Coronavirus outbreak

[roubaixtuesday]

I can see no reason why infections will start falling

We are currently vaccinating 500,000 people a day. 0.7% of the population. You need 2 jabs, so 0.35% daily.

In a month, that's 10% of the population.

Currently, ~64% of the population (incl children) have at least one vaccination.

So ~36% are unvaccinated.

That 36% will drop to 26%, a ratio of ~0.7

So we expect the R number to drop by the same ratio, purely due to vaccination.

That's enough to peak within a month.

If infections rise enough, they'll add to that too (and infections are actually *more* effective at reducing R pro rata than jabs as they only target the unvaccinated)

So, I confidently predict that unless restrictions are further eased, infections will not be growing significantly within a month.

Bookmark this for my future humiliation.

 

[kingrollo]

We care currently vaccinating 500,000 people a day. 0.7% of the population. You need 2 jabs, so 0.35% daily.

In a month, that's 10% of the population.

Currently, ~64% of the population (incl children) have at least one vaccination.

So ~36% are unvaccinated.

That 36% will drop to 26%, a ratio of ~0.7

So we expect the R number to drop by the same ratio, purely due to vaccination.

That's enough to peak within a month.

If infections rise enough, they'll add to that too (and infections are actually *more* effective at reducing R pro rata than jabs as they only target the unvaccinated)

So, I confidently predict that unless restrictions are further eased, infections will not be growing significantly within a month.

Bookmark this for my future humiliation.

OK - Hope you're right.

My U25 son had first Jab yesterday - so 10 days for that to provide an immune response - 2nd Jab mid Aug - so by the end of Aug he will have max protection.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

OK - Hope you're right.

My U25 son had first Jab yesterday - so 10 days for that to provide an immune response - 2nd Jab mid Aug - so by the end of Aug he will have max protection.

The first jab will actually make a really big difference too to the R number.

Even if protection against infection is only ~33% and reduction of onward transmission the same, that still ~ reduces the R number by half. So whilst not super-protective individually, it makes a huge difference at a population level.

My 19yo booked tomorrow.

 

[Unkraut]

And yes, I know, first world problems and all, ...

ditto.

Apologies for my mixed metaphors, but I'm really pissed off as we're almost certainly going to have to cancel our French holiday.

I also hope for a cycling holiday in Alsace that I have wittered on about elsewhere. Would start in two months. This depends on France becoming a 'green' country on the UK list. As you live in the UK, do you think there is any reasonable likelihood this will ever happen? The holiday organiser is going to update around July 6th, and I would have thought three weeks later will have to made a definitive decision one way or the other.

Things are heading in the direction of the 'new normal' both here and in France, but the Indian version might put a stop to this. This is, however, considered to be more of a threat in the autumn when a fourth wave might be a possibility, especially amongst the younger age groups. The variant is in small-scale circulation already, with a heavy clampdown wherever it surfaces.

Pragmatically, without vaccination the restrictions still likely to be in place would make it hardly worthwhile to attempt a holiday this year.

I noticed wading through the UK govt website that it appears no distinction is being made between those who have been fully vaccinated and those who have not when it comes to entering Britain from abroad. I can appreciate why some people don't want distinctions made for reasons of discrimination, but this does seem a tad over the top to me. There is a difference between the two, though as the campaign continues this will decrease.

Bookmark this for my future humiliation.

Duly done. It's a pleasure to be of assistance to you.

 

[PK99]

Interesting comparison date here;

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Would start in two months. This depends on France becoming a 'green' country on the UK list. As you live in the UK, do you think there is any reasonable likelihood this will ever happen?

I would guess that most of the EU will become green before the end of July, which would facilitate summer holidays. Currently numbers are low and rapidly falling almost everywhere except in the UK. Even if that starts to change, the EU vaccination programme will outrun it, I think - a big delta impact in the EU looks unlikely but not inconceivable.

But there are no clear criteria for green and decisions on these things are capricious, so very hard to say, and could easily be wrong.

What do you think my chances are of France changing it's entry criteria for the UK in the next month? I think very low...

 

[lane]

Interesting comparison date here;

View attachment 594446

View attachment 594447

Interesting but the key issue is the comparison between cases and hospital admissions

 

[DCLane]

+1 to the above, deaths have tended to rise 2 weeks later.

 

[PK99]

Interesting but the key issue is the comparison between cases and hospital admissions

View attachment 594451




View attachment 594452

I'm not sure I understand the comparison you are making here.

I've added in Hospitalisations from the same data set.

The time lag (Peak Cases ...Peak Hospitalisation .....Peak deaths)
and correlation (cases vs admissions vs deaths) from the August* surge onwards is clear, and the lack of any current correlated surge is also clear.

*I've chosen August as we can be more confident in the comparability of the data than in the early stages.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

the lack of any current correlated surge is also clear.

Have a look on a log plot

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

There's an area by area vaccination rates map here - https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?mc_cid=b8bcef9ede&mc_eid=8bf870168d#vaccinations

It indicates how cities are trailing and the figures for inner London are appallingly bad. If low vaccination rates result in higher hospital admissions, which is pretty much a given, then London's hospitals are going to stay busy for a long time.

 

[lane]

I'm not sure I understand the comparison you are making here.

I've added in Hospitalisations from the same data set.

The time lag (Peak Cases ...Peak Hospitalisation .....Peak deaths)
and correlation (cases vs admissions vs deaths) from the August* surge onwards is clear, and the lack of any current correlated surge is also clear.

*I've chosen August as we can be more confident in the comparability of the data than in the early stages.

View attachment 594454

View attachment 594455

View attachment 594456

My graphs are taken from UK covid dashboard. So I am happy with them, they show an increase in cases and lower (as you would expect) but noticable increase in hospitalizations.

 

[Deleted User]

There's an area by area vaccination rates map here - https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?mc_cid=b8bcef9ede&mc_eid=8bf870168d#vaccinations

It indicates how cities are trailing and the figures for inner London are appallingly bad. If low vaccination rates result in higher hospital admissions, which is pretty much a given, then London's hospitals are going to stay busy for a long time.

Especially after this weekend!

 

[lane]

A single Pfizer or AstraZeneca vaccine dose reduces chances of catching coronavirus and going to hospital with it by about 75%, data suggests (BBC news website)

Also on BBC news website the R number has not increased from last week.

That seems good news in particular the first one.

 

[mjr]

There's an area by area vaccination rates map here - https://covid.joinzoe.com/data?mc_cid=b8bcef9ede&mc_eid=8bf870168d#vaccinations

It indicates how cities are trailing and the figures for inner London are appallingly bad. If low vaccination rates result in higher hospital admissions, which is pretty much a given, then London's hospitals are going to stay busy for a long time.

How is that percentage calculated? If city-dwellers are on average younger and/or people with long-term health problems prefer to convalesce in the countryside, both of which seem likely, then the cities could not have as high a % vaccinated due to the JCVI's prioritisation and they might be bang on target, so it would be wrong to say they are "trailing" and "appallingly bad". Also, if the area population estimates are incorrect, that could make a big difference.

What would be useful is a "% take-up" map, showing what % of those invited have accepted.