Coronavirus outbreak

[cookiemonster]

Hong Kong’s banned all passenger flights from the UK from midnight tonight our time, with the exception of a Cathay flight which was already in the air by the time an announcement was made. But those passengers will have to quarantine for 21 days, instead of the normal 14.

A question. This strain was first seen in the UK in September. Why the 3 month wait?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Sweden bulletin.

A colleague's mother died of the disease at the weekend. She (my colleague) sings in a choir in Gothenburg. 60% of the choir have tested positive. The Sweden case rate is accelerating fast and despite our current predicament is still twice ours.

We have MPs advocating that legal restrictions are wrong, and that giving people information and allowing them to make their own decisions is the way forward. Get thee to Sweden!

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Grant Shapps has claimed on tv the UK is doing 50% of the genomic sequencing on strains in the world, which is quite a claim given a couple of other countries take this very seriously. It may be why some other countries are claiming not to have the 'new' strain.

He did downsize the figure to 45% and then seemed to get fixated with words that begin with the letter v. Very very virulent virus variant, etc.

 

[marinyork]

A question. This strain was first seen in the UK in September. Why the 3 month wait?

Wasn't sequenced till October. Intense observation started end of November.

2 to 3 week delay on genomic data.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Hong Kong’s banned all passenger flights from the UK from midnight tonight our time, with the exception of a Cathay flight which was already in the air by the time an announcement was made. But those passengers will have to quarantine for 21 days, instead of the normal 14.

A question. This strain was first seen in the UK in September. Why the 3 month wait?

The strain was detected back to Sept by retrospective analysis of historic samples, not tracked from sept in real time.

They find new mutations all the time, the retrospective analyses were done only after it was realised the Kent outbreak was associated with a new variant.

 

[marinyork]

He did downsize the figure to 45% and then seemed to get fixated with words that begin with the letter v. Very very virulent virus variant, etc.

Well he's right about the very in my opinion.

WFH and having a break to watch morning tv and it's not really being taken that seriously.

 

[kingrollo]

As it stands the boxing day sales are still going ahead - would I be captain hindsight to suggest they shouldn't.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

Wasn't sequenced till October. Intense observation started end of November.

2 to 3 week delay on genomic data.

It would be interesting to know how Italy was able to confirm a couple of cases (UK returners to Italy already quarantining) so quickly.

 

[marinyork]

Wasn't sequenced till October. Intense observation started end of November.

2 to 3 week delay on genomic data.

The NERVTAG report contains several strands of evidence and only one is genomic. Swabs have detected higher levels of this virus strain in patients than the bogstandard EU1 strain.

The problem is it calls it 'moderate' evidence which three scientists have explained means very substantial.

PHE updates the data regularly and day to day there isn't much change. Now a day or two is seeing massive jumps over large geographic areas. Rural-ish and spacious suburban areas where you would expect things to spread a bit slower, nope. Same rate.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

As it stands the boxing day sales are still going ahead - would I be captain hindsight to suggest they shouldn't.

It's beyond ridiculous.

Either
(1) We have a dangerously fast spreading new variant which will overwhelm the health service in short order, in which case we need to clamp down on it everywhere

or

(2) we don't, in which case the London/ South tier 4 restrictions should not be imposed.

The unstated policy seems to be to allow cases to get to crisis point before acting.

It's nuts. There's no logic.

 

[kingrollo]

.....and how come France seems to have control of its own borders ? - I mean they are in the EU ?

 

[marinyork]

It would be interesting to know how Italy was able to confirm a couple of cases (UK returners to Italy already quarantining) so quickly.

I suspect it was because it was Rome. There is an amazing hospital facility in Rome. Lab capacity in Italy, even to this day is spread extremely unequally in Italy.

 

[kingrollo]

It's beyond ridiculous.

Either
(1) We have a dangerously fast spreading new variant which will overwhelm the health service in short order, in which case we need to clamp down on it everywhere

or

(2) we don't, in which case the London/ South tier 4 restrictions should not be imposed.

The unstated policy seems to be to allow cases to get to crisis point before acting.

It's nuts. There's no logic.

My son works in a shop - and has a 9 hour shift on boxing day - Im a member of the CEV group - I must admit I wish he wasn't going in !

 

[marinyork]

As it stands the boxing day sales are still going ahead - would I be captain hindsight to suggest they shouldn't.

I think Boris will be on tv very soon.

He may not be able to persuade anyone in the country based on the internet, the papers, morning tv and phone ins.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

CEV group

What's that?