Coronavirus outbreak

[PK99]

Fundamentally we are following a road map that was not designed to work in the current changed circumstances with the Indian variant.

Are we?


Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The roadmap has in it a test specific tp the point you make.

 

[kingrollo]

Are we?


Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The roadmap has in it a test
specific tp the point you make.

That just might drop off the radar ....

 

[lane]

Are we?


Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The roadmap has in it a test specific tp the point you make.

If you think that Johnson will take notice of the caveats then your comment makes sense. However given that was the situation when the last lockdown was eased on the 17th I can't say I am convinced that is the case, or indeed given everything he has done to date. As scientists said today the spread of the variant across the country is entirely predictable.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The roadmap has in it a test specific tp the point you make.

A test many scientists argued already failed at the last relaxation, certainly failed now and very unlikely to pass for 21st, alas.

Govt response to this is to say there's no reason to believe we're not on course for 21st, to leak some positive aspects of research and hold back schools data whilst schools are primary cause for concern on transmission right now.

It's not redolent of following the data, unfortunately.

 

[kingrollo]

If you think that Johnson will take notice of the caveats then your comment makes sense. However given that was the situation when the last lockdown was eased on the 17th I can't say I am convinced that is the case, or indeed given everything he has done to date. As scientists said today the spread of the variant across the country is entirely predictable.

Cue the 'captain hindsight' quote when the deaths start to mount.

 

[kingrollo]

A test many scientists argued already failed at the last relaxation, certainly failed now and very unlikely to pass for 21st, alas.

Govt response to this is to say there's no reason to believe we're not on course for 21st, to leak some positive aspects of research and hold back schools data whilst schools are primary cause for concern on transmission right now.

It's not redolent of following the data, unfortunately.

It will go ahead on Jun 21 - with a token gesture such as still wearing masks in shops.

 

[Ajax Bay]

It's looking like Boris will have to disappoint his businessmen friends and postopone the easing of restrictions on June 21......

Are we? [ following a road map that was not designed to work in the current changed circumstance]
Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

• the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
• evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
• infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
• our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The roadmap has in it a test specific to the point you make.

A test many scientists argued already failed at the last relaxation, certainly failed now and very unlikely to pass for 21st, alas.
It's not redolent of following the data, unfortunately.

@kingrollo I reckon, when considering the cohorts who'd be disappointed, the electorate will trump the 'as you put it' businessman friends, hands (votes) down, and rightly so.
@PK99 has shared the '4 tests'. On 7 May, when the 17 May relaxation was confirmed, all 4 of those tests were 'passed' in my view. Please let us know which one you think "many scientists" were right to say wasn't passed? Of course this may turn on one's interpretation of "fundamentally", which is why the government used that adverb.
On 14 Jun, when the final decision will be shared to either go ahead on 21st with the final relaxation OR to set a new date (no earlier than), I reckon those 4 tests will again be met/passed, informed by papers going to and considered by SAGE. Of course there is a range of wise, valid opinions and these get aired on the media, perhaps more than those which are broadly content with the developing situation.
Things (data) may change in a fortnight, but, looking at it now:

• the vaccine deployment programme will have progressed with excellent success. All those over 50 (plus CEV, H&SCW, UHC) in JCVI Gps 1-9 (32M) will have received their 2nd jab (jag if they're in Scotland). By 14 Jun, 10M will have had a first jab and await their second. Success!
• the evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated including against those infected with the Variant δ VoC. Note very few in (eg the 3 Bs) hospitals with serious disease from the Variant δ VoC are fully vacinated (about the percentage one would expect on RCT efficacy trial results).
• Although the infection rate has increased since early May and seems set to increase further (see graph below), the figures show that there is a low risk of a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The current numbers in hospital are the lowest this year https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare A few hospitals serving the towns where the new VoC has spread are under more than expected strain (to the prejudice of all the other healthcare for other ailments to which they need to attend). Hospitalisations will rise bit, lagging the increase in cases, but the vaccination programme has decoupled the multiplyer linkage.
• The risks from current Variants of Concern, including the 'new' one (Variant δ) are not fundamentally changed.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Please let us know which one you think "many scientists" were right to say wasn't passed?

