Coronavirus outbreak

[Ajax Bay]

Australia is an island

The major influx of infected people into UK to get this pandemic raging in UK was from Italy and then Spain, in particular returners form half-term holidays (not something many Australians go abroad for), re-entering the UK in the cool days of late February and early March.

Estimated histogram of virus importation intensity by day. Colours show the proportion attributable each day to inbound travel from various countries.
Credit: University of Oxford / Edinburgh COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium

By 4 March, the virus was here in strength and controlling its import would have been very difficult, even if the threat had been properly appreciated. But measures taken earlier than they were (in March) would have made a difference, as is common belief, in hind-sight for those without foresight of the economic v public health (im)balance.
A 'major fail' was allowing, encouraging even, widespread recreational international travel into the UK in the summer without rigorous pre-flight testing as a condition of return by air and an effective self-isolation / quarantining mechanism. Holidaying in UK (with precautions) should have been encouraged and barriers placed in the way of foreign air travel to deter the latter.
This would, however, be 'unfair' to those with less means who just want some summer sun in Spain (say), and have got used to foreign holidays and cheap (cost, not CO2) flights.
Given the continent's proximity (that's the European continent, not Australia) the magnitude of the numbers entering UK daily mean that the 'lock-em-up' approach (eg elite/pro tennis players before the Australian Open) would be unworkable, imo (and presumably Shapps's).
With everything locked down (and it's winter) with low travel volumes, the UK can work the new regime/protocols till Palm Sunday / start of the school holidays, at least.

 

[tom73]

The major influx of infected people into UK to get this pandemic raging in UK was from Italy and then Spain, in particular returners form half-term holidays (not something many Australians go abroad for), re-entering the UK in the cool days of late February and early March.
View attachment 571875
Estimated histogram of virus importation intensity by day. Colours show the proportion attributable each day to inbound travel from various countries.
Credit: University of Oxford / Edinburgh COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium

By 4 March, the virus was here in strength and controlling its import would have been very difficult, even if the threat had been properly appreciated. But measures taken earlier than they were (in March) would have made a difference, as is common belief, in hind-sight for those without foresight of the economic v public health (im)balance.
A 'major fail' was allowing, encouraging even, widespread recreational international travel into the UK in the summer without rigorous pre-flight testing as a condition of return by air and an effective self-isolation / quarantining mechanism. Holidaying in UK (with precautions) should have been encouraged and barriers placed in the way of foreign air travel to deter the latter.
This would, however, be 'unfair' to those with less means who just want some summer sun in Spain (say), and have got used to foreign holidays and cheap (cost, not CO2) flights.
Given the continent's proximity (that's the European continent, not Australia) the magnitude of the numbers entering UK daily mean that the 'lock-em-up' approach (eg elite/pro tennis players before the Australian Open) would be unworkable, imo (and presumably Shapps's).
With everything locked down (and it's winter) with low travel volumes, the UK can work the new regime/protocols till Palm Sunday / start of the school holidays, at least.

You look to be missing the point like Shapp's It's they as like us are not totally cut off. Trade still happens in whatever way you want to do it.
We can't have anything open if we don't get real on enforced quarantine for all no matter what. Our pic N mix approach to the whole pandemic is not working. It never was and won't end this any quicker. If the government put some effect into finding how to make "Jonnie foreigner" approach's shown to be working.Work here Instead of put effect into reenforcing an anti none British way. Which is in the end is what he's doing here. we'd have been in a much better place right now.

 

[mjr]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-...1a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&pinned_post_type=share

Has anyone shown him a map ? Australia is an island and has been for 1000's of years. Since the pandemic has Australia suddenly become 100% self supporting and has no need of anything from the outside?

The page you linked is currently titled "Capt Sir Tom 'inspired the best in us all'" and I don't think the good knight has much to do with Australia or has much use for maps any more.

 

[johnblack]

You look to be missing the point like Shapp's It's they as like us are not totally cut off. Trade still happens in whatever way you want to do it.
We can't have anything open if we don't get real on enforced quarantine for all no matter what. Our pic N mix approach to the whole pandemic is not working. It never was and won't end this any quicker. If the government put some effect into finding how to make "Jonnie foreigner" approach's shown to be working.Work here Instead of put effect into reenforcing an anti none British way. Which is in the end is what he's doing here. we'd have been in a much better place right now.

They are one of only a few countries that are "food independent", measured by the UN, so have far less dependence on neighbours and imports which is lucky really as they are so far away from everything else. makes it easier for them to control borders.

 

[tom73]

They are one of only a few countries that are "food independent", measured by the UN, so have far less dependence on neighbours and imports which is lucky really as they are so far away from everything else. makes it easier for them to control borders.

