Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[Ajax Bay]

Excess mortality (ie number more than the 2015-2019 average)

Maybe if we'd followed the Swedish model (restrained NPIs, schools kept open) there would have been less excess deaths, but I suspect there are so many different factors in play (NB higher percentage of Sweden's population (10M) live in towns/cities than UK). Germany's looking to climb past UK's total (but pop. is 25% larger).

 

[Andy in Germany]

Excess mortality (ie number more than the 2015-2019 average)
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Maybe if we'd followed the Swedish model (restrained NPIs, schools kept open) there would have been less excess deaths, but I suspect there are so many different factors in play (NB higher percentage of Sweden's population (10M) live in towns/cities than UK). Germany's looking to climb past UK's total (but pop. is 25% larger).

Also our gov't is reluctant to bring back masks and other restrictions. I understand it but with the C-19, cold and Flu going up I think they need to move a bit...

 

[Ajax Bay]

our gov't is reluctant to bring back masks and other restrictions.

Would you care to offer a reference for the efficacy of various "other restrictions"?
What would be your 'favourite', Andy?

 

[Andy in Germany]

Would you care to offer a reference for the efficacy of various "other restrictions"?
What would be your 'favourite', Andy?

For example, non essential events where people would be in close proximity. I see the point though; to be truly effective a lockdown needs to be complete, which at the moment wouldn't be possible.

 

[Ajax Bay]

For example, non essential events where people would be in close proximity. I see the point though; to be truly effective a lockdown needs to be complete, which at the moment wouldn't be possible.

Good luck writing and enforcing that law, were it enacted.
Didn't China just try to do this? Did that end well?

 

[Andy in Germany]

Good luck writing and enforcing that law, were it enacted.
Didn't China just try to do this? Did that end well?

Indeed, that's the dilemma.
Then you add the federal structure of our government so the states would have to agree to new restrictions even after the federal government has agreed to it. This is for very good historical reasons and intended to make sure no-one can introduce legislation that takes people's freedom away.
At the moment the death rate seems to be slowing. I can't find the statistics on Long Covid though.
Currently the main restriction is that we have to wear masks on public transport, which I'm glad about. This has been in force for at least a year now and there's no sign of it going away. I tend to wear a mask in shops although it's not mandated. I'm in an 'at risk' group so if I can avoid catching C-19 or indeed a cold or flu, then I want to.

 

[PeteXXX]

Northampton & Kettering hospitals have suspended visiting and masks are compulsory.

 

[Ajax Bay]

I think masking by default (or wearing an 'exempt' lanyard) in a hospital/surgery/care home setting (latter of the staff, not inmates) is entirely reasonable and sensible, and is within the gift of those institutions/buildings management to impose/enforce.
Improved ventilation/air exchange on public transport and indoor close stranger settings is an improvement opportunity I fear we will not grasp.
Not in favour of broad brush visiting restrictions in illness/care settings. One of the pandemic's tragedies is the general prevention of close(st) relatives not being able to visit/'say goodbye'.

 

[Ajax Bay]

At the moment the death rate [in Germany with COVID-19 as cause/part cause] seems to be slowing. I can't find the statistics on Long Covid though.

On 'per million' death rates - see graph.
In UK - see text below graph.
Getting quality stats on 'long COVID' (any nation) will be an unsolvable challenge (imho).
A starter is the WHO definition of 'it' (see below graph).

England and Wales - Week 49 (9 Dec), 11,694 deaths; 6.2% above average (687 excess deaths) of which 326 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, 2.8% of all deaths.
Post COVID-19 Condition, commonly known as 'long COVID'
" defined as the continuation or development of new symptoms [within the] 3 months after the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection, with these symptoms lasting for at least 2 months with no other explanation.
" common symptoms of long COVID can include fatigue, shortness of breath and cognitive dysfunction, [but] over 200 different symptoms have been reported that can have an impact on everyday functioning."

 

[Ajax Bay]

Flights into Rome from Beijing direct on Boxing Day.
On arrival the Italian airport staff tested all on board. First flight 38% +ve. Second flight 51% +ve.

 

[Ming the Merciless]

Flights into Rome from Beijing direct on Boxing Day.
On arrival the Italian airport staff tested all on board. First flight 38% +ve. Second flight 51% +ve.

Source?

 

[midlife]

Source?

Was all over the news a couple of days ago.. The link name is a bit odd!

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-pa...hong-kong-as-restrictions-are-lifted-12775498

UK now asking for negative test before getting on a plane in china

 

[Salad Dodger]

Update on Mrs Salad:
Her COVID test today was a very positive positive (if you see what I mean) but she is feeling rather better than the last few days. A bit of a head cold today, but without the sore throat. Currently, she is sitting on the sofa, happily watching Disney films......

 

[Psamathe]

With the levels of virus being suggested in China, new variants must be a concern. Very difficult to know what is really going on as some of the official reports I've read from China are somewhat difficult to believe.

Without reliable information about variants from Chinese authorities I can't see how pre-boarding flight testing is going to achieve much; we already have plenty of virus circulating in UK and stopping infected people boarding means we wont get a chance to identify variants (which will get to us in the end whatever we do).

That said, I'm not a professional epidemiologist to and happy to follow their best advice.

The health secretary Steve Barclay was briefed by the chief medical officer Chris Whitty on Thursday and was told there was no clear evidence of significant benefits from testing travellers from China.

Ian

 

[Ajax Bay]

some of the official reports I've read from China are somewhat difficult to believe.

You have mastered that 'massive understatement' thingy.
In April China required the test protocol below.
Passengers who have no infection history and vaccinated 3 times PCR tests and 1 rapid antigen testing (RAT) before boarding, all the results are required to be negative.
PCR 7 days before boarding and start quarantining
PCR 48 hours before boarding
PCR 24 hours before boarding
Rapid antigen test within 12 hours before boarding - report presented at check-in
China government followed the science but chose an entirely predictably impractical strategic goal (of zero COVID).
Tragically whereas the various national tactics across the world 'flattened the wave' to an extent, the older disproportionately unvaccinated Chinese will suffer catastrophic IFR and health care services.