Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

Well no. We’ve made some incredibly strange decisions as a country. For example mask wearing in schools. It’s now compulsory in corridors but not lessons. 15 year old next door has just tested positive and caught it from the pupil behind her in computing class. Pupil to the left also has. Why is Williamson rolling back on mask wearing when the delta strain is hitting the unvaccinated? Is it to appease his back benchers like Swayne, Baker and others?

Pupils are under control in lessons, in the classroom, but they aren't in other indoor or confined places, like corridors or school buses.
Doubt you know how the girl next door caught it. You have shared her supposition: maybe she caught it elsewhere and then infected her adjacent pupils. Maybe it was snogging behind the bike sheds.
I hope they've all been doing their twice weekly lateral flow tests properly.
The balance of benefit of mask wearing while teaching/learning is directly under way is one which there is a range of judgements.
Dr Gavin Morgan, an expert in education psychology at UCL who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, known as SPI-B, said:
“From a psychological point of view, I don’t think [face masks in the classroom] are a good thing,
“Masks are negative, they hide emotions and feelings and they are an impediment to communication.
“We want to encourage children to communicate, to share ideas, to problem solve - and that is all clearly impeded by masks”.
Dr Morgan said SPI-B had warned (SAGE and thus ministers) of the “emotional cost” masks posed to school children and also raised concerns about the impact masks would have on children’s ability to interact and play with one another.
So to suggest that this is a policy which has been adopted to mollify the ire of random Tory back benchers is free (but errant) speech.

 

[classic33]

Ignoring the rather silly (imo) 'chubby mates' comment we've already been around the block on the non-comparables aspect of the UK vs Australia - no two nation's identities are exactly comparable and especially these two.

Time to move on a tad?

Ireland introduced an inter-County travel ban, on top of the 2, later 5 & then 10km travel limit.

Essential and commercial travel only and then only if you provide a negative test result. Two island nations, handling travel and entry into the country in very different ways.

And the case rate in Ireland is acknowledged as being on the increase, over the last few days. Most of the new variant.

 

[Rocky]

Pupils are under control in lessons, in the classroom, but they aren't in other indoor or confined places, like corridors or school buses.
Doubt you know how the girl next door caught it. You have shared her supposition: maybe she caught it elsewhere and then infected her adjacent pupils. Maybe it was snogging behind the bike sheds.
I hope they've all been doing their twice weekly lateral flow tests properly.
The balance of benefit of mask wearing while teaching/learning is directly under way is one which there is a range of judgements.
Dr Gavin Morgan, an expert in education psychology at UCL who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviours, known as SPI-B, said:
“From a psychological point of view, I don’t think [face masks in the classroom] are a good thing,
“Masks are negative, they hide emotions and feelings and they are an impediment to communication.
“We want to encourage children to communicate, to share ideas, to problem solve - and that is all clearly impeded by masks”.
Dr Morgan said SPI-B had warned (SAGE and thus ministers) of the “emotional cost” masks posed to school children and also raised concerns about the impact masks would have on children’s ability to interact and play with one another.
So to suggest that this is a policy which has been adopted to mollify the ire of random Tory back benchers is free (but errant) speech.

The pattern of infection within that particular class would strongly suggest it was from the pupils breathing the same air. Plus I'm not sure all children are under control in the classroom and thinking back 50 years to when I was at school, there was certainly a lot of shouting. I'm sure it hasn't changed.

One of the problem with the lateral flow tests is that they are supposed to do one of their two tests on a Sunday evening. The parents of the initial contact delayed this till Monday evening and so it is highly likely that the original case was infectious and infecting others for the whole school day.

I am familiar with Morgan's work but the psychological damage from infection is huge, as is the damage caused by 10 days isolation for all of the contacts, even if they are not shown to be infected.

I won't mention names but my wife of 34 years is an academic and has been researching mask wearing (and advocating their use) since the beginning of March last year. She has published in the BMJ, Lancet and other high impact peer-reviewed journals. I think the science, particularly, now aerosol scientists are being listened to, is incontrovertible. Of course, as with all medical/clinical interventions, the are risks and harms to go with the benefits.

 

[Ajax Bay]

Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing
Table 6 (p15) suggests that around 1% of Delta cases result in hospitalisation with an overnight stay (taking an average of the last two rows) and seems to be regardless of vaccination status.
Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%.
Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true) and no children go to hospital either (the latter is mostly the case).
About 12M adults O/16, haven't had their first jab yet. A further 12M have only had one so far and of those, 67% are susceptible, so 8M. Take away from that 20M (12M + 8M) say 40% or 8M who've been previously infected so total 12M susceptible pool. 10% catch it and 1% of those go to hospital = 12,000. Spread over (say) 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 400pd, peaking at less than 800pd. (NB Latest figure is 187 on 8 Jun.)
Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
If the government chose to delay Phase 4 relaxation this would reduce the numbers (because R would stay lower longer for NPI reasons and in the same period another 6M (in a fortnight) would get a first dose, thus reducing the susceptible population).
Note that if any relaxation is delayed too long, there's a danger that the subsequent 'exit wave' will be pushed into the autumn, cooler conditions and autumn snuffle months.
Here's another treatment (note this is hospital admissions per week):

 

[kingrollo]

I doubt there's much public appetite for an inquiry - except among those who want another stick with which to beat Boris.

The public understands we never attempted to 100% follow the science, which in any case was far from perfect.

The public also understands the many and various reasons why we didn't follow that science.

Better to focus resources and where we are and where we might be going, rather then endlessly raking over what's done.

Another stick - Lol

The blokes an elitist middle class chump. Kept in power by the rich and powerful so long as he does there bidding.

