Corona Virus: How Are We Doing?

[srw]

New incidence tracker launched today. https://covid.lcp.uk.com/

I am quite immoderately excited by this. At last someone is applying basic projection techniques to the data from ONS and PHE to provide an up-to-date estimate of how many people are actually being infected today. It's long overdue, even if the result is very ugly indeed from a public health perspective.

I don't believe I know any of the people involved, but it's not impossible - the consultancy is a very good, very progressive one I've worked with in the past, and I've got friends who do work for them. The technique is a basic one used for this sort of data where there's a delay in reporting. If I was being really picky I'd quite like an error bar on the estimate, but I'll let them off.

 

[MrGrumpy]

367 deaths out of 67,000,000 ..... wow, that is one deadly disease .... How many over 80 ? ... what were the total deaths for the day 17-1800 ??
JW !

So if your over 80 in your book then your just collateral.

 

[Landsurfer]

80,000 excess deaths. To me that is a lot I don't know if it seems a lot to you. I guess what seems a lot to one person doesn't to someone else.

WOW. thats a lot of excess deaths .... reference to that please ... ONS ?

 

[Landsurfer]

So if your over 80 in your book then your just collateral.

No .. in your book ... your happy for hundreds of thousands to die, lose their homes and jobs, rather than providing real world support and care for the over 80's ... you are happy for children to go without education, food and support rather than protect the most vulnerable ...
To protect the vulnerable requires the rest of society to produce income for the country ... not hide under the stairs !!!

 

[lane]

WOW. thats a lot of excess deaths .... reference to that please ... ONS ?

Can't be bothered just Google excess deaths UK info is widely available from the ONS.

 

[lane]

No .. in your book ... your happy for hundreds of thousands to die, lose their homes and jobs, rather than providing real world support and care for the over 80's ... you are happy for children to go without education, food and support rather than protect the most vulnerable ...
To protect the vulnerable requires the rest of society to produce income for the country ... not hide under the stairs !!!

We certainly have some hard choices. Unfortunately if you don't keep strict controls the NHS will be overwhelmed quickly whatever support you give the over 80s with many tens of thousands more deaths. Best keep restrictions a few more months until vaccine is rolled out.

 

[newfhouse]

WOW. thats a lot of excess deaths .... reference to that please ... ONS ?

Yes, it is a lot. Too many.

England only figures are here. 63,401 to the end of November. ONS figures presented by PHE.
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/stati...lance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html

And ONS covering England and Wales here.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ndandwalesprovisional/weekending4december2020

You’re welcome, although I have a feeling you won’t bother to read it.

 

[MrGrumpy]

No .. in your book ... your happy for hundreds of thousands to die, lose their homes and jobs, rather than providing real world support and care for the over 80's ... you are happy for children to go without education, food and support rather than protect the most vulnerable ...
To protect the vulnerable requires the rest of society to produce income for the country ... not hide under the stairs !!!

So your solution is what then ?

 

[lane]

New incidence tracker launched today. https://covid.lcp.uk.com/

I am quite immoderately excited by this. At last someone is applying basic projection techniques to the data from ONS and PHE to provide an up-to-date estimate of how many people are actually being infected today. It's long overdue, even if the result is very ugly indeed from a public health perspective.

View attachment 563521

I don't believe I know any of the people involved, but it's not impossible - the consultancy is a very good, very progressive one I've worked with in the past, and I've got friends who do work for them. The technique is a basic one used for this sort of data where there's a delay in reporting. If I was being really picky I'd quite like an error bar on the estimate, but I'll let them off.

So if that is replicated throughout UK we be about 72,000 cases a day compared with an estimated 100,000 a day at height of first peak?

 

[lazybloke]

My better half has symptoms. Postal tests have run out, but the local drive-through site had loads of availability.
Just got back; tests done.

Spending most of the rest of the year locked indoors would be a bit sad. On a positive note, I'd have an excuse not to send any more cards.

 

[Unkraut]

To protect the vulnerable requires the rest of society to produce income for the country ... not hide under the stairs !!!

But if the rest of society decides to carry on as normal, it won't be possible to protect the vulnerable nor have much hope of treating them if they fall seriously ill.

I don't think there is anyone who doesn't see this as a very real dilemma, balancing saving lives with saving livelihoods, but the beginning of a way out of it would be for everyone to abide by the corona rules. There seems to be a huge overlap between those moaning the loudest about the hygiene rules and simultaneously complaining about lockdowns.

 

[Stephenite]

The local tracing team called me on Monday to say I'd been in close contact with a colleague the previous Wednesday who has since tested positive. Close contact round here means to be less than two metres apart for a continuous 15 minutes. So it's ten days quarantine for me - backdated to the day after contact - and a test. I booked the test online for 20 minutes later. Result two days later was negative.

A couple more days chokey and I can go and out and source some mince pies - though i fear Norway is sold out.

 

[vickster]

Swabbed this morning, now isolating ahead of ankle surgery on Friday...hopefully negative!

No call, so clear for op tomorrow. Very stressful day finishing off work, handing over and tidying the house a bit.
Going to have a pedal on the turbo for the last time in lord knows how long In front of the Masterchef final!

 

[lane]

367 deaths out of 67,000,000 ..... wow, that is one deadly disease .... How many over 80 ? ... what were the total deaths for the day 17-1800 ??
JW !

21% of deaths in Wales now from covid so it is much more significant than you in imagine. Bear in mind that that is with all the restrictions - what would the percentage be with no controls?

 

[fossyant]

A little positive news for a change. MrsF was furloughed in April then lost her job in October. She's just been offered a permanent position this evening (tea time) after a second interview earlier this week. She thought she hadn't got it as they said they'd call Wednesday or Thursday, but it's the company's year end and they have been busy.