No one is talking about stopping good's it about controlling people and risk they bring. Having family in Australia I know which approach they favour. They had a "normal" Christmas and give or take have had a "normal" life for mouths. You can't have your cake and eat it covid won't care if have a cheep winter sun holiday or not. All it care's about infecting as many people as possible.

To put this another way our schools are suit but are borders are open to anyone that's all you need to know.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I thought it was the absence of 2nd dose vaccination information for the over-65s that is the problem.

No, the issue is that, by choice, the Oxford-AZ vaccine Phase 3 trial did not include many over 65s. So, in that cohort of participants (actual vaccine and meningitis 'control'), the low numbers meant the results had a very wide 'confidence' range.

So the various European states who have chosen, as is their national prerogative within the EMA authorisation, not to use the Oxford-AZ vaccine for their O/65s are perfectly reasonably doing that on the basis that the trial didn't give evidence the vaccine 'works' for oldies.
No evidence that it wasn't efficacious: but rather weak evidence that it was. This is why, ill-advisedly (given national French vaccine hesitancy), Macron said that this vaccine was "quasi-ineffective" (as reported, I have tried to find what he actually said en francais). Additional lab-based study work offered evidence was shared with (eg) the UK JCVI and the EMA which gave them confidence to authorise the vaccine's use for over 65s.

Hopefully EU states can use their Pfizer supplies to jab the older, vulnerable element of their communities and use what supply of the Oxford-AZ vaccine they receive this month to vaccinate their health care workers. The extreme cold storage logistics of the Pfizer will make this a more complicated approach than if they could use the fridge stored vaccine for all their care homes and less mobile seniors in rural areas of the continent. This will make increasing the vaccination rate a little more difficult.

By March, there will be enough (expected to be persuasive) data from the millions of Oxford-AZ vaccinated UK 80+ (single dose) to allow those 'show-me-trial-evidence' states named to see real effectiveness evidence. On its current programme/progress the UK should have vaccinated all those eligible for a 'Senior Citizen' state pension by 25 Feb.

In the EU this will take at least a month longer, with the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer). But the EU has deliberately adopted a lower risk threshold approach to authorisation, just compounding the supply delays resulting from hesitant and risk-averse procurement (tardy contract signing).

 

[classic33]

The page you linked is currently titled "Capt Sir Tom 'inspired the best in us all'" and I don't think the good knight has much to do with Australia or has much use for maps any more.

The clue is in the word "live".

 

[mjr]

You can't have your cake and eat it covid won't care if have a cheep winter sun holiday or not. All it care's about infecting as many people as possible.

It doesn't care about that either, really. It's a virus. It just viruses.

Don't anthropomorphise covid. It hates that.

 

[Oldhippy]

That is a big problem with a number of diseases now they are given a personality that we have to go to war with it.

 

[mjr]

In the EU this will take at least a month longer, with the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer).

More than what? Higher than what? Because it probably ain't gonna be more than the UK (rate-wise) for deaths for many because most EU states got their case rates down lower sooner and didn't have governments permit a Christmas bender. Some health officials are already cautiously opining that they think their areas may have avoided the "third wave", the wave currently ebbing away from the UK, whereas the UK seems yet to see a wave it doesn't crash into feet-first.

But the EU has deliberately adopted a lower risk threshold approach to authorisation, just compounding the supply delays resulting from hesitant and risk-averse procurement (tardy contract signing).

The EU's population is the EU's population and others have noted above that at least two large countries seem to be more vaccine-hesistant than the UK's, so being seen to do that more detailed checking is vital to getting a high-enough vaccination rate in the long run. There's no point setting off at a sprint if it means they'd fail to cross the finish line. If the UK had German levels of hesitancy, several of Boris's vaccine gambles almost certainly wouldn't work.

 

[mjr]

More on mask use. I understand Bavaria and maybe other German states are moving to requiring FFP2 (Face Filtering Piece level 2) use more and more, including transport and shops. Can our German correspondents tell us if they can get reusable ones there and are they cheaper than the €11 they're selling for in Boots's in the UK?

France's Public Health Council is now recommending masks that meet standards (including cloth ones that meet standards) rather than general cloth ones. The National Academy of Medicine disagreed by pointing out "The effectiveness of 'general public' masks has never been faulted when they are correctly worn."

Some Belgian hospitals have banned cloth masks, apparently arguing that cloth masks are "worn badly" without apparently realising that people who wear them badly will bodge the medical masks too.

No sign of tightening from the Netherlands, but they were slow to require masks at all.

Do any tighter mask rules show much benefit yet?

