NHS incompetence, where they used to spend a year or two in nothing that was public facing or harmful to anyone. When hopefully the public had forgotten about them, they were booted out into another NHS region as a hospital manager there. This process started to fall down when simply googling the manager's name revealed just what their failings were at their last hospital and made for some great press conferences that did not go the way the NHS intended.

The Strategic Health Authorities were abolished some years ago. I wonder where the useless managers that they are afraid to dismiss go now?

They weren't abolished - they are just called CCG s !!!!

 

[kingrollo]

How many CV19 deaths are of people who sadly would have died anyway. Could well be many are terminally unwell and that was put down of the cause of death.

I'm sure Boris and Hancock will be giving us those figures in the next couple of weeks.

 

[mjr]

Just a thought, how about next Thursday at 8pm we all step out of our doorways to boo our disapproval of this government's non handling of the situation and its decade of attack on the NHS and other public services.

Let's get this idea some traction and put the focus back where it should be.

I think another day of the week may work better and not get participants lynched. I suggest a Monday at 2030 the time Boris announced the lockdown.

 

[Adam4868]

Johnson out of quarantine....

View: https://twitter.com/Wade73605662/status/1245773901554159617?s=19

 

[tom73]

They are not......this is a nasty pandemic and our hospitals are being over-whelmed.

(This news is from the front line from my son who is working in Covid care at a London Hospital..........he has just had to have an end of life discussion with one patient)

Never a great thing but now even worse at least he had time to ask them and explain things.
I worry that many won’t get that sadly, it happens often now without the extra pressure of current situation.

 

[kingrollo]

Never mind obeying the rules.......wtf are they first ??

 

[tom73]

Just a thought, how about next Thursday at 8pm we all step out of our doorways to boo our disapproval of this government's non handling of the situation and its decade of attack on the NHS and other public services.

Let's get this idea some traction and put the focus back where it should be.

To be fair the attack started well before that which ever colour the donkey was.

 

[winjim]

They already did the booing thing. That you don't know that should tell you how successful it was.

 

[Stephenite]

Does anyone know what happened on 14 March in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Estona? @steveindenmark? @roubaixtuesday? Anyone else?

I ask because when clicking around on https://www.datacat.cc/covid/ I found that those five nations were following a similar trajectory of number of cases to the Italy/France curve (doubles every three days) up to that date, then all of them seem to change to a slightly lower trajectory on that date. Germany did not change course, nor did Italy or France. Spain does worse throughout.

View attachment 512417

I've not shown the UK or the other Baltic-bordering countries on that plot because we were earlier in our outbreaks than the threshold I've used.

Could it be significant or am I finding patterns emerging from random noise by looking too hard?

It was just prior to/and around this date that the Scandinavian countries introduced various versions of "lockdown", including schools closing, restrictions on group sizes, bar/cafe restrictions, avoid public transport, etc. Sweden has a quite liberal lockdown in relation. Estonia I dont know anything about.

I'm not sure the effects of the lockdown in itself produced the effects on the graph you've shown. I think it (i dont know just to be clear) may have been caused by a reduction in testing. All of a sudden the political tone was a lot more serious, at least here in Norway, and it may have led to a conscious decision to save the testing for when it was really needed.

Another change from 11th march (in Norway) was sending workers home who exhibited cold/flu-like symptoms. I fell foul of this on the evening of the 11th and phoned the doctor the next day. He said we are not testing people unless they fulfill more stringent criteria.

My guess is that the testing regime changed, and that caused the change in the trajectory in the graph.

I'm writing this with quarantined kids running around screaming. I hope it makes some sense.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Have I got news for you right now. Bloody hilarious!