Coronavirus outbreak

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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
It's important to understand that PCR and antibody tests are not equivalent.

The antibody kits are looking for antibodies that are produced by the immune system a few days after infection. That means someone can be infected, yet test negative. In fact, they'll almost certainly test negative in the important first few days where they're asymptomatic but can still infect others. It is however, very useful in identifying which people have been exposed to the virus (and are now hopefully resistant).

The PCR test is sensitive to virtal RNA. It can't identify whether or not someone has been exposed to the virus. It will unambiguously identify where someone has an active infection. It can tell you who should - must - be quarantined. Hence your suggestion that someone who tests positve with the antibosy test should be isolated until the PCR test comes back clear. Unfortunately this isn't enough - this will miss those in the early stages.

The tests aren't equivalent (there was a very obvious hint in there you missed that alluded to them not being the same) and this has been said farther back in the thread. Ideally as you say they should be isolated and tested under both regimes (this is not a real world consideration any longer and hasn't been for some time- maybe in the winter or summer). This has massive advantages as it means less waiting. Or only PCR testing on those that test positive on antibodies or other suspicion from medical evidence. However, the shortage of tests means even PHE seem to have been talking along using the antibody test. Witty and Valance basically said there's a worldwide shortage of PCR materials and we're screwed. France, Ireland and many other countries have all been making ridiculous promises about bumping up PCR whilst at the same time screaming about shortages.

The antibody test the UK's believed to be looking into doesn't work the first three days of infection. Originally it seems the UK believed that it was much longer than 3 days it didn't work and it's changed its mind and that's why it's buying them and being tested in Oxford. One aspect the UK and other governments didn't like probably because it would lead to criticism was some of the other claims of antibody tests.

As said farther back there are other sorts of tests discussed less in the UK or variants on the PCR, the mobile qPCR. This has been discussed less in recent days, quite possibly because of shortages this renders this fantastic piece of tech completely and utterly useless as it can't be used.

There's basically not enough PCR and loads of hospital staff are going to be seriously hospitalised and running close to dying because of it. There are many other ways of trying to protect the staff such as PPE or people staying at home, but it's not great not being able to have that to help.

Vallance was saying yesterday about tracking the spread and is keen on using antibody tests to see where it's been, how many patients have been asymptomatic and working out the proportion. I know they want very nice peer reviewed papers and to be as accurate as possible, but I feel it's a mistake waiting till it's perfect in their eyes. There are already a lot of false positives and false negatives under medical diagnosis as the scientific debate seems to be whether 50% of patients show no symptoms of whether that's even higher at 80%.

Anyway I said yesterday that I wasn't going to read any more on PCR as it's winding me up how incompetent the western world are, so not only are my posts going to get shorter on the matter that annoy people and lead to misunderstandings like yourself, but I'm not going to post them at all.

At the very least the antibody test may give some certainty and keep some people without the virus out of hospital and milder cases out of hospital and so on and so forth as discussed the last few days when PHE finally became interested in them seriously.
 
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marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Just out:

"As of 9am on 25 March 2020, a total of 97,019 people have been tested, of which 87,490 were confirmed negative and 9,529 were confirmed positive. 463 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died."

It was said twice yesterday that we would get up to 25,000 a day, but that it'd be four weeks until that happened. France, Ireland and various other countries also made similar hollow promises.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Morrisons paying lip service to the 2m restriction and some of Joe Public simply have not got a clue.

The things you quote are everyday occurrences in supermarkets which I know you worked in retail, but just must have been way too high up to realise this. It will take time to reduce them, but they will reduce. It's a lot better than the Italian system where large crowds were huddled together outside supermarkets in the days after it was brought in. The photos of orderly queues around blocks in Italy are not true to life, they came in a long time after the restrictions. We're doing all right. Keep at it.

One of the difficulties is there won't be time for people to faff around like before spending 2 or 3 minutes pondering over product x or whatever. The selfish person is the one that doesn't grab and go under the new regime. I saw this myself in a supermarket where someone approached to grab and the other person got angry, but it was the person blocking's fault as much as the person grabbing. Of course the arse perusing wouldn't listen to the other two people.
 

Mike_P

Guru
Location
Harrogate
Just been to Sainsbury's, 2m marking on floors but the aisles are that wide at most and people going both ways. Staff stood around as if immune including two at the entrance 2m apart but where are you supposed to go:wacko: Used hand scanner and own bag but no obvious facility to clean the scanner or the pay touchscreen.
 

Smudge

Veteran
Location
Somerset
Dyson have been ordered to make 10,000 ventilators:eek: surley they could find a company that doesn't charge 4x more for their products than everyone else :banghead: he'll be crowing about his special futuristic bellows that he will be convinced is the future..

I should visit the " companies you won't use after" thread

He already got his rip off priced fans into hospitals and other care establishments.
I wont use Dyson after, but i never bought their ludicrously overpriced products before either.
 

marinyork

Resting in suspended Animation
Location
Logopolis
Just been to Sainsbury's, 2m marking on floors but the aisles are that wide at most and people going both ways. Staff stood around as if immune including two at the entrance 2m apart but where are you supposed to go:wacko: Used hand scanner and own bag but no obvious facility to clean the scanner or the pay touchscreen.

You could always get a job in a supermarket yourself and prove you do a better job of it...
 

Smudge

Veteran
Location
Somerset
One of the few who actually have manufacturing facilities here though.

Thought he moved production to Asia. Plus his HQ as well.
 

MarkF

Guru
Location
Yorkshire
It's not possible for NHS staff to work 2m apart from their colleagues, never mind patients. But the last 2 days I've arrived at noon and found every duty room rammed (because the hospital is so quiet) with doctors, nurses, radiologists and porters cheek by jowl on their phones. In my changing room my workmate was talking to me whilst I was getting changed and I actually felt spittle on my arm, I said "Andy FFS, personal space please" he replied "But we are mates". ^_^

The hospital is well prepared for a ramp up of arrivals, it won't be overwhelmed, only the ICU remains a potential problem. The care home arrivals are still bothering me though, they seem certain to increase and they won't be going to ICU.:sad:
 

Rocky

Hello decadence
Aye, I'm sure we'll all be paying attention when we're on a hospital bed struggling to breathe "No Dr, I don't want that ventilator, can I have a different one please?"
I think if it’s not up to the standard of those ventilators produced by specialist companies we won’t be capable of ever saying anything again. It’s the quality I’m worried about....
 

Duffy

Über Member
I have already said, who are you to judge when someone has to work out how they are going to put food on the table for their family???? And again, nothing is black and white, every situation is different. If I was a builder, I would not want to go to one of the construction sites we have been seeing, however, 1 person repairing/building/maintaining something while following PHE guidelines is a totally different situation.

I’m genuinely not blind to the dire situation of the self employed and I can understand your point of view entirely.

However, a builder, with the best will in the world, could well be infectious and asymptomatic. If he’s coming and going from peoples houses, possibly the elderly/infirm/with underlying health conditions, how can he genuinely guarantee that he won’t leave something behind???

A paper mask isn’t going to hack it
 
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