How much is overall spending on bikes, bike parts and accessories down?
I tend to agree that there has to be a saturation point where sales of adult bikes have to slow down, and it's hardly suprising that it's happened this year after the welter of bad publicity we've had.
I still see more adult cyclists about than I ever used to, so bikes are being used. There is still a problem with getting the cycling habit established, no matter how good the intentions of somebody buying a bike for the first time. Whether it's unrealistic expectations, bad experience with traffic or whatever, the fall-out rate is very high.