Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
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kingrollo
Guru
I think it's hospitalisations. If it spreads but isn't making people seriously ill we will settle for that
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
I agree. It's the threat of over-run hospitals alone that has forced changes of lockdown policy thus far.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
@Pale Rider Leave the quick (ex-miners) and the dead for a moment, are you concerned that the risks from current Variants of Concern have already fundamentally changed, or can be reasonably predicted so to do? These risks are (I think):
a) an exponential rise in cases, insufficiently checked by control measures (see the graph I attached on my long post)
b) a consequent increase in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS (might we reasonably rely on the assumption that double vaccination of the 98% most vulnerable to serious illness will protect them?)
c) vaccine evasion significantly greater than for Variant δ VoC (evidence that evasion is higher in those who've only had one dose (medium certainty))
d) a larger pool of infected which increases the risk of a new variant emerging (Note that, compared to the continent (say), the number in UK currently infected (about 60,000 - ONS central estimate) is negligible.)
e) a new VoC emerging which is either more transmissible, or more lethal, or one against which current vaccines are less effective. (None of the current Vui seem likely candidates in the short term.)
back to you too, Rolo. The hustings: what are they like?
a) an exponential rise in cases, insufficiently checked by control measures (see the graph I attached on my long post)
b) a consequent increase in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS (might we reasonably rely on the assumption that double vaccination of the 98% most vulnerable to serious illness will protect them?)
c) vaccine evasion significantly greater than for Variant δ VoC (evidence that evasion is higher in those who've only had one dose (medium certainty))
d) a larger pool of infected which increases the risk of a new variant emerging (Note that, compared to the continent (say), the number in UK currently infected (about 60,000 - ONS central estimate) is negligible.)
e) a new VoC emerging which is either more transmissible, or more lethal, or one against which current vaccines are less effective. (None of the current Vui seem likely candidates in the short term.)
back to you too, Rolo. The hustings: what are they like?
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
1 Jun: Zero deaths reported. Hospital occupancy continuing to drop:
Cases slowly rising (orange daily reported, yellow 7-day average):
Cases slowly rising (orange daily reported, yellow 7-day average):
Yes, that’s what was reported last week.
Sky News 28 May:-
The latest data on the government dashboard shows COVID cases and hospital admissions over the last seven days are up 20% from the previous week. Deaths are up 14%.
Edit to add link to figures
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital
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Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
NHSE have stopped gathering data wef 4 Apr (!) but no doubt it's there elsewhere.
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statisti...ergency-care-daily-situation-reports-2020-21/
I can see "+20%" in those admission figures (7-day average 15 May to 22 May (one week) and roughly 20% increase in cases over same 7 days period.
However Chris Hopson (Head NHS Providers) comments: "In hotspot areas, infection rates to hospitalisation rate is much lower than in previous waves." He opines: "The vaccines have not only broken the link between community infections and hospitalisations but also in terms of the level of harm that comes with catching an infection" and goes on ". . . patients tend to be younger and . . . the demand for critical care beds is significantly lower than it was in previous waves."
- Location
- Somewhere wet & hilly in NW England.
CH also said that the number of patients with Covid in hospital having had two jabs was very, very low.
Encouraging news.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Perhaps a better description might be "cases rising from a low base with a doubling time of about two weeks"
A doubling time of two weeks is not "slow" IMO.
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Curiously, the Guardian is reporting a slight rise in hospital admissions. National as in England or national as in UK?
- The widespread rise in Covid-19 cases has led to a small rise in hospital admissions on a national level, according to Guardian analysis of NHS data.
Deleted User
Guest
- Location
- Wolverhampton
No deaths at all today apparently.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Of course the Guardian is factually correct: as I said "+20% in admission figures (7-day average 15 May to 22 May (one week) and roughly 20% increase in cases over same 7 days period." UK figures drawn directly from the dashboard. Not quite sure what is 'curious'.
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
May I enquire on what data you are drawing to get your estimate? The steepest part of the non-logarithmic graph of daily cases I shared (drawn from NHS/gov.uk dashboard data) puts the doubling period at 20 days on 28 May. Is this "about two weeks"?
To compare, the doubling period from 16 Sep was 10 days. I have tried to find a UK doubling period less than that but can't find it.
Your "from a low base" point is germane to judging whether, in 10 days, the third test is passed or not.
The bank holiday long w/e means the data will not as reliable as normal for another 6 days. English and Welsh half term (including the effect from reduced testing of 7M pupils) will further muddy the figures. SPI-M_O will have their work cut out.
