Coronavirus outbreak

[DaveReading]

SAGE noted in a recent report that we ate 100% certain to get a variant that evades the vaccine.

I thought that SAGE dealt in balances of probabilities, not certainties.

 

[PK99]

SAGE noted in a recent report that we ate 100% certain to get a variant that evades the vaccine.

@lane
I'd be interested to read that report - do you have a link?

 

[lane]

You are absolutely correct, my error. They said it was "almost certain"

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html

 

[lane]

@lane
I'd be interested to read that report - do you have a link?

https://assets.publishing.service.g...6/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

 

[lane]

"Antigenic drift: A gradual or punctuated accumulation of antigenic variation that eventually leads to current vaccine failure. Worst case is that this drift combines with significant antigenic sin (vaccination resulting in an immune response that is dominated by antibodies to previously experienced viruses/vaccines) meaning that it becomes difficult to revaccinate to induce antibodies to the new strains. Genetic and antigenic drift are almost inevitable. Antigenic sin has not yet been reported for SARS-CoV-2 so we consider this possibility less likely. Likelihood: Almost certain. Impact: Medium."

 

[PK99]

You are absolutely correct, my error. They said it was "almost certain"

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/01/health/uk-scientists-covid-variant-beat-vaccines-intl/index.html

• The original paper (linked by the CNN Report) is a Scenario planning document and the CNN quote is by no means the "headline" conclusion of the report.
• The proper sense is of 'current vaccine failure' not a 'complete vaccine evasion'.
• The impact of such evasion is assessed in the report as "medium", there are a number of other scenarios where the impact is assessed as "high"

Full text here:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...6/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf

 

[cambsno]

Scottish schools go back in 2 weeks time, students start returning to Scottish universities 2 weeks after that. So we don’t have to wait long to see if we’re going to get a rerun of 2020.

When kids went back to schools around Feb there was barely a blip in cases so that may not see a huge increase.

 

[lane]

Everything now supports the fact that the fall in cases was genuine and not due to reduces testing of school children etc. Fall in hospitalizations and reduction in ONS numbers to 1 in 75 and R between 0.8 and 1. Clearly the last few days we are either seeing a leveling out or an uptick following relaxation in restrictions. So far so good and much better than the 100,000 a day predicted for mid August. Still don't know how far the current uptick will go, what will happen in the Autumn or what new problems may be caused by variants in the future. But at least we can get on with more things at the moment without worrying too much.

 

[markemark]

Plateauing is driven by a rise in the under 25s with over 25s still dropping I expect this group to peak and drop soon as the 19th abd the under 25s socialising passes it’s peak. Will this continue in September? Last March the schools returned with no noticeable uptick in cases. So fingers crossed.

 

[lane]

No but last September when schools and more especially students returned cases shot up especially students. But many of them will be vaccinated or already have been infected this time round.

 

[SpokeyDokey]

That is a brave post, given that the thread in which it is posted is littered with the tattered remnants of confident assertions about how quickly covid will be gone, going right back to the very first pages. I did notice the last time that I looked back that a number of the people making those early bold predictions have ceased whatever reason.

But to be fair, and for balance, we have had more than our fair share of doom-mongers and panickers in this thread too which one way or another have knocked the stuffing out of every green shoot of optimism that we have ever had. And some of them no longer visit the thread.

 

[classic33]

But to be fair, and for balance, we have had more than our fair share of doom-mongers and panickers in this thread too which one way or another have knocked the stuffing out of every green shoot of optimism that we have ever had. And some of them no longer visit the thread.

I'm hoping that part is a voluntary choice on their part, and that they're still around.

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

I’m trying to get my head round the fact that doors are being thrown open and we are being invited to ‘go back to normal’ when case rates are still over 100 per 100,000 in most of Scotland and double that in England. And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection. And there’s so little understanding of long covid, in particular I have yet to see anything to confirm that your chances of getting long covid are reduced by the vaccine. Am I still “cowering” ? Yes, I most certainly am ! And will be for some time to come I expect

 

[alicat]

And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection.

I'm wondering what your source for that statement in.

I'm still cowering too, btw.

 

[Deleted User]

And two jabs of AZ only gives 60-something % protection.

I think you'll find general thoughts are it's around 90%+ after 2 jabs, whether that would reduce your cowering tendencies I don't know?