Coronavirus outbreak

[Racing roadkill]

As to how long a lockdown could go on Councils have been given the powers to hold committee meetings virtually until 7 May 2021

I’d expect degree of lockdown for a couple of years, until we know how this thing behaves season on season. I wouldn’t expect the degree of lockdown we have now to continue for more than a couple of months though.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Well although the numbers of deaths reported thus far over the last 24 hours looks like a big number, and any death is bad news, the day to day increase rate is still not showing the ballistic trajectory that was simulated ( despite the government’s best efforts to ensure it was, by changing the counting rules / moving the goal posts yet again a couple of days ago ). So there is a fair degree of hope that this is under control already.

Unfortunately, you are absolutely and completely wrong here

Current cases: 684

An exponential rise has a constant doubling time, so we can look back at when we first passed the times to double.

342: passed on 31st March - 3 days to double

171: passed on 27th March - 4 days to double

86: passed on 24th March - 3 days to double

43: passed on 21st March - 3 days to double

21 : passed on 18th March - 3 days to double

The death rate has doubled consistently every 3-4 days since we passed 20 deaths.

It's an almost perfect fit to an exponential rise.

Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Ballistic is, alas, a very good description. We can only hope the distancing measures put in place start to show effect soon. Experience from elsewhere, due to the incubation period to symptoms showing and subsequent time from symptoms to mortality, very unfortunately suggests this may not happen for several days to come. Let's hope otherwise, as that projects to more than 2,000 daily deaths in a weeks time.

 

[Racing roadkill]

Really ? - we seem to have gone from around 100 deaths per day to close on 700 per day. Were getting pretty close to Spain and Italy levels ?

Don't forget the daily stats are hospital deaths - so once the hospitals fill up, the figure we remain at that level - despite more dying at home.

No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.

 

[Smokin Joe]

The number of confirmed cases have reached one million world wide, with 51,000 deaths. That is a death rate of 5.1%, but as the first figure only counts those who were unwell enough to seek medical help and up to 80% of those who catch it have either mild or no symptoms which mostly go unrecorded the actual death rate must be considerably lower, especially if you take into account that many who did not survive were at or near end of life anyway.

 

[Racing roadkill]

Unfortunately, you are absolutely and completely wrong here

Current cases: 684

An exponential rise has a constant doubling time, so we can look back at when we first passed the times to double.

342: passed on 31st March - 3 days to double

171: passed on 27th March - 4 days to double

86: passed on 24th March - 3 days to double

43: passed on 21st March - 3 days to double

21 : passed on 18th March - 3 days to double

The death rate has doubled consistently every 3-4 days since we passed 20 deaths.


It's an almost perfect fit to an exponential rise.

Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

Ballistic is, alas, a very good description. We can only hope the distancing measures put in place start to show effect soon. Experience from elsewhere, due to the incubation period to symptoms showing and subsequent time from symptoms to mortality, very unfortunately suggests this may not happen for several days to come. Let's hope otherwise, as that projects to more than 2,000 daily deaths in a weeks time.

That is the biggest load of scare mongering nonsense I’ve seen yet ( and I’ve seen some ) I suggest you stop reading the Daily Mail, and actually read what has happened in the last couple of days. Take it from a slightly more credible source, ( like the BBC ) and stop trying to cherry pick nonsense to try and fit your pessimistic view.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.

Again, you are absolutely and unequivocally wrong. Again, you provide no source to back up your entirely baseless assertions.

Our rise has consistently tracked Italy's and is now looking rather worse if anything, as Italy's had already started to move away from exponential at this point. Note the data does not include today's figures.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...hich-countries-have-the-most-cases-and-deaths

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That is the biggest load of scare mongering nonsense I’ve seen yet ( and I’ve seen some ) I suggest you stop reading the Daily Mail, and actually read what has happened in the last couple of days. Take it from a slightly more credible source, ( like the BBC ) and stop trying to cherry pick nonsense to try and fit your pessimistic view.

The source is raw data form the government.

 

[newfhouse]

That is the biggest load of scare mongering nonsense I’ve seen yet ( and I’ve seen some ) I suggest you stop reading the Daily Mail, and actually read what has happened in the last couple of days. Take it from a slightly more credible source, ( like the BBC ) and stop trying to cherry pick nonsense to try and fit your pessimistic view.

Are you arguing with the arithmetic or the source data?

 

[Racing roadkill]

The number of confirmed cases have reached one million world wide, with 51,000 deaths. That is a death rate of 5.1%, but as the first figure only counts those who were unwell enough to seek medical help and up to 80% of those who catch it have either mild or no symptoms which mostly go unrecorded the actual death rate must be considerably lower, especially if you take into account that many who did not survive were at or near end of life anyway.

Quite right. Until there is blanket mass testing ( both antigen and antibody ) the true picture won’t be apparent. The feeling amongst the actual experts ( epidemiologists and the like ) is that this isn’t a particularly lethal pathogen, it’s just that an extremely unusual large number of people have it. Until we know exactly how many, and those people’s outcomes, the numbers are largely meaningless.

 

[Racing roadkill]

The source is raw data form the government.

Which shouldn’t be interpreted by anyone except experts.

 

[kingrollo]

No we’re not. The balllistic trajectory model had us closer to 1000 deaths a day by now. We are not Italy, it’s a nonsense to compare the U.K. to Italy, our social demographic is completely different to Italy, and we have reacted accordingly, Italy didn’t react according to its demographic, and is now seeing the result. Unless our government changes the counting rules again ( I don’t doubt they’ll try ) we should see a flat line in rates of increase of deaths or even a decrease. Forget using Italy as any sort of yard stick, it’s a case apart.

Wait and see.

The ageing population thing has been to an extent exploded - as those people aren't out and about so much. Hence why so many people in there 50's get infected (they still work)

In days since first death we reacted about the same time line as Italy - and our lockdown isn't as tight.

 

[newfhouse]

Which shouldn’t be interpreted by anyone except experts.

Not interpretation, counting.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Which shouldn’t be interpreted by anyone except experts.

That's *exactly* what you did! You made a series of assertions based solely on your own interpretation without any expert basis whatever, entirely unsourced and in direct contradiction to the facts.

 

[Pale Rider]

Regional breakdown for the latest daily death figures in England:

East of England 66
London 161
Midlands 150
North East & Yorkshire 62
North West 88
South East 41
South West 36
TOTAL 604

The figures follow population density as would be expected, but the North West stands out.

I would expect that region to give a similar number to London and the Midlands, rather than about half.

Any ideas why that should be?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Regional breakdown for the latest daily death figures in England:

East of England 66
London 161
Midlands 150
North East & Yorkshire 62
North West 88
South East 41
South West 36
TOTAL 604

The figures follow population density as would be expected, but the North West stands out.

I would expect that region to give a similar number to London and the Midlands, rather than about half.

Any ideas why that should be?

I'd be *very* cautious ascribing significance to a single day's figures. Are the cumulative figures consistent with these? What's the per capita figures?