Coronavirus outbreak

[lazybloke]

It’s a moving target. As the weather improves, people will get out more, reduce transmission opportunities, and it will stabilise.

Spain and Iran aren't exactly wintry. Even the UK winter has been v mild (down south- at least).

I suggest you're hoping for the best but fogetting the other bit: plan for the worst.

The difficulty is deciding what is the reasonable worst case scenario. But denial still isn't the best option. Better to over prepare than under prepare.

 

[oldfatfool]

Oh well yeah we are all going to die, wouldn't want to be last man standijg in anycase. Ttfn

 

[Joey Shabadoo]

 

[steve292]

Jesus please don't tell me they've stripped out the Hummus and Guacamole too!

Not an organic kumquat or a lychee to be seen in waitrose, and quinoa in short supply as well. Where will it end....

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

The numbers in Lodi (and a few neighbouring provinces too) now are totally insane. This had 10 municipaliities within Lodi and 1 in veneto that were locked down* on 22nd of February. In theory with what some virologists are saying about infection and deaths being about a month apart on average, depending on your point of view this won't stop for another week, or maybe even longer. The 2nd lockdown also had neighbouring provinces effected badly (which was why they were doing that). Now some of the provinces in the south are reporting relatively large numbers of cases vs most other bits of the world.

*The lockdown in Lodi/2nd lockdown as well wasn't stuck to and everyone in Italy knows it sadly.

Gee I haven't been looking at the Italian numbers for a couple of days, until now having read your comment. It is absolutely tragic.

What is hugely concerning, is their daily increase now (3500) is approaching the peak daily increase rate in China (4000), and China hit that rate when they reached 24,000 (on 4th Feb), which happens to be only a day away from the total in Italy today (21,000). So the condition in Italy is looking like a mirror image of China's, which could indicate that their ultimate total may not be less than that in China to date (80,000).

On top of that, the other thing that is extremely worrying, is while in Hubei they had 40,000 medical staff flown in from the rest of the country when the sh*te hit their fan, who is going to have the resource to help Italy (perhaps except China)? Perhaps that also partly explains the huge fatality rate in Italy.

And then to see there are people here who actually think this is all nothing/scaremongering, for UK, is tragic too.

 

[Beebo]

France are shutting all bars and restaurants as from 11pm tonight.
My friend is in France, he’s coming home tomorrow as their holiday is ruined.

 

[steve292]

If that is what they intend to eat during the crisis, I can totally see why they might need to stock up on toilet paper....

Well thats the thing isn't it? If you've bought 6 months worth of shithouse paper, but not the same amount of food, there's something seriously awry with your planning methodology.

 

[Rezillo]

The numbers in Lodi (and a few neighbouring provinces too) now are totally insane. This had 10 municipaliities within Lodi and 1 in veneto that were locked down* on 22nd of February. In theory with what some virologists are saying about infection and deaths being about a month apart on average, depending on your point of view this won't stop for another week, or maybe even longer. The 2nd lockdown also had neighbouring provinces effected badly (which was why they were doing that). Now some of the provinces in the south are reporting relatively large numbers of cases vs most other bits of the world.

*The lockdown in Lodi/2nd lockdown as well wasn't stuck to and everyone in Italy knows it sadly.

I used to work in public health years ago as a (non-medic) specialist in notifiable disease control. I took part in and helped organise regional training exercises for hypothetical major outbreaks, most of which involved pandemic flu-type incidents compressed into a couple of days. It's really wierd watching a scenario, that I never really thought I would see in my lifetime, unfold in real time. One thing I didn't foresee was all the denial. In some ways, that's worse than the hysteria; it puts the elderly at risk if those who see themselves at low risk or in a situation of no threat to them don't practice good hygiene.

 

[marinyork]

Gee I haven't been looking at the Italian numbers for a couple of days, until now having read your comment. It is absolutely tragic.