 

[midlife]

Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing
Table 6 (p15) suggests that around 1% of Delta cases result in hospitalisation with an overnight stay (taking an average of the last two rows) and seems to be regardless of vaccination status.
Table 18 (p51) vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease: Alpha 1 dose 50%, 2 doses 88%; Delta 33% and 81%.
Let's assume no one with a second dose goes to hospital (81% true) and no children go to hospital either (the latter is mostly the case).
About 12M adults O/16, haven't had their first jab yet. A further 12M have only had one so far and of those, 67% are susceptible, so 8M. Take away from that 20M (12M + 8M) say 40% or 8M who've been previously infected so total 12M susceptible pool. 10% catch it and 1% of those go to hospital = 12,000. Spread over (say) 30 days either side of peak that'd suggest (planning figures) = 400pd, peaking at less than 800pd. (NB Latest figure is 187 on 8 Jun.)
Put it this way, it's not going to be in the thousands, and the NHS can handle it (see Test 2).
If the government chose to delay Phase 4 relaxation this would reduce the numbers (because R would stay lower longer for NPI reasons and in the same period another 6M (in a fortnight) would get a first dose, thus reducing the susceptible population).
Note that if any relaxation is delayed too long, there's a danger that the subsequent 'exit wave' will be pushed into the autumn, cooler conditions and autumn snuffle months.
Here's another treatment (note this is hospital admissions per week):
View attachment 593504

I'm sure I read yesterday that out of 42 delta covid deaths 12 had both vaccinations and 7 deaths had one vaccination.

I guess this means that age and co- morbidity still a big factor if the double vaccination deaths were an older cohort.

 

[Milzy]

Can somebody more qualified tell me what they make of this because it looks BS to me.
direct from gov website

The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals. This is discussed further in paragraphs 55 and 56.

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ing_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

 

[Ajax Bay]

I guess this means that age and co- morbidity still a big factor if the double vaccination deaths were an older cohort.

And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)

[From USA CDC data - mainly Alpha VoC)

 

[Pale Rider]

elitist middle class chump

I'll have you know we have a long and much loved tradition of elitist middle class chumps in the UK.

 

[Milzy]

And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)

And almost cross-posted with @Milzy - HTH (See the blue and orange in the graph above for the idea.)
Regrettably, the majority of those who die within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test and/or have COVID-19 mentioned on their death certificate from now on will be those who had received their second dose 14+ days before testing positive. I hope people take this into account before they hug their gran.
If full vaccination gives 90% protection against death but that cohort's IFR is 1300 times higher than reference, then the IFR is still 130 times higher. (Table in quote)

so would you say it’s not worth having 2 vaccinations then?

 

[newfhouse]

Fair enough, and exactly the reason that the inquiry will be ultimately pointless. 1/2 the country will read the report and say 'that all seems fair and dandy', the other 1/2 will read the report and say 'this is a steaming pile of do-do and nothing more than a *leftie attack on the government/establishment cover-up (whichever way it goes)' Still it will fill newspapers and tv news for the next 4 years.

Better to focus resources and where we are and where we might be going, rather then endlessly raking over what's done.

There are two reasons to hold an inquiry. First, and the part that will undoubtedly become mired in politics, was the best advice available at the time followed, and if not, why not? Second, to determine what needs changing to ensure a more effective response to the next virus / variant.

But anyway, tell us, what would you do from here? Or will you just take great delight telling us that you wouldn't do whatever the government decide to do, thus putting yourself in the position of being able to say 'told you so' or 'well, they were lucky this time, but it's because of the scientists and not Boris and his decision making'.

It may surprise you that I don’t see this as left/right politics. It’s a matter of competence, decisiveness and integrity. Scientific and medical advisers with a good record of getting it right should be listened to, and any decision to ignore them or delay implementation should be made in the open and require justification.

How would you handle the upcoming date of June 21st, bearing in my mind you don't know what is around the corner?

Personally? I will carry on exactly as I am, avoiding unnecessary contact outside my family and work team. I’m not the one that set a date and failed to discourage the media from calling it Freedom Day.

 

[midlife]

so would you say it’s not worth having 2 vaccinations then?

Certainly is.... That's why there is a rush on to get second doses done. Its just that if you are old with Co morbidities the odds of surviving covid even with two doses are less than younger and fitter individuals with one dose.

 

[Ajax Bay]

so would you say it’s not worth having 2 vaccinations then?

It's absolutely worth having both doses of a two dose vaccination (knew someone would give a briefer response!) Unless you are under 16 when the maths is less one-sided, from the individual's point of view.
The first dose will (within a confidence interval) give one 33% protection against the Delta VoC after (+14) the first dose. A second dose will up that to 81%.
This reduces the chances of the individual of being infected with symptoms by that percentage, and by larger percentage against hospitalisation.
In addition, from a community PoV, (81-33=) 48% less symptomatic illness means less transmission/spread of the virus to others: a good thing.
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation
Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Delta variant: one dose = 33%, two doses = 81%

 

[PK99]

I'll have you know we have a long and much loved tradition of elitist middle class chumps in the UK.

A goodly proportion of senior Labour figures would fit that descripion

 

[lane]

One thing I observe here, more generally on the InterWeb, and in the real world, is a misunderstanding of how science works.

Many non scientists appear to think science works through certainty and consensus. Scientists know it works through uncertainty and challenge.

I don't know if that is aimed at me, but I do understand that. I think one of the biggest failings - not by the scientific community as a whole - but specifically those advising the Government was not to take action on some issues until the science backed it up - when it was fairly bloody obvious that it was likely to be the case - and there was sod all downside to taking action ahead of the science. I would specifically reference Dr Campbell who I watch on U tube - who has made many correct calls in advance of any action being taken, based on the balance of probabilities.

One would hope the inquiry would learn some of these lessons and changes will be made in future.