Coronavirus outbreak

[Ming the Merciless]

To be honest, as I didn’t know whether it was Christmas or Easter, I got Band Aid....

Is that why you don’t like Mondays ?

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Stayed in Wuhan during my world travels 20 years ago. So the news images compared to my memories and photos of a vibrant city are stark.

 

[greenmark]

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser.

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.

 

[slowmotion]

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser.

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.

Do you work for a company whose products include "sanitary wipes", hand lotions, face masks and Red Top headlines?

 

[greenmark]

Do you work for a company whose products include "sanitary wipes", hand lotions, face masks and Red Top headlines?

LoL

I mention this not because these things are going to be particularly effective, but these are the things that will disappear from shops quickest.
The biggest risk, at the early stages, this isn't the infection itself but the run on stocks. For example, in HK we can't buy face masks anywhere any more. Thankfully we have not had panic buying of foods, even in China.

I feel (based on talks with family) is that perceptions in the UK are about the same as we were only one single week ago. People should be concerned but not panicked, but again don't be complacent.

 

[slowmotion]

I'm not concerned, panicking or complacent. Will I get ill?

 

[cookiemonster]

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser.

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.

Where in Hong Kong are you?

 

[cookiemonster]

LoL

I mention this not because these things are going to be particularly effective, but these are the things that will disappear from shops quickest.
The biggest risk, at the early stages, this isn't the infection itself but the run on stocks. For example, in HK we can't buy face masks anywhere any more. Thankfully we have not had panic buying of foods, even in China.

I feel (based on talks with family) is that perceptions in the UK are about the same as we were only one single week ago. People should be concerned but not panicked, but again don't be complacent.

True. However, I'm off to South Korea on Friday so I'm going to grab some when I'm over there.

 

[MichaelW2]

With modern transport links and massive cities, potential epidemic diseases need to be addressed very rapidly before they spin out of control. Small differences in mortality rate can have big impacts on the number of deaths in a pandemic.
Besides the health issues, this incident is having a significant economic impact which is, as we like to day here, not to be sniffed at.
China is well equipped to deal with a pandemic, being an authoritarian, centralized power. This power was misused in the SARS outbreak and the authorities have realized their errors.
As official statements don't day: 'Anyone who behaves now like the Communist Party of China behaved during the SARS outbreak will be punished severely"

 

[cookiemonster]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinio...s-crisis-sars-epidemic-was-worsened-communist

The CCP didn't do themselves any favours. Apparently, they knew about this a full month before they admitted that there was a problem. This happened during SARS.

 

[Fab Foodie]

Is that why you don’t like Mondays ?

Or, that European capital city who’s name escapes me.....
Oh Vienna!

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-link-china-biowarfare-program-possible/

Coronavirus may have originated in lab linked to China's biowarfare program

shurely not? Pretty crap biowarfare program if they've developed something that gives the enemy a dose of sniffles.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Or, that European capital city who’s name escapes me.....
Oh Vienna!

Sunday, bloody Sunday!

 

[Low Gear Guy]

Am in Hong Kong. I can share a few pointers on what to do.

First, I've seen R0 transmission rate models that of between 2.2 and 2.6. This is the number of people each infected person in turn infects. Note the models seem well researched but also the more drastic models are the ones that are more likely to be shared so I may not have seen other lighter models. Based on R0 of 2.5 one should expect between 60% and 90% of the world's population to be infected at some point.

In Hong Kong we've gone into full SARS mode. People here know the drill. The measures people are taking were the ones implemented to get SARS rate down below R0=1. So, all public events are being cancelled. Everyone is wearing a surgical mask out of home (although technically only infectious people wear need wear one, and technically you could get arrested for it as a protestor). Wash your hands every 30 minutes or so with alcohol sanitiser or soap and water.

My suggestions - be prepared for when this reaches Europe. Right now the one thing you should do is stock up on hand sanitiser.

Once it starts getting into Europe start stocking up on face masks. Then stock up on household essentials such as tinned food. Get into the habit of washing your hands frequently and wash thoroughly for at least 20 seconds each time. Get some surgical face masks if you can - this won't necessarily help you but will reduce you passing it on to others.

Be prepared also for lockdowns similar to Foot & Mouth. This will include cancellation of large public events such as RideLondon, marathons etc.

Shall we cancel all Brexit celebrations?

 

[Rezillo]

Very difficult to get hard information on cases but this is an interesting if rather worrying article:

Lancet article