Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

The vitamin D leitmotif was not aimed at you @classic33 , but still think it's a good idea, when the sun doesn't shine and for those who don't get out, and if not contraindicated (very rare). Still not sure what the question is to which a fact check link from August is "the answer" - see your comment.
The whole ivermectin thing was, again, long ago and his point is/was: no proper trials (RCT) were being done on it, despite suggestions that the safe, widely available and cheap drug may have benefit (like viagra for example). The primary thrust was: there should be a proper study/trial - steel yourself and read this biznews article (which is NOT saying that ivermectin has any beneficial effect). There is an Oxford Uni study (PRINCIPLE) which added ivermectin (the seventh drug) into its trial in mid 2021 (results still awaited for ivermectin: most trialled drugs shown not effective, one (budesonide) has merit).
I'll be guessing you have watched very few of these videos, @roubaixtuesday and are going on secondary material. Head over to the helmet thread for more on stuff people do for unproven benefit.
Of the excess deaths (15+%) only a third of those have a primary or secondary cause of COVID-19. When you have additional deaths twice as many as from/partly from COVID-19, they need demonstrable and public scrutiny (and 'no' I don't have any more suggestions).
For @mjr this is not a blame game: the excess deaths are persisting. I suggested possible reasons and you've contributed another (the ambulance > A&E > admission > care non-availability logjam, NB sustained increase in funding of the NHS above inflation for years). @PK99 has suggested another.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The whole ivermectin thing was, again, long ago

No. Earlier this year.

 

[Ajax Bay]

No. Earlier this year.

I didn't realise he'd been back on that horse in March this year. The RCT is being done: let's see what the results of the PRINCIPLE work conclude.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I didn't realise he'd been back on that horse in March this year. The RCT is being done: let's see what the results of the PRINCIPLE work conclude.

Agree re trials.

Campbell is not a reliable source.

 

[mjr]

For @mjr this is not a blame game: the excess deaths are persisting. I suggested possible reasons and you've contributed another (the ambulance > A&E > admission > care non-availability logjam, NB sustained increase in funding of the NHS above inflation for years). @PK99 has suggested another.

It was very jarring that you only mentioned patient errors, though.

Also, "sustained increase in funding of the NHS above inflation for years" depends how you count it (there were a couple of slightly-below-inflation increases — aka slight real-terms falls — per-capita in the 2010s according to the Nuffield Trust). It also ignores the bigger problem that healthcare need doesn't depend that much on inflation, although the current high-inflation period and its consequences for heating, eating and medication buying choices seem likely to cause more need in the medium term. Healthcare need depends more on things like policy decisions that help or harm public health, where governments of all colours for at least 25 years have pretty much failed to deliver their well-meaning policies through things like transport (cycling!) and development planning.

How much funding is needed probably also depends whether the NHS is playing "catch up" after coping with a pandemic. I wasn't confident that the 2.5% real-terms increase announced before the recent government crisis was going to be enough to catch up and I don't think last week's announcement increased it enough. The NHS Confederation implies that the NHS is getting just £3.3bn more which won't fill a £6bn funding gap... and I think that's just to keep pace, including the slow elective recovery plan. Is there an estimate of how much recovering the NHS to a pre-covid position would cost?

 

[mjr]

I didn't realise he'd been back on that horse in March this year. The RCT is being done: let's see what the results of the PRINCIPLE work conclude.

I'll be guessing you have watched very few of these videos and are going on secondary material. 😜

 

[mjr]

This might have something to do with the extra excess deaths, but more to do with why this winter colds season seemed to start early and hard : https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03666-9

 

[Ajax Bay]

Here's where England is with RSV this autumn (data from Week 45 of 52), compared with previous years (NB 18-19 was worst and significant spike in deaths from/with flu occuring either side of New Year (assume flu caught in December). (OHID)

"Influenza positivity remained stable at 6.9% in week 45; SARS-CoV-2 positivity decreased to 4.2%. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) positivity increased to 9.2% in week 45. Adenovirus positivity increased to 3.3%. Rhinovirus positivity decreased to 14.0%. Parainfluenza positivity remained low at 1.8%, while human metapneumovirus (hMPV) positivity remained low at 1.7% in week 45." (edited from UKHSA)

 

[gavgav]

From the very outset of this thread anyone that dares speak against the vaccine is automatically branded as a conspiracy theorist or a troll. Quite amusing really.

People are perfectly entitled to be against a vaccine, that’s their choice, what they’re not entitled to do is pedal complete lies and fabrications to try and justify it

 

[markemark]

People are perfectly entitled to be against a vaccine, that’s their choice, what they’re not entitled to do is pedal complete lies and fabrications to try and justify it

And they fact that the whole situation is labelled as ‘amusing’ says quite a bit.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

People are perfectly entitled to be against a vaccine, that’s their choice, what they’re not entitled to do is pedal complete lies and fabrications to try and justify it

Am disappointed the site allows itself to be used for the dissemination of such.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Immensa lab errors may have led to 23 Covid-19 deaths

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-63795285

 

[Ajax Bay]

IndieSAGE (2 Dec)
1) ONS survey out yesterday suggest COVID-19 infections levelling out (at ~1:60). Notably this level is roughly the same as the long 'minimum' (all autumn 2021) and the the minima (27 May and 3 Sep 2022). So maybe (for UK) this is the pandemic norm.
2) Similar pattern to hospital admissions with about one third 'because of' and two thirds 'with' (ie incidental) - latter is still not good for the patient, makes preventing in-hospital infection more difficult and consumes resourcs, and risks infecting staff (forcing their absence for (say) 10 days)).
3) COVID-19 booster take-up is 89% for over 75s, 76% for 65-74 and 56% for 50-64.
[My comment] Given that the younger you get the less chance, even if (when) you catch it (again), of serious illness, I can see why the take-up drops off. But for those few who have not knowingly been infected, makes assured sense to get vaccinated/boosted because they won't have antibodies from 'natural' infection. Think there's evidence that protection from serious illness is greatest from a combo of vaccination and natural infection (someone else can go and fact check that, if inclined).
4) Variants: CH.1 is small (4%) but the fastest growing variant. However BQ.1 is over half of infections at present, and the % rising (as a proportion in a 'stable' market).
5) Flu's up.

Verbal message was: if you haven't yet and are eligible; get your flu vaccine.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Good overview of the issues in China
(WHO top advisor Nabarro):
View: https://youtu.be/DJKCdBM2PSA?t=1082

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Think there's evidence that protection from serious illness is greatest from a combo of vaccination and natural infection (someone else can go and fact check that, if inclined).

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Verbal message was: if you haven't yet and are eligible; get your flu vaccine.

On the natural and vaccination point, I take part in the ONS infection survey, which involves 4 weekly PCR and antibody tests. Their feedback to me is that I have ''higher level'' antibodies. Though they don't define how this higher level affects infection rates or how you might get to that level, I've been led to believe that it's because I have had a very early covid infection plus all 4 vaccinations. (No subsequent infections after the pre-lockdown one.)