Coronavirus outbreak

[markemark]

The ONS/Oxford report out today has important implications for transmission. The double jabbed can harbour the virus as well as the unsymptomatic can.

It says that the viral load in those jabbed is the same as those in jabbed. It also says you’re less likely to catch it in the first place and it also says they didn’t measure how long you’re infectious for which may well be Jess.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The ONS/Oxford report out today has important implications for transmission. The double jabbed can harbour the virus as well as the unsymptomatic can.

Yes, it seems to clearly show more potential for onwards transmission with Delta. But be cautious of overinterpreting I think.

Firstly, double jabbed are still far less likely to get infected in the first place.

Secondly, the measure used (PCR Ct value) is a proxy for onward transmission and other factors eg duration may impact too. So there may still be a difference if double jabbed.

Thirdly, the error bars on the data are large.

Here's the press release "Key findings from the study":

• Obtaining two vaccine doses remains the most effective way to ensure protection against the COVID-19 Delta variant of concern dominant in the UK today.
• With Delta, Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines still offer good protection against new infections, but effectiveness is reduced compared with Alpha.
• Two doses of either vaccine still provided at least the same level of protection as having had COVID-19 before through natural infection; people who had been vaccinated after already being infected with COVID-19 had even more protection than vaccinated individuals who had not had COVID-19 before.
• However, Delta infections after two vaccine doses had similar peak levels of virus to those in unvaccinated people; with the Alpha variant, peak virus levels in those infected post-vaccination were much lower.

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/covid-19/covid-19-infection-survey/results/new-studies

And the preprint

https://www.ndm.ox.ac.uk/files/coro...ction-survey/finalfinalcombinedve20210816.pdf

And here's the Ct data, the right hand set being mainly delta.

 

[newfhouse]

So if wearing a mask protects others and is government advice for indoors and in crowded places, what does it say about these people?
View attachment 604956

Is that Hunt wearing one in the second row?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Is that Hunt wearing one in the second row?

I think so. Apparently, Gove is also wearing one though he's out of shot. Also Damian Hinds, security minister is wearing one too.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

So if wearing a mask protects others and is government advice for indoors and in crowded places, what does it say about these people?
View attachment 604956

That they are unfit to lead the country. Simple as that.

 

[newfhouse]

I think so. Apparently, Gove is also wearing one though he's out of shot.

Is that to hide the white powder around his nostrils?

 

[Ajax Bay]

s'Nuff

 

[Bazzer]

Youngest daughter's boyfriend was feeling crap Tuesday and Wednesday, so had a PCR test - positive. So daughter had a PCR test, a) because of contact with him and b) she was staring to feel crap. Now been told she is positive. She is also now feeling really poorly.
Both had been double jabbed, my daughter long before her age group was officially due to have them.

On a positive note, she isn't at home, but isolating with her boyfriend. I am due to be looking after my 90 year old Mum all next week and as soon as I heard about her boyfriend, had been putting into place measures to isolate from my daughter, even if she had tested negative.

 

[Ajax Bay]

[Advocating the prophylactic use of ivermectin] is an earnest search for medicine when we still have none, certainly outside hospital.

And all of a sudden a No 3 bus comes along (Croxted Road ), making that statement wrong.
MHRA: Ronapreve is indicated for the prophylaxis and treatment of acute Covid-19 infection. The medicine is a mix of "Casirivimab and imdevimab: two neutralising IgG1 recombinant human monoclonal antibodies produced by recombinant DNA technology in Chinese hamster [] ovary cells".
Looks like the prophylaxis target are individuals with mild or moderate renal impairment or with mild hepatic impairment who may or may not be able to take the vaccine.

 

[mjr]

And all of a sudden a No 3 bus comes along (Croxted Road ), making that statement wrong.
MHRA: Ronapreve is indicated for the prophylaxis and treatment of acute Covid-19 infection. The medicine is a mix of "Casirivimab and imdevimab: two neutralising IgG1 recombinant human monoclonal antibodies produced by recombinant DNA technology in Chinese hamster [] ovary cells".
Looks like the prophylaxis target are individuals with mild or moderate renal impairment or with mild hepatic impairment who may or may not be able to take the vaccine.

I was really hoping the MHRA had used but it's not there when I clicked through!

 

[Ajax Bay]

Latest ONS antibody survey
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...rveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/latest

• "In England, it is estimated that over 9 in 10 adults, or 94.2% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 93.2% to 95.1%) would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, the specific virus that causes coronavirus (COVID-19), on a blood test in the week beginning 26 July 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.
• "In Scotland, [within a point the same]".

I wonder what the percentage is in the 14M under 18s in UK?
Even if 100% have protection evidenced by presence of antibodies, that protection against infection is 'only' about (say) 70% average, and that's too low for herd immunity against the Delta variant, its R number even moderated a bit by the NPIs that people will accept in UK. Endemic in our lifetimes (like and not like, flu).
Best we get on and live those lives.

 

[Johnno260]

Looks like many could learn a lot from NZ reaction.

I know there is a population difference but their track and trace seems utterly on point.

That Tweet and the responses seem like a job very well done, especially with the potential 13000 additional contacts traced an contacted.


View: https://twitter.com/drjinrussell/status/1429945207273910276?s=21

Edit: Sorry I linked a tweet, if there is a way to convert this to be viewed via a browser please let me know.

 

[mjr]

Looks like many could learn a lot from NZ reaction.

I know there is a population difference but their track and trace seems utterly on point.

We will learn a lot, because NZ is one of very few countries persuing an elimination strategy rather than containment or conflagration. Political pressure against it is starting to build but public support remains high and I think it is difficult to see how surrendering while at such a low vaccination rate wouldn't end very badly with a "catch up" wave of deaths. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-zero-strategy-despite-rising-infections

Meanwhile, things continue to worsen in Japan and government continue to say it's nothing to do with the big sports events.
https://www.thejournal.ie/japan-extending-state-of-emergency-5531053-Aug2021/

 

[Johnno260]

We will learn a lot, because NZ is one of very few countries persuing an elimination strategy rather than containment or conflagration. Political pressure against it is starting to build but public support remains high and I think it is difficult to see how surrendering while at such a low vaccination rate wouldn't end very badly with a "catch up" wave of deaths. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-zero-strategy-despite-rising-infections

Meanwhile, things continue to worsen in Japan and government continue to say it's nothing to do with the big sports events.
https://www.thejournal.ie/japan-extending-state-of-emergency-5531053-Aug2021/

I’m sure each strategy used has merits depending on the nation, but after all this experts really need to dissect the data to try and see what we can all do better, as this will happen again in the future.

The Japanese outbreaks have to be related to the sports, issue there is the cities are all highly populated as well, my sister visited a while back and was amazed by how heavily populated Tokyo was.

I’m willing to bet back home in the U.K all the recent hotspots are staycation related, we love Cornwall but knew it would be packed, we instead found a really nice lodge near Ipswich haha it was between Ipswich and Shotley, lovely place and not very busy.

 

[matticus]

The Japanese outbreaks have to be related to the sports, issue there is the cities are all highly populated as well, my sister visited a while back and was amazed by how heavily populated Tokyo was.

I'd taken no interest in Japanese stats before now. Do we know why their (pre-Olympics) figures for 2021 were so much higher than 2020?

I guess they increased testing (like most countries)? But also I note the death-rate took off around Dec 10th, it looks like a real game of 2 halves for them (even before the Olympics) :-/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/