Coronavirus outbreak

[Joey Shabadoo]

Looks like we are to get a daily dose of Boris - and others.

I can't see it becoming required viewing, but I will have a look see at the first one and occasionally thereafter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51901818

 

[fossyant]

I also take Ramipril, in fact I'll be off to the pharmacy today to pick up my next 3 months' worth. I'm not planning to stop without medical advice.

My sister takes it too, but it causes her to get a dry mouth, and had a coughing fit in the gym this week. The looks she got. 'It's OK, I'm on Ramipril'.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Absolutely disgusted with this country, sons fiancee is 23 so only young but she has a heart condition and has had minor heart attacks in the past. She has developed a sore throat, tightness I the chest and a fever, rung 111 and her own gp and told to self isolate, they will test her in a week if she is no better. One way of keeping the case numbers down!! Son is also having to self isolating when he should have been starting a new job today (just his luck). Why the fiddly fark arent they testing her when she is in a high risk group! Oh that's right she is not over 60

They are not testing the over 60s unless the symptoms become very severe.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

@McWobble I think the other consideration is whether other steps that will be taken will reduce the R0 sufficiently to make a dent in the numbers. Closing bars and restaurants for example, more social distancing.

What I don't understand is what is Spain and Italy's strategy? Are they hoping a lockdown stops transmission so most of the population never catch the virus or do they expect many millions to catch it and the lockdowns are a tool to flatten the curve and reduce the R0

Like you I would be concerned with a strategy to stop it in its tracks like China. We are at least 12 months from a vaccine. Can countries with high freedom of movement maintain a lockdown or semi lockdown for a year?

I am sure McWobble will come along and give us great answers to your question, but I think the 1) "herd immunity" scenario, which would only have any meaning if 60%+ caught it etc. etc., and 2) flattening curve so demands matching nhs surge capacity scenario, are mutually exclusive. Scenario 1) will likely throw tens if not hundreds of times of patients nhs can handle into their ICUs as I alluded to above. Think this is why many including me are so unhappy with Boris/CMO/CSA's "plan", which hitherto has not done enough to flatten the curve.

I think it is kind of funny that on one hand i) we say people here will not adhere to distancing restrictions like that in Korea, and it is a reason why we should accept 60%+ catching it in a wave so that we can be immune happily after, while on the other hand ii) the latter requires putting the elderly and ill young in much much stricter isolation for months, because with i) the vast majority of the population remains uninfected hence inevitable carelessness are unlikely to infect - only 0.17% of Hubei are infected e.g., while for ii) the vulnerable will be living amongst everybody who are either infected or to be infected and none of them would know who's still infectious but they are all around them. If i) won't work here, why would ii)?

On top of that, do we accept that: a) nobody knows if herd immunity works for this new virus, b) hitherto for killer virus countries developed and relied on herd immunity by giving the vast majority vaccines, not a virus that kills, c) for the under 70 who did not get infected in the wave do we make sure they get infected to make up the 60%+ infected necessary, knowing it kills the young too and about 3.6% of 60-70 - do we not call that murder?, and d) even if ALL the young(er) got infected and were indeed immune next season/years, does it really put the country in a safe harbour, when someone in the Women's Institute caught it from her visitor from Timbuktu?

Why Italy and Spain, and indeed France are locking down? I think it is because nobody will risk killing close to a million to test a hypothesis with implementation challenges, will you? The only thing that is proven to "work" (only for now I admit, and it does take at least a couple of weeks to flatten the curve), is what they did in China, Singapore, Hongkong, Korea. Nobody said they are home and dry, and who knows what happens when they reopen their schools? But at least they bought themselves time and a chance, without having to kill millions.

And they are learning - I believe in Hongkong nowadays literally everyone of the few they might identify each day are associated with travellers entering the territory. So if tests can be developed with quicker result turnaround (4 hours is quickest atm I think), that door can potentially be shut with limited downside and cost too, without vaccines.

Some defend the government accepting a wave of infection to develop herd immunity by saying it may be less adverse economically and socially compared to a lockdown strategy. Has anybody seen any comparison? How many have they assumed would die from tens of millions being infected, and what are the economical and social consequences of that?

