Coronavirus outbreak

[deptfordmarmoset]

...Assume those are England Zoe data only?

I've just found their breakdown by country. UK 45,911, England 41,186, Scotland 1,534, Wales 1,499, NI 1,691.

 

[vickster]

Make of this what you will: the PHE ''Active Cases'' figure is almost half that of the Zoe app ''Daily Cases.'' 23,510 (9/8) to 45,911 (11/8)

So need to update this for accuracy and check the other measures match if wanting to compare

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

So need to update this for accuracy and check the other measures match if wanting to compare

Big hike in the PHE figures - was 23,510 3 days ago. 33,074 (12/8), 41,194 (Zoe England, 11/8)

 

[mjr]

Here's a fairly long but readable summary of the current situation, although with a US focus with some mentions of the UK and others. Amongst other things, it praises the sort of direct metric-to-measures laws I said I'd use, instead of the "smashing from one side of the aisle to the other" that England has had. Nevertheless, there are other bits I still hope will be avoided in the UK but I fear won't. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/

 

[Ajax Bay]

The Atlantic article a long but quality read - well done @mjr for finding. For the TL;DR cohort, here's a few extracts:

"Full vaccination (with the mRNA vaccines, at least) is about 88 percent effective at preventing symptomatic disease caused by the Delta variant. Breakthrough infections are possible but affect only 0.01 to 0.29% of fully vaccinated people, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. Breakthroughs . . . are relatively rare and [the symptoms are] much milder than equivalent infections in unvaccinated people: Full vaccination is 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations, and unvaccinated people make up more than 95% of COVID-19 patients in American hospital beds. The vaccines are working, and working well. Vaccinated people are indisputably safer than unvaccinated people."
Comment: The breakthrough infection percentage seems rather unreliable: it implies extraordinary vaccine effectiveness (guess it depends on the definition/threshold/effective reporting of 'breakthrough').

"we need to take advantage of every single tool we have at our disposal . . . these should include better ventilation to reduce the spread of the virus, rapid tests to catch early infections, and forms of social support such as paid sick leave, eviction moratoriums, and free isolation sites that allow infected people to stay away from others. . . . where cases are lower masks: the simplest, cheapest, and least disruptive of all the anti-COVID measures—might be enough."

In the USA "pediatric (sic) COVID-19 cases are skyrocketing and hospitalizations have reached a pandemic high"

"the 'zero COVID' dream of fully stamping out the virus is a fantasy. Instead, the pandemic ends when almost everyone has immunity, preferably because they were vaccinated or alternatively because they were infected . . . . When that happens, the cycle of surges will stop and the pandemic will peter out. The new coronavirus will become endemic—a recurring part of our lives like its four cousins that cause common colds. It will be less of a problem, not because it has changed but because it is no longer novel and people are no longer immunologically vulnerable. Endemicity was always the likely outcome; now [it's] unavoidable."

 

[Ajax Bay]

In the last 10 weeks, 1.6M people in UK have reported positive cases. Going on UK's experience this suggests 3+M unvaccinated have been infected since 26 May (when this wave started). In another month (at the current daily rate) another 1M will be infected, mostly unvaccinated. Of those about 25k will develop illness serious enough to need hospitalisation (2.5%).
47M have had one dose and 40M have had 2. Currently the average gap between jabs is 10 weeks.
There's 1.5M 16 and 17 year olds - we'll see what the uptake is, but reducing infection in schoolchildren will mean their education can continue with less disruption.
The best SPI-M modelling I can find is the 9 Jun Warwick work (see graph below), where they assess what would be the effect of delaying the final relaxation from 21 Jun to 19 Jul (well done the Government for taking account of the science and delaying by 4 weeks).

It has played out about on the bottom green line. It looks likely that the decline in the curve will be slower: August and September.
Peak daily admissions were 23 Jul at 909. Edit: Looks like occupancy may have peaked on 9 Aug.

E

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

So if wearing a mask protects others and is government advice for indoors and in crowded places, what does it say about these people?

 

[Milzy]

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?

Scientifically, no, I couldn't. Politically, I refer you to the above photo of elected sociopaths.

 

[midlife]

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?

As above, to end the "pingdemic" and get more people back into work......

 

[lazybloke]

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?

Isn't that dependent on the result of a pcr test?

 

[midlife]

If you are double jabbed or under 18 then you don't have to isolate after a contact. There is a recommendation to get a PCR (not mandatory) but go about your normal business. Only isolate if you test positive. Which is how I read it.

 

[markemark]

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?

Because you’re less likely to catch it if you’re double jabbed.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Can anybody explain to me how you don’t have to isolate if you’ve been double jabbed but you can still transmit the virus?

As @markemark says, you're much less likely to catch the virus.

But also, the study out today does *not* show there is no less transmission if you do catch it when vaccinated, it shows rather than on one proxy for onward transmission* there is no difference for delta, where there was for alpha. That suggests the impact on transmission for delta is lower, but it's not measured directly in that study and could still be worthwhile.

*PCR Ct minimum value

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Because you’re less likely to catch it if you’re double jabbed.

The ONS/Oxford report out today has important implications for transmission. The double jabbed can harbour the virus as well as the unsymptomatic can.