Coronavirus outbreak

[Mugshot]

i just saw an old lady getting told off for buying 3 packets of lockets.
She had to put one back. I’m glad the supermarkets are now enforcing the panic buying.

The son of a friend of my wife works in Tesco, he was saying that they are enforcing the max purchases, but they are seeing the same people doing the same shop, day after day after day.

 

[Rocky]

The NSW police have drawn up a list of things to panic buy:


View: https://twitter.com/nswpolice/status/1240838046863388672?s=21

 

[Pale Rider]

I wonder if Tim Martin and Stanley Johnson would volunteer to sit (right) next to a confirmed, infectious Corona virus victim in an over-heated pub.

I could probably have a wild stab at the answer...

It's more likely the Corona punter wouldn't want to sit next to Tim, and particularly Stanley.

I reckon everything survives on a ‘spoons carpet. Before long they’ll be the most sentient lifeform in there.

I remember my shoes literally sticking to the carpet in a couple of Sunderland city centre's disco bars.

Good news for the management, though.

I was friendly at the time with the area manager of Vaux Brewery.

"I've just put a six grand new carpet in there," he said, referring to a grotty Sunderland estate pub.
"Unfortunately for me, they will never wear it out."

 

[Blue Hills]

There is a god....

God any **ing god is nowhere in any of this.

 

[snorri]

My household food stocks are running down, but I can last until next week without replenishing. Is it sound thinking to believe that the panic buyers will have exhausted all of their home storage space by next week and that I should be able to shop as normal on Monday or Tuesday?

 

[Blue Hills]

My household food stocks are running down, but I can last until next week without replenishing. Is it sound thinking to believe that the panic buyers will have exhausted all of their home storage space by next week and that I should be able to shop as normal on Monday or Tuesday?

This is my approach. Pretty hopeful. Will post more on my morning bike ride/shopping scout later.

 

[Poacher]

My household food stocks are running down, but I can last until next week without replenishing. Is it sound thinking to believe that the panic buyers will have exhausted all of their home storage space by next week and that I should be able to shop as normal on Monday or Tuesday?

Not necessarily; many will be selling pasta, bogrolls etc. at massively inflated prices at car boots over the weekend and will need to replenish their stock next week.

 

[Bazzer]

i just saw an old lady getting told off for buying 3 packets of lockets.
She had to put one back. I’m glad the supermarkets are now enforcing the panic buying.

A next door neighbour was at Aldi this morning. 7am the queue was almost 100 metres! When he finally got in the store among other items, he picked up a bunch of 7 bananas. The checkout person ripped three off and said he only allowed 4. 👍

 

[Blue Hills]

Not necessarily; many will be selling pasta, bogrolls etc. at massively inflated prices at car boots over the weekend and will need to replenish their stock next week.

Going forward they are going to be burning a lot of fuel and spending a lot of time doing that because of buying limits being put in place. I remain hopeful. Not going to starve.

 

[vickster]

Not necessarily; many will be selling pasta, bogrolls etc. at massively inflated prices at car boots over the weekend and will need to replenish their stock next week.

Hopefully those will have been banned as part of social distancing

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

It's not just the ''worst'' cases that we should be heeding. Why does Germany have 11,973 identified cases and 28 dead when the UK has only 2,626 but 104 dead? That's comparing a mortality* rate of under 0.3% with almost 4%. They're clearly doing something far better than we are. And we should be learning from there.

*It's only a mortality rate for identified cases. Identify more, i.e test, test, test and the mortality rate will fall because more will be identified.

The answer is they are performing 160,000 tests a week. we have been performing less than a quarter.

Then there is the difference in hospital facilities. "According to an article in Die Zeit from 13th March, the U.K. has 6.6 beds in ICUs per 100,000 of the population, which is fewer than in France, Italy and Spain. Germany has 29.2 beds per 100,000, the U.S. 34.7."

The reason why the WHO told the world to "Test, test, test" is explained in a comment to the article well:

"Testing is the ONLY credible reason and its simple to understand why, so suggesting that experts are "baffled" is ridiculous.

When you test widely and you make testing available to everyone who has symptoms then follow up testing on anyone whom they have contact with you achieve something very important. You catch asymptomatic carriers.

Most of spreading in such infections is done by asymptomatic carriers. People who get the disease but its so mild they don't realize they have it. Remember the English guy who caught teh disease in singapore infected everyone in a ski resort and then came back? People like him are the real danger.

Germany is catching a lot of them by making testing widespread. In addition we might discover that a lot of the cases they have identified are actually false positives, because they have probably set their sensitive as low as possible. It makes sense to not worry about false positives. No harm done from isolating someone who doesn't have the disease for 14 days.

Any "expert" who says testing is of limiting use, needs to get a clue. Every asymptomatic carrier you identify and remove results in a disproportionate drop in the reproductive number. So widespread testing is cheap, minimally disruptive and makes a very large contribution in reducing the reproductive number. Its easy to illustrate why. Suppose you have a virus with R0 = 2.5 and then with testing alone you can drop it to 2.0. What is the effect on the growth of the infection? Lets assume we start with 1 case and look at what happens for 10 infection cycles (~20 weeks).

R0 = 2.5 -->
Cycle Infected
0 1
1 2.5
2 6.25
3 15.625
4 39.0625
5 97.65625
6 244.1406
7 610.3516
8 1525.879
9 3814.697
10 9536.743

R0 = 2.0 -->
Cycle Infected
0 1
1 2
2 4
3 8
4 16
5 32
6 64
7 128
8 256
9 512
10 1024

The difference is obviously dramatic. This is what we are seeing in germany. They are detecting a lot of cases, but they are probably detect most of what is there, while in other countries like France, Spain and the UK the cases detected are the tip of the iceberg. "



Actually according to the WHO, an infection cycle for COVID-19 is approximately 4 days. Once someone has been tested positive asymptomatic or otherwise, obviously their behaviour can and will change, leading to less risk to others. Here, nobody knows, those with symptoms were just asked to go home and transmit it to everybody else in the family, and their kids still go to school, and transmit it to other families.

There is no way to sugarcoat this - we are where we are, and the real sh*te is yet to hit the fan, because of blatant failures by the Government and their "experts" - they have been asleep at the helm, and many will die as the direct result.

 

[tom73]

They maybe a buying limit but yesterday I spotted a couple shopping who each had a fully stocked up trolley.
They won't be the only ones who start going it.

 

[biggs682]

You know what makes sense....

I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look

 

[Unkraut]

UK - "We can send it packing in 12 weeks"

I can't help but wonder if the UK has been a bit complacent over the last few weeks. I hope the thing can be 'sent packing', but the route there is going to be unpleasant to say the least. It really would be folly not to consider the experience of countries like Italy who sadly are in a more advanced stage of the epidemic.

Just watched live that Bavaria is going into virtually complete lockdown now for the next two weeks. Similar to but not quite as extensive as France. Not something the government ever wanted to do. Those who still don't see the need to be sensible and do as requested can from now on reckon with very heavy fines. You can still go walking as individuals or as a family, but mustn't congregate together. I assume cycling remains allowed if done on an individual basis.

I suspect the same or similar policy is already being considered for my (@Andy in Germany our) neck of the woods.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I do but I am itching to get some miles in on my latest Look

View attachment 509315

Tasty, very tasty! I see your problem :-)