I'm another in the 'when they start puncturing' camp.
Several months back, I got 3 in the same ride. It was a wet ride so that probably made matters worse but they'd been fine up until then. No signs of major wear, tread still good and only the usual nicks and cuts etc, so (imo at least) it's not always obvious just by looking that a tyre is on it's way out. I can't complain though, I'd got just over 6000km out of them! Conti 4 Seasons.