Variants

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The risks from current Variants of Concern, including the 'new' one are not fundamentally changed.

@Ajax Bay variant cases are currently doubling close to weekly, and total cases and hospitalizations as a result rising about 30% week on week.

Clearly that's fundamentally changed, and SAGE scientists including Edmunds have said so.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Once this government has set a course, it only changes course when the disaster is already well underway. It started with not going into lockdown, not going into lockdown, not going into lockdown, oh, crikey, we better go into lockdown. Then Christmas is on, Christmas is on, Christmas is on, oh, crikey, we better go back into lockdown.

I believe the government has set a course for a 21 June unlockdown. ''Data not dates'' was something they borrowed from Sturgeon without understanding what it meant and fixed on Midsummer's day for it, which, of course, is in dates not data territory. My guess is that the date now has such overwhelming significance that, even if the data looks difficult, 21/6 is what it will be. Our only hope of avoiding a further mess is that the India variant isn't as good at spreading and escaping the vaccine as feared, and that the link between infection and hospitalisation has been significantly weakened.

 

[dodgy]

Variants

 

[dodgy]

Didn't the gubment used to show breakdown by age of infections/deaths? I wouldn't be surprised if the current uptick in infections are in the 25 and under bracket, judging by watching them the last few weeks. Hopefully none of them go on to develop life changing CFS/Long covid type complications.

 

[kingrollo]

Memes are frowned upon in NACA, and at the very least are supposed to have some context.

Perhaps you'd care to explain what relevance a sour and nasty quote from some Old Labour git who has been dead for more than 60 years has to do with the Coronavirus outbreak.

Mind, if juvenile hatred of the Tories is your thing best you watch the new documentary on the miners' strike at 9pm on Channel 5.

There should be some corkers on there.

I'm looking forward to it.

Wot - you enjoyed the miners strike ?

(Ah just realised who the poster is - figures).

 

[kingrollo]

@kingrollo I reckon, when considering the cohorts who'd be disappointed, the electorate will trump the 'as you put it' businessman friends, hands (votes) down, and rightly so.
@PK99 has shared the '4 tests'. On 7 May, when the 17 May relaxation was confirmed, all 4 of those tests were 'passed' in my view. Please let us know which one you think "many scientists" were right to say wasn't passed? Of course this may turn on one's interpretation of "fundamentally", which is why the government used that adverb.
On 14 Jun, when the final decision will be shared to either go ahead on 21st with the final relaxation OR to set a new date (no earlier than), I reckon those 4 tests will again be met/passed, informed by papers going to and considered by SAGE. Of course there is a range of wise, valid opinions and these get aired on the media, perhaps more than those which are broadly content with the developing situation.
Things (data) may change in a fortnight, but, looking at it now:

• the vaccine deployment programme will have progressed with excellent success. All those over 50 (plus CEV, H&SCW, UHC) in JCVI Gps 1-9 (32M) will have received their 2nd jab (jag if they're in Scotland). By 14 Jun, 10M will have had a first jab and await their second. Success!
• the evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated including against those infected with the B.1.617.2 (VoC) variant. Note very few in (eg the 3 Bs) hospitals with serious disease from the B.1.617.2 variant are fully vacinated (about the percentage one would expect on RCT efficacy trial results).
• Although the infection rate has increased since early May and seems set to increase further (see graph below), the figures show that there is a low risk of a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS. The current numbers in hospital are the lowest this year https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare A few hospitals serving the towns where the new VoC has spread are under more than expected strain (to the prejudice of all the other healthcare for other ailments to which they need to attend). Hospitalisations will rise bit, lagging the increase in cases, but the vaccination programme has decoupled to multiplyer linkage.
• The risks from current Variants of Concern, including the 'new' one are not fundamentally changed.

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Yes but the businessmen, who would be disappointed by a no go on June 21 are those that weild power and would cause Johnson most anxiety.

The others he can fob off with a few union jack's, and a rallying cry to protect our borders from 40 migrants crossing the channel.

btw - were you re elected as councillor ? 🙂

 

[Kajjal]

The test is whether the vaccine will take the place of lockdowns in stopping the virus spreading consistently in any significant amount.