Weekly
update from ONS estimates of the numbers of people who would test positive for the virus (prevalence) on 15 Jan. This is much higher than the cases reported (after testing).
ONS (30 Dec - 5 Jan) = 3M (ave 430k new pd)
gov.uk dashboard = 1.3M (same week)
Conclusion (not new): the confirmed case count reflects less than half of new infections.
Working on actual cases (includes asymptomatic) being double those reported in UK (and NB the amount and quality of the UK's testing and reporting is very good in a 'world' context):
- About 11M have been infected since 1 Dec (mix of vaxxed and non-vaxxed and all ages)
- UK is running out of people with no antibodies so a high proportion of the population is not susceptible
- The transmissibility of the Omicron variant means that, even with the low proportion susceptible, there'll continue to be a steady case rate (has fallen to less than half the peak on NYD) - how much further we don't know: endemic.
- Boosted vaccination won't stop one catching it (but reduces risk of any serious illness)
- COVID-19 remains a threat to the vulnerable (age and/or comorbidities) particularly if unvaccinated.
I will forego the pub in the three days before each visit to my aged (& boosted - I was 'taxi') mother.
Thought two comments by James Naismith, University of Oxford worth posting:
"Despite the advanced warning from South Africa, almost two years of experience, early imposition of Plan B and existing measures the Omicron wave reached an astounding prevalence in only a few weeks. It did so whilst we were unsure of its severity. Had it been more severe, we would have been in dire straits. Our entire system of pandemic preparedness (from public policy to debate to track /trace and hospital capacity) is not fit for purpose. Omicron should be a flashing red light [and] a blaring klaxon.
"A more honest assessment of NPIs is needed, there was a tendency for these to become politicised and consequently tribalised.”