I responded (on 12 Jun):
"Reworking, adding in the already vaccinated as
@McWobble suggested.
10% (basis for that estimate shared upthread) chance that those susceptible will catch it. The average fraction of those that catch it who end up in hospital is 1% (another
assumption which I'm not certain is robust, but I've seen quoted), Spread over 30 days (see previous 'model') 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 580pd, peaking at (estimate) 1160pd. (NB Latest figure (12 Jun) is 187pd on 8 Jun and the peak in January was 4,232pd (7-day average).)
To reiterate: "Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
[By all means flag these analyses and use them as a stick to beat me in late August.]"
Quoting
@McWobble “if the hospitalisation fraction for the vaccinated really is 1% of those who become ill, I'd expect total numbers to be 10-15% lower than my above figure [“a peak of 4,800 hospitalisations per day.”]”
My estimate was a peak of 1160pd. I had not referred to herd immunity in my estimates.
28 Jun: How are we going? They seem to have stopped publishing hospital admissions: last data are 227 on 22 Jun: a steady increase of about 3 per day (UK).
