Coronavirus outbreak

[deptfordmarmoset]

One swallow doesn't make a summer.

Government figures as of yesterday don't show a fall over the week. A slowing in the rate of increase, while good news, doesn't make a fall.

 

[markemark]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[lane]

Excluding Euro impact maybe cases have been flat for a while now. That is backed up by symptom tracker and almost plusable from ONS data.

 

[lazybloke]

If 2021 is like 2020, new infections will reach a minimum during August and then start rising again.

 

[vickster]

If 2021 is like 2020, new infections will reach a minimum during August and then start rising again.

Except now we have high levels of vaccination so hopefully it won’t be

 

[Flick of the Elbow]

Scottish schools go back in 2 weeks time, students start returning to Scottish universities 2 weeks after that. So we don’t have to wait long to see if we’re going to get a rerun of 2020.

 

[lazybloke]

Except now we have high levels of vaccination so hopefully it won’t be

Yes, if there's an increase it will likely be in unvaccinated children first. The recent announcement of jabs to 16 and 17 Yr olds will help.

The impact on the NHS will be key.

 

[vickster]

Yes, if there's an increase it will likely be in unvaccinated children first. The recent announcement of jabs to 16 and 17 Yr olds will help.

The impact on the NHS will be key.

More limited in terms of debilitating illness if it’s children according to the data

 

[lane]

Except now we have high levels of vaccination so hopefully it won’t be

If the R is around 1 now, which seems likely, we can expect it to increase in the Autumn unless there is additional impact from the vaccinations - I would have thought that we are probably now seeing the majority of the impact of vaccinations with limited additional impact to come so would not be surprised to see some increase in R in the Autumn but hopefully not enough of an increase to require many additional restrictions.

 

[Unkraut]

Can anyone offer any suggestions as to why the case rate is falling when the numbers vaccinated daily rate is very low:

There was comment here a couple of days ago that the rate may be being held down in the UK by the sheer numbers of people self-isolating, particularly when coupled with the high vaccination rate.

 

[cookiemonster]

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mX5rXewKl_g


Neil Oliver gets his ass handed back to him by the always excellent Otto English.😄

 

[silva]

Please can you link to any government speech containing such a promise?

Can you link the post where I said that?
Please refrain from straw men.
Politicians never tie themselves to unambiguous statements.
Talking about "the vaccin", was later last year what they replaced their previous talk with.
Please obey we're flattening the curve to not overload hospitals.
Please obey we're crushing the curve to not suffer a second wave.
Please obey the vaccine will arrive.
Please obey vaccination herd immunity will arrive at 70%.
Please obey we need 100% vaccination.
Remember the root hanging in front of the donkey?

Firstly, if a business runs at 100% all the time, it will be upsetting a lot of regular customers with queues or refusals

Why?
100 is the % at which the customers demand is met by available capacity.
What did you think it was?

and probably won't survive in the long term.

Why not?
It's the opposite.
Less implies purchased machinery not being used.
Money, lost.

If some businesses run close to 100% service capacity all the time, then there's probably not enough time for workers to restock and do other routine tasks, service quality will fall off and again it will start to upset and lose customers.

If that wasn't obvious, "production capacity", regardless nature of product.
Feel free to rename it to "service capacity" or whatever capacity / available resources, whether machinery and/or personell, whether physical labour or thinking about PLC program adjustments.

Secondly, safety-critical businesses aim to hit 100% almost never.

What would make them different to other businesses?
A business spends money at production capacity.
A business receives money from customers.
The delta is named "profit" when latter is > than former.
And "loss" when the opposite.
And "break even" when equal, followed by an "ough!".

If a restaurant hits 100%, the next customer gets queued or turned away, what a shame, never mind, as long as it doesn't happen enough to hurt the reputation.

If I enter a restaurant and no reaction on my demand for a meal, I go to another, and if repeatedly occurs, I cease to try.
Why would I be angry about that?
Why would the restaurant be?
It was my, and their choice.
Just like a marriage, and a divorce.
And anything in life.

If something like a railway signalbox hits 100%, the automated failsafes kick in and the signaller's company will probably be paying for delayed trains.

Hey, it's the railway company that agreed with and paid for the signalbox (capacity).
It's named "contract".
Why would your "signaller's company" pay for delayed trains, if the capacity was contractually agreed?

But with hospital intensive care, possibly the next "customer" dies before they can reach treatment. So even if you can say that hitting 100% at peak is a rule, there are plenty of exceptions and hospitals would be one, even commercially.

Imagine your railways train train 100% loaded.
And some passengers jump on the roof.
And they fall off and die.
What's the difference?
In a free market, supply and demand always move to eachother.
The price mechanism does that.
Imagine John, that wants to be SURE of immediate medical treatment, if and when needed.
They he will have to pay a higher price, because machinery and personell will have to be acquired, and held, standby. That is, sitting there, doing nothing. BOOOOORIING. They will have to play cards or so. Or hold some roomplants or pets, to fill the time.
But that's all no problem.
Why: because that's okay for John.
It's the price he's willing to pay, for the insurance.
Now, imagine John is forced to pay that price.