 

[Ajax Bay]

"the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer)."

More than what? Higher than what?

Sorry if that was difficult to understand.
More than if the states of Europe had vaccinated earlier and at a similar rate to, say the UK (or even at half the rate of the UK).
Higher than if (as above . . . ) with a third of the population vaccinated and the beneficial impact on cases.

The EU's population is the EU's population and others have noted above that at least two large countries seem to be more vaccine-hesistant than the UK's, so being seen to do that more detailed checking is vital to getting a high-enough vaccination rate in the long run. There's no point setting off at a sprint if it means they'd fail to cross the finish line. If the UK had German levels of hesitancy, several of Boris's vaccine gambles almost certainly wouldn't work.

You make a good point about hesitancy. This article offers an overview with historical perspective (Germany):
https://www.dw.com/en/in-germany-vaccinations-have-always-been-political/a-56221965
I guess we don't properly appreciate that this vaccine hesitancy may have been why the EU Commission was so keen to:
1) press the companies discovering, trialling and manufacturing the vaccines:to accept most of the risk if something went wrong;
2) to delay signing for 3 months (is this the opposite of (as you put it) the UK's gambles on agreeing early to purchase a variety of vaccines, btw?);
3) to spend weeks (longer than UK et al) deciding whether to license the various vaccines after the results of the Phase 3 trials were available;
4) delay the start of the vaccination programmes in the states of the EU so they would get going start after the guinea pigs of Israel, USA and the UK and their success would help persuade their various sceptical populations.

 

[Unkraut]

More on mask use. I understand Bavaria and maybe other German states are moving to requiring FFP2 (Face Filtering Piece level 2) use more and more, including transport and shops. Can our German correspondents tell us if they can get reusable ones there and are they cheaper than the €11 they're selling for in Boots's in the UK?

FFP2 or the blue clinical masks have been a requirement for the last 10 days or so - shops, public transport and in some places in high streets. Bavaria, with a nasty infection rate, has been tougher on this and introduced them earlier. Marcus Söder, their minister-president has actually achieved some popularity for this robust approach, but then Austria and Italy are not far away.

I got a free handout of FFP2 (due to age!!) which are not reusable, although you can stretch their use a bit. I bought some clinical masks in Aldi pretty cheap, and will soon have to get some more FFP2. No idea how much they will cost. Might be in a position to let you know tomorrow!

 

[PK99]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55916020?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=601a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&UK could not close borders like Australia - transport secretary&2021-02-03T10:20:55.427Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f2d5bfee-4fb5-4948-aa33-8f6698355674&pinned_post_asset_id=601a781a424aad02ec84e9dc&pinned_post_type=share

Has anyone shown him a map ? Australia is an island and has been for 1000's of years. Since the pandemic has Australia suddenly become 100% self supporting and has no need of anything from the outside?

Australia is 207% food self-sufficient
NZ is 185%

They can close their borders and still eat.

we are 64%

We close our borders we go hungry

Eg eggs, we are 84% self-sufficient, the rest are imported

Did you know that the UK is:

• 18% self-sufficient in fruit
• 55% self-sufficient in fresh vegetables
• 71% self-sufficient in potatoes

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

"the tragic result that many more of the European old and vulnerable will die (and that the case rates will stay higher for longer)."

Sorry if that was difficult to understand.
More than if the states of Europe had vaccinated earlier and at a similar rate to, say the UK (or even at half the rate of the UK).
Higher than if (as above . . . ) with a third of the population vaccinated and the beneficial impact on cases.

You make a good point about hesitancy. This article offers an overview with historical perspective (Germany):
https://www.dw.com/en/in-germany-vaccinations-have-always-been-political/a-56221965
I guess we don't properly appreciate that this vaccine hesitancy may have been why the EU Commission was so keen to:
1) press the companies discovering, trialling and manufacturing the vaccines:to accept most of the risk if something went wrong;
2) to delay signing for 3 months (is this the opposite of (as you put it) the UK's gambles on agreeing early to purchase a variety of vaccines, btw?);
3) to spend weeks (longer than UK et al) deciding whether to license the various vaccines after the results of the Phase 3 trials were available;
4) delay the start of the vaccination programmes in the states of the EU so they would get going start after the guinea pigs of Israel, USA and the UK and their success would help persuade their various sceptical populations.

I think the decision to use the vaccine off licence (by delaying the 2nd dose beyond the initial approval) will also counts as a UK gamble, though I don't know whether @mjr would include that.

On vaccine hesitancy: Though the UK rate of hesitancy is fairly low, the BAME part of the population is very hesitant and they're the ones who are already being hit the most.