 

[glasgowcyclist]

I have no faith in any of the sound bites from random people at Westminster whose honesty has been brought in to question on so many topics in past months. Instead I'm placing my faith in the words of Jason Leitch, National Clinical Director who speaks clearly and confidently and is medically qualified. There is new stuff coming up all the time from BBC Scotland on it's own website and via Twitter. Here's a link from yesterday. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51898288

Thanks, I had seen that and there’s no information beyond what’s expected of the over 70s.

 

[ozboz]

I am not a Politician , Scientist or Doctor, but in my book if I do not go near to infected persons and infected persons do not come near me, I have less chance of succumbing to this virus, common sense that in reality has been around for centuries, up to now I’ve heard a lot about the over 70’s , this morning some woman mentioned on Sky News 65-70’s ?
A Boffin on sky basically said earlier that the UK govt is coming out with solutions from half baked flawed information that they are listening to .
Not very reassuring is it ,

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

View: https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1239528396671135745

 

[MartinQ]

🤦‍♂️

Purely as an educational opportunity :-)

View: https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

 

[numbnuts]

I am not a Politician , Scientist or Doctor, but in my book if I do not go near to infected persons and infected persons do not come near me, I have less chance of succumbing to this virus, common sense that in reality has been around for centuries, up to now I’ve heard a lot about the over 70’s , this morning some woman mentioned on Sky News 65-70’s ?
A Boffin on sky basically said earlier that the UK govt is coming out with solutions from half baked flawed information that they are listening to .
Not very reassuring is it ,

And don't touch anything outside your own home or live in a hazmat suit 24/7, I don't call that living

 

[icowden]

A Boffin on sky basically said earlier that the UK govt is coming out with solutions from half baked flawed information that they are listening to .
Not very reassuring is it ,

Any idea who the boffin is? I mean, despite Gove's assurance that we don't need experts we do have Prof Chris Whitty (DOH Top scientific advisor, and Professor of Epidemiology - also a practicing Consultant) and Sir Patrick Vallance who has a reasonable pedigree. Interestingly although there was a letter from 229 University scientists challenging his views on herd immunity, only 3 of those were epidemiologists.

 

[Dave7]

I am not a Politician , Scientist or Doctor,

What are you doing on Cycle Chat then . There seems to be loads on here
Me and MrsD are in our 70s. We have both been feeling rough since December (with the lurgy that many people got) but I think if CV comes our way we are on our own as you cant get to see a Doctor and from what I read 111** is no use at the moment.
**111 was brilliant for me 5 years ago but arw swamped now.

 

[PaulB]

And now we've got spring.....springing. And what comes with spring? Hay fever. So hay fever sufferers will be treated like lepers and their regular red eyes/runny noses and other hay fever symptoms will mark them down for suspicion and people crossing the road to avoid them.

 

[Pale Rider]

First direct impact on me - my GP surgery has moved to dial-a-doc.

I was due in tomorrow, but that will now be on the phone.

I've no big problem with that, but the doctor's first language is not English which means it's easier to communicate with him face to face.

Part of my appointment is to give the doctor the box from a style of bandages given to me at the hospital so that he can prescribe the correct type.

I will now have to hand that in at the reception.

Again, no worries, but I'm tempted to go there at appointment time and ring him for my consultation from the waiting area.

 

[marinyork]

If anyone is interested a favourite youtube channel has done a vid on coronavirus (they don't do many vids)


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-E_Okc_Fp3w

 

[ozboz]

Any idea who the boffin is? I mean, despite Gove's assurance that we don't need experts we do have Prof Chris Whitty (DOH Top scientific advisor, and Professor of Epidemiology - also a practicing Consultant) and Sir Patrick Vallance who has a reasonable pedigree. Interestingly although there was a letter from 229 University scientists challenging his views on herd immunity, only 3 of those were epidemiologists.

Sorry I do not recall his name , he was on this morning, the Scot reporter was hosting the show , I took it as he knew his stuff,