 

[silva]

Chicago, Lollapalooza
https://www.hln.be/buitenland/alsof...en-voor-stortvloed-aan-besmettingen~a75e10b3/

Wie erbij wilde zijn, moest wel een bewijs kunnen voorleggen van volledige vaccinatie of een negatieve coronatest van maximaal 72 uur oud. Wie nog niet volledig gevaccineerd was, werd gevraagd om een mondmasker te dragen.

Google Translate:

Those who wanted to be there had to be able to submit proof of full vaccination or a negative corona test of a maximum of 72 hours old. Those who had not yet been fully vaccinated were asked to wear a mouth mask.

It's unbelievable.
A vaccinated person is declared as safe for other people.
A not vaccinated as a danger.
And in this case, since requirement, even a TESTED (72 hours) person.
The vaccinated persons are free to spread.
Vaccinated persons are implicitly-declared as sterile.
Whether that vaccination was today minus incubation, or 6 months ago.
Whether the vaccinated person exhibited a robust immune reaction on the vaccine, or not.
Whether that reaction works as robust on all mutations as on the Wuhan based one of the vaccins.

 

[classic33]

Can you link the post where I said that?
Please refrain from straw men.
Politicians never tie themselves to unambiguous statements.
Talking about "the vaccin", was later last year what they replaced their previous talk with.
Please obey we're flattening the curve to not overload hospitals.
Please obey we're crushing the curve to not suffer a second wave.
Please obey the vaccine will arrive.
Please obey vaccination herd immunity will arrive at 70%.
Please obey we need 100% vaccination.
Remember the root hanging in front of the donkey?


Why?
100 is the % at which the customers demand is met by available capacity.
What did you think it was?


Why not?
It's the opposite.
Less implies purchased machinery not being used.
Money, lost.


If that wasn't obvious, "production capacity", regardless nature of product.
Feel free to rename it to "service capacity" or whatever capacity / available resources, whether machinery and/or personell, whether physical labour or thinking about PLC program adjustments.


What would make them different to other businesses?
A business spends money at production capacity.
A business receives money from customers.
The delta is named "profit" when latter is > than former.
And "loss" when the opposite.
And "break even" when equal, followed by an "ough!".


If I enter a restaurant and no reaction on my demand for a meal, I go to another, and if repeatedly occurs, I cease to try.
Why would I be angry about that?
Why would the restaurant be?
It was my, and their choice.
Just like a marriage, and a divorce.
And anything in life.


Hey, it's the railway company that agreed with and paid for the signalbox (capacity).
It's named "contract".
Why would your "signaller's company" pay for delayed trains, if the capacity was contractually agreed?


Imagine your railways train train 100% loaded.
And some passengers jump on the roof.
And they fall off and die.
What's the difference?
In a free market, supply and demand always move to eachother.
The price mechanism does that.
Imagine John, that wants to be SURE of immediate medical treatment, if and when needed.
They he will have to pay a higher price, because machinery and personell will have to be acquired, and held, standby. That is, sitting there, doing nothing. BOOOOORIING. They will have to play cards or so. Or hold some roomplants or pets, to fill the time.
But that's all no problem.
Why: because that's okay for John.
It's the price he's willing to pay, for the insurance.
Now, imagine John is forced to pay that price.

What point are you actually trying to make, as this reads as nonsense.

 

[classic33]

Chicago, Lollapalooza
https://www.hln.be/buitenland/alsof...en-voor-stortvloed-aan-besmettingen~a75e10b3/

Google Translate:

It's unbelievable.
A vaccinated person is declared as safe for other people.
A not vaccinated as a danger.
And in this case, since requirement, even a TESTED (72 hours) person.
The vaccinated persons are free to spread.
Vaccinated persons are implicitly-declared as sterile.
Whether that vaccination was today minus incubation, or 6 months ago.
Whether the vaccinated person exhibited a robust immune reaction on the vaccine, or not.
Whether that reaction works as robust on all mutations as on the Wuhan based one of the vaccins.

From the link you posted
" As if coronavirus doesn't exist: immense crowd at Chicago music festival, experts fear a flood of infections
The four-day music festival Lollapalooza took place this weekend in the American city of Chicago. That attracted no less than 100,000 visitors a day and it seemed as if the corona virus was just a distant memory, despite the rising corona numbers in the United States. Images show how tens of thousands of people are packed closely together and there is hardly a mouth mask to be seen. Experts therefore fear that there will be an increase in the number of new infections in the coming weeks."

Reads somewhat different to what you posted.