Coronavirus outbreak

Page may contain affiliate links. Please see terms for details.

newfhouse

Resolutely on topic
CV tracking app' - good idea or too Big Brother? I'm for it if it helps the fight:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52095331
It’s not a yes/no answer. Who owns and controls the data and what will happen to it when this is over?
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
I would imagine pure chances of survival, health issues vs clean bill of health.

Whatever the guidelines I don’t envy anyone having to make those calls.
The established protocol used to be to prioritise on the basis of expected quality adjusted life years, so basically the probability of survival multiplied by the number of years remaining in life expectancy reduced by the percentage impairment you're expected to suffer (so a year of life but on frequent dialysis is valued less than a year of life without that, but more than a year permanently on oxygen) There are injustices in that and several ways that medical opinion affect it, which is why multiple doctors have to agree, but it's the least worst system found so far :sad:

I'm not aware of recent changes to this basic assessment method but it may have changed.
 

ozboz

Guru
Location
Richmond ,Surrey
This ethics discussion on Radio 4 this morning was an interesting listen. I’m still not sure where I stand on how care will need to be rationed, and I’m glad I won’t have to make such judgements. First come, first served? Age? Chance of survival? Perceived societal value? Horrific choices, all.
I’m glad I didn’t listen to that discussion ,I’d be a bit more depressed than I already am , on the judgements you mentioned , I’d just about scrape through as a first come stat , :sad:
 

SpokeyDokey

68, & my GP says I will officially be old at 70!
Moderator
Is anyone else concerned by the deaths to recovery ratio being recorded for Britain? As they currently stand, the Public Heath England figures cite 1789 deaths and 135 recoveries from 25150 confirmed cases. This means that of all the "concluded" cases (i.e. all those that have resulted in either death or recovery) the vast majority (around 92%) are deaths.

I appreciate that recoveries might take longer to confirm than deaths (the former requiring a certain symptom-free period to be sure, while death is pretty obvious and conclusive!). It's also possible that this could also be explained by a low proportion of tests being carried out; and if so most likely being administered only in the most severe of cases (i.e. when people are admitted to hospital, which seems to be the case currently).

Still, I find this very concerning since every other country shows a much higher proportion of recoveries to deaths, with even Italy recording only around 45% of "concluded" cases as resulting in death compared to our 92%. This trend has also been fairly consistant throughout the whole process in both countries (as illustrated nicely in Wikipedia's timeline bar charts for both the UK and Italy); rather than showing any lag. Perhaps Italy's process for confirming recoveries are less stringent than ours?

This is also worrying given that we currently have around 25k confirmed cases and following Italy's example it's likely that this will increase by a factor of four or five before it levels out. If the mortality rate remains as it is now we're looking at the vast majority of those cases resulting in death, so potentially in the region of 100,000 fatalities :blink:

Can anyone shed any more light on this please?

I'm not sure that that sort of speculation is very helpful tbh.

Re mortality rates. I'm sticking with something between the WHO's 3.4% global projection and Chris Witty's 1% UK projection for now as I have to confess to being supremely unqualified to comment much on likely final death rates and volumes.
 

mjr

Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
It’s not a yes/no answer. Who owns and controls the data and what will happen to it when this is over?
How easy will it be to fake a negative from it? If pubs are only checking display, a screenshot would fool most. If there's a challenge-response protocol, someone will probably sniff it and build an app that always responds clean. If there's a central database, how will businesses be stopped from harvesting it and misusing it? How will government abuses be prevented? Or government access keys being left on a USB stick in public place?

It's one of those things that the masses may well embrace, conditioned by years of being data-raped by "social" network apps with little government criticism (because they benefit from it but have plausible deniability), but it's a massive public infrastructure vulnerability which government should hesitate to support.

And it's only a vulnerability, so we won't know yes or no until years later, if we ever know.
 

newfhouse

Resolutely on topic
Nicest tits?



(sorry)
That pair of lungs looks worth saving?



Equally sorry.
 

tom73

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
It'll be interesting to see what things are like when I get back to the lab. Obviously we treat all samples as a potential infection risk but I think COVID-19 has been designated a category 3 pathogen requiring special precautions, so if we are going to treat every patient as potentially infected, things could get difficult.

For reference, cat 3 includes things like HIV and Hepatitis C and requires special precautions in the lab. The next one up, cat 4, is stuff like Ebola, requiring specialist facilities not available in most hospital laboratories.

like you say be interesting if as the government is encouraging all hospital labs to use every bit extra capacity for staff testing.
The amount of possible Covid-19 samples will increase so without changers to work practice.
It's going to be difficult to keep every thing running effectively and at the same time keeping everyone safe.
 

winjim

Smash the cistern
like you say be interesting if as the government is encouraging all hospital labs to use every bit extra capacity for staff testing.
The amount of possible Covid-19 samples will increase so without changers to work practice.
It's going to be difficult to keep every thing running effectively and at the same time keeping everyone safe.
Extra capacity lol. They're right in the middle of a plan to close down as many hospital labs as they can possibly get away with.

Anyway, I'm not just thinking of Covid-19 cases, I'm wondering what will happen if we designate all samples as presumptive positives.
 
Top Bottom