What is hugely concerning, is their daily increase now (3500) is approaching the peak daily increase rate in China (4000), and China hit that rate when they reached 24,000 (on 4th Feb), which happens to be only a day away from the total in Italy today (21,000). So the condition in Italy is looking like a mirror image of China's, which could indicate that their ultimate total may not be less than that in China to date (80,000).

On top of that, the other thing that is extremely worrying, is while in Hubei they had 40,000 medical staff flown in from the rest of the country when the sh*te hit their fan, who is going to have the resource to help Italy (perhaps except China)? Perhaps that also partly explains the huge fatality rate in Italy.

And then to see there are people here who actually think this is all nothing/scaremongering, for UK, is tragic too.

The Italy figures have been looking like they could go worse than China even on a Hubei v Italy comparison for quite a while. That's just the national bit. If you adjust for Lombardy and provinces the picture is far, far bleaker, several appear much worse than China (although I don't know what went on deep within bits of Wuhan within Hubei). There's also a very nasty cluster when you ignore regional borders (although Emilia-Romagna's total on it's own is bad enough) between Mar/EMR. These two neighbouring provinces have over time spread to a neighbouring province. The type of terrains it's spread over and populations for provinces (which I mostly know) are also concerning. It is wildly out of control there with ambulances coming and going and people in intensive care (quite a few what certainly the Italians would call young). This is nothing compared to ground zero for the virus in Lodi where anywhere near there reports are becoming sparser and sparser (national/local news) and the BBC was reporting from Brescia instead which yeah...

One of the concerns apart from all that has been voiced on Italian tv. Some of the numbers for Piemonte (contain's Turin) and Liguria when adjusted for population are also are starting to look disturbing/something not quite right there.

 

[Rezillo]

Well thats the thing isn't it? If you've bought 6 months worth of shithouse paper, but not the same amount of food, there's something seriously awry with your planning methodology.

Well, I'm avoiding crowded air-conditioned supermarkets and can get all the food we need from farm gate sales and rural shops. However, there's a distinct lack of farm gate bog roll sellers.

Every supply crisis I've known - the 70s oil crisis, the three day week, the transport drivers strike etc. has resulted in panic buying of toilet roll and other staple items. Once it was sugar, for some reason. Anyway, an entirely predictable outcome, if rather a bizarre one. Nothing changes in 50 years. It also makes good tv because the product takes a lot of shelf space so it looks impressive when its gone.

I have to admit having a small stack ourselves post Brexit when trying to work out what basic items might end up stuck in a queue on the M20 if there was no deal. It was that and cat food.

 

[Milzy]

All public places close Wednesday
All house confined from friday
Until 1st june
(All international travel till late July)

#nopanic

I have no source but it's a hunch I've got. We will see.

 

[Mugshot]

A Surge in Biking to Avoid Crowded Trains in N.Y.C.

More New Yorkers are turning to cycling to minimize their coronavirus exposure. Citi Bike trips surged to more than half a million this month.

NY Times link

 

[nickyboy]

All public places close Wednesday
All house confined from friday
Until 1st june
(All international travel till late July)

#nopanic

I have no source but it's a hunch I've got. We will see.

I think you're right but a week previous

If and when it does happen, people who have been assiduously hand washing, social distancing etc can look at those who couldn't be arsed and point the finger at them and say "you did this"

HK has had the result it has because the population completely understands what is needed and they did it. For sure some governmental edicts helped, but what stopped it in its tracks was the will of the people

I've been saying for weeks and weeks that this is farking serious. All those that said "it's just flu", "it's overhyped"...thanks a farking lot

 

[marinyork]

I think you're right but a week previous

If and when it does happen, people who have been assiduously hand washing, social distancing etc can look at those who couldn't be arsed and point the finger at them and say "you did this"

Whilst by then we're hoping faster and cheaper test kits have come out, work on a vaccine has started properly and crossing fingers that remdesivir "works" on any kind of scale.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Any truth in rumours he burns his baseball caps after every media appearance as his contribution to virus hygiene?

He has to wear US on his hat so that they can return him to his home because he has a tendency just to wander off if left alone.