Coronavirus outbreak

[mjr]

I was listening to him on the way home, was also saying that a study of 22000 in Scotland suggests omicron puts 2/3rd less people in hospital than delta. Mind you at the current rate of infection that's still a lot of people who may require hospital treatment.

itv news reporting that omicron is only 10% less severe than delta and 50% more contagious, which I think is from the same study.

That report doesn't seem to be online yet, so maybe I misheard or they'll correct it, but this explanation of why England may still see more restrictions even if Omicron is slightly milder: Covid: Why England could face post-Christmas restrictions even if data shows Omicron is milder | ITV News – https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-22...istmas-restrictions-even-if-omicron-is-milder

Edit: report now online with fewer numbers, based on a different study of patients in England at Covid: Risk of hospitalisation with Omicron appears to be lower compared with Delta, study suggests | ITV News – https://www.itv.com/news/2021-12-22...icron-appears-to-be-lower-compared-with-delta

 

[midlife]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

The radio 4 program alluded to the Scottish study that expected 47 hospital admissions but only 15 were recorded. I guess that's were Prof Spiegelhalter picked the percentage from

 

[mjr]

Nothing you can do if you need to be hospitalised , chances are you are going to be exposed to the virus.

1. Is that true? There still seem to be long lists of what you have to do if being hospitalised as planned (for a scheduled operation, for example), including 7 or 14 day isolation and testing.

2. Was it inevitable? Was there a level of hospitalisations where it became the case?

 

[Slick]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59758784

The radio 4 program alluded to the Scottish study that expected 47 hospital admissions but only 15 were recorded. I guess that's were Prof Spiegelhalter picked the percentage from

I think it was quite a small control group so they are still pretty tentative about any claims.

 

[classic33]

1. Is that true? There still seem to be long lists of what you have to do if being hospitalised as planned (for a scheduled operatio, for example), including 7 or 14 day isolation and testing.

2. Was it inevitable? Was there a level of hospitalisations where it became the case?

Most hospitals dropped routine operations earlier this month, around the same time as routine appointments.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I have been keeping an eye out for work on looking at the extent to which the SPI-M modelling (LSHTM, Warwick and Imperial) was borne out in reality.
Edit to add: The 13 October Warwick modelling discusses this and they learned from how things weren't as bad (hospitalisations and deaths) and included changes to their assumptions (in the 13 Oct model/results obviously OBE'd now by the advent of Omicron.
The Covid-19 Actuaries Group have been tracking hospital admissions compared with a June model - this update is from November. You can see that the predicted peaks, with the exception of the Warwick “green” version have not materialised (note it doesn’t show Imperial’s 'max fear' curve, as it is off the scale). However, the hospitalisation rate has persisted at a much more sustained level than estimated. Of course since this plotting, the Omicron variant has changed the likely outcome shape.

 

[cougie uk]

Maybe we should get rid of the aluminum door handles we now see in hospitals. The older brass handles had a certain amount of "killing power" with regards infections.

Our local hospital has put brass or copper piping handles on the doors for the stairs. Presumably it's anti Covid.

 

[flake99please]

Had my booster earlier today. I might just be feigning a bit of illness tomorrow. Just enough to get me out of cooking the dinner.

 

[All uphill]

Had my booster earlier today. I might just be feigning a bit of illness tomorrow. Just enough to get me out of cooking the dinner.

Ah, if you're not well you won't be wanting anything to eat and drink.

 

[midlife]

Our local hospital has put brass or copper piping handles on the doors for the stairs. Presumably it's anti Covid.

Way back at the start, our hospital had a stab at swabbing for COVID on all sorts of surfaces (fomites) and didn't come across a lot. Maybe it was all the alcohol gel being used on hands?

 

[Ajax Bay]

I thought transmission by fomites had been widely discounted as negligible. No doubt there is still uncertainty, hence the expenditure on cleaning etc. Now if only that effort had gone into ventilation (including tubes and buses). Ventilation still an issue in indoor public spaces, including pubs and the like.

 

[cougie uk]

I thought transmission by fomites had been widely discounted as negligible. No doubt there is still uncertainty, hence the expenditure on cleaning etc. Now if only that effort had gone into ventilation (including tubes and buses). Still an issue in indoor public spaces, including pubs and the like.

I think you're right. It's taken us ages to realise it's ventilation that's needed and the message still hasn't gotten through everywhere.

 

[PK99]

Way back at the start, our hospital had a stab at swabbing for COVID on all sorts of surfaces (fomites) and didn't come across a lot. Maybe it was all the alcohol gel being used on hands?

My reading is that fomite transmission was postulated at the start of the pandemic but fairly rapidly downgraded as a potential route.

 

[midlife]

I thought transmission by fomites had been widely discounted as negligible. No doubt there is still uncertainty, hence the expenditure on cleaning etc. Now if only that effort had gone into ventilation (including tubes and buses). Ventilation still an issue in indoor public spaces, including pubs and the like.

Yep, at work our aircon fans are at max and still get maxed up on PPE when generating saliva aerosols.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Ah, if you're not well you won't be wanting anything to eat and drink.

Feed a cold, starve a fever.

Or is that the wrong way round?