Expanding the comparator countries I still see nothing distinctive about the UK pattern following the start of EOTHO - the pattern seems pretty consistent across the countries shown. No link to EOTHO is apparent.
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Expanding the comparator countries I still see nothing distinctive about the UK pattern following the start of EOTHO - the pattern seems pretty consistent across the countries shown. No link to EOTHO is apparent.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
I think, as I've said before, that it's impossible to deconvolute the effect if EOTHO from other measures, and it's highly unlikely to be a single, critical driver.
All of those comparator countries also relaxed restrictions in various ways in that period.
EOTHO was subsidising risky behaviour, which is why it's come in for particular criticism.
rockyroller
Guru
- Location
- 20 miles northwest of Boston, MA
finally got my hair cut after a rather annoying break due to my cutter having "a covid situation". turns out everyone in his house got it. he, his wife & their 7 yr old son. when telling me about it, he seemed to minimize it, & possibly rightly so? he had sinus pressure, still has loss of smell & tinnitus (ringing in ears), his wife had a bad cough & his son had no symptoms at all. I reminded him approx 1,000 Americans & 3,000 Brazilians are still dying every day. also told him about my good experience getting vaccinated. no reaction from him, such as: "wow, that's great, wish we were vaccinated". internally I shook my head. & his mask wearing is weak, often his nose is uncovered. glad to get my hair cut but more relieved he & his family came thru their experience seemingly successfully. I hope he gets vaccinated & stops his thinking that it's no big deal. didn't he mind losing 2-3 weeks of income? wasn't he terrified when his Wife developed a bad cough?
matticus
Guru
... most of it with hindsight goggles on.
I've just flicked back through this thread over the end-of-July, early-Aug period (EOTHO was announced early July) and I've yet to find a single post saying:
"EOTHO is madness with infections on the increase."
It's all masks, holiday quarantine rules, exam results talk.
(I didn't read every single flippin post, but the overall trend seemed clear!)
To me it's just a small blip down in the noise of this pandemic. One might leap to conclusions about the political motivations for discussing it ...
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
General comment at the time on how cases rising should be tackled and strategy made no sense:
Specifically shortly later on EOTHO.
roubaixtuesday
self serving virtue signaller
Agreed, and a point I've made myself.
It's emblematic of the catastrophic mistakes made.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Who would be discussing it "end-of-July, early-Aug"? All the discussion of the announcement had subsided and it was too soon for any possible effects to be showing in reports, let alone discussion of such reports.
Why not look at the period of the announcement? Plenty of sarcasm about it being a stupid move then: https://www.cyclechat.net/threads/coronavirus-outbreak.256913/post-6063693
matticus
Guru
Thus illustrating my point about hindsight!
If it was such an obviously dangerous move, would the CycleChat Experts sit through August without a murmur of discontent?? Come off it - there were a hundred* posts criticising people for riding their bikes in the fresh air on their own!
*may be a gross underestimate
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
Yes because the predictions had all been made well before then. No point repeating them instead of waiting for time to tell.
Oh the bike-haters on here don't seem to mind repeating themselves endlessly.Come off it - there were a hundred* posts criticising people for riding their bikes in the fresh air on their own!
*may be a gross underestimate
Wobblers
Euthermic
- Location
- Minkowski Space
I did comment that the data was noisy. You've proven nothing other than including more countries makes the data even more noisy. Despite this, there are differences - which you've yet to explain. (Hint: Belgium is not "consistent" with other countries.) I've pointed out, as has roubaixtuesday, that Eat Out was only one effect amongst several. A simple comparison between countries without first smoothing the data to reduce the noise is unlikely to yield much - because the signal we're looking for is of similar magnitude.
mjr
Comfy armchair to one person & a plank to the next
- Location
- mostly Norfolk, sometimes Somerset
New interview with the Uo Warwick researcher in https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2021/apr/19/did-eat-out-to-help-out-cost-lives
deptfordmarmoset
Full time tea drinker
- Location
- Armonmy Way
Ajax Bay
Guru
- Location
- East Devon
Thank you for sharing that - well found! Looks a quality piece of work (end Oct 2020) with persuasive conclusions. Let's hope authorities take notice and don't waste money on stuff like that again. Once restrictions are relaxed so as to allow indoor dining (no earlier than 17 May), people will not need encouragement/subsidy to indulge in that. And two thirds the adult population will have been vaccinated.
"Dr Thiemo Fetzer of the CAGE Research Centre in the Economics Department at the University of Warwick analyses the causal impact of ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ on COVID-19 infections."
"Areas with a higher rate of uptake (both from restaurants and consumers) experienced a sharp increase in the emergence of new COVID-19 infection clusters a week after the scheme began."
From the paper: "A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program is accountable for between 8 to 17 percent of all new local infection clusters during that time period."
7 Aug - UK cases = 983 5 weeks later: 11 Sep - UK cases = 3102 A 25% increase in case rates every week.
Johnno260
Guru
- Location
- East Sussex
The nuts side of my family basically disowned anyone who has been vaccinated, my sister, mother brother as they have been vaccinated, my wife was removed from all social media as she is vaccinated and as a nurse she is a government puppet.
A quote from my aunt " You chose your side"
She then cries and complains that this situations is creating divides? lol no people like you are.
I said good riddance, I said the false truths and anti mask slogans you spread are the reason others get sick and this illness spreads, my aunt has taken to going into stores un-masked so when she is challenged she creates a scene, so basically gives some poor shop keeper or a kid making some money in a store grief, this is someone who is meant to be a grown adult.
I said their whole theory to me reeks of people throwing their rattle out the pram as they have been asked to do things they don't agree with for the good of others, basically amounts to entitled human trash.
A quote from my aunt " You chose your side"
She then cries and complains that this situations is creating divides? lol no people like you are.
I said good riddance, I said the false truths and anti mask slogans you spread are the reason others get sick and this illness spreads, my aunt has taken to going into stores un-masked so when she is challenged she creates a scene, so basically gives some poor shop keeper or a kid making some money in a store grief, this is someone who is meant to be a grown adult.
I said their whole theory to me reeks of people throwing their rattle out the pram as they have been asked to do things they don't agree with for the good of others, basically amounts to entitled human trash.
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rockyroller
Guru
- Location
- 20 miles northwest of Boston, MA
wow, just wow
