What happened to global warming then?

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Linford

Guest
I'd just like to put my contribution to this thread, below is a pie chart showing the composition of Venus. It has the highest surface temperature of any planet in the Solar System, surpassing that of barren and airless Mercury. This is despite it being only just beyond the inner edge of Sol's habitable zone where liquid water can exist. That is the atmosphere of a planet with a runaway greenhouse effect. Water vapour only makes up a paltry 17ppm compared to CO2 which makes up over 96%.

800px-AtmosphereofVenus.svg.png


Correct me if I'm wrong, but i can't see anyone disputing the effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas :huh: . We only have to look at the way which low cloud cover keeps surface tempertures up overnight in comparison to a clear sky to see that all this stuff above and around us will act as a thermal insulator.
 
U

User482

Guest
Problems with the original paper????

r2 verification of 0.5 shows statistical correlation of red noise. Both MBH98 and WA 07 have r2 stats at 0.2 and less. Mostly much much less. The data is complete garbage.

Mann cheated, and nobody has been able to reconstruct his analysis based on his data. Fact.

You don't understand the issues and refuse to look at the data. Fact.

Why am I wasting my time talking to you? Now that is a very good question.
Ah, we are back to accusations of cheating. Are you hoping to prove it by virtue of repeating it? You've offered nothing else...

You continue to peddle long-debunked myths whilst denouncing all evidence you don't like as a conspiracy. It's quite clear that you are incapable of objective analysis on this issue.
 

VamP

Banned
Location
Cambs
Ah, we are back to accusations of cheating. Are you hoping to prove it by virtue of repeating it? You've offered nothing else...

You continue to peddle long-debunked myths whilst denouncing all evidence you don't like as a conspiracy. It's quite clear that you are incapable of objective analysis on this issue.

As tempting as it is to make reference to your sig line, I will make one last effort to show causality between using a completely wrong methodology for evaluating data, then presenting the result as proof of your original hypothesis, obfuscating at every turn when the faults are pointed out to you, lying to a Congressional hearing, and subsequently spending the rest of your scientific career throwing mud at any and all detractors; and being referred to as a liar and a cheat.

I take it as read that we are all agree that using Mann's method of short-centered principal components is biased and will produce hockey sticks from red noise; as you have not attempted to argue otherwise despite my repeated invitations to do so.

Ergo MBH98 is based on a flawed premise, and while we can broadly agree with it's findings, they were reached in error, and are unsupported by the datasets used.

So the only matter that remains controversial is whether Mann made the error in good faith, or whether he knew.

Exhibit 1: I have posted above, a reference to WA 07 methodology, which effectively replicates Mann's, including the r2 verification data. When Mann was questioned by the Committe on Energy and Commerce, he was specifically asked as to whether he had calculated this data for his analysis. He replied that he had not, as it would be a foolish thing to do. However, amongst the data that has come to the surface during the investigations of the various email hackings, is the source code for his original analysis, which clearly shows that he not only had run the r2 verification, and witheld the data from his paper, but that he had subsequently lied about the fact.

Exhibit 2: Curry on Mann

McIntyre’s analysis is sufficiently well documented that it is difficult to imagine that his analysis is incorrect in any significant way. If his analysis is incorrect, it should be refuted. I would like to know what the heck Mann, Briffa, Jones et al. were thinking when they did this and why they did this, and how they can defend this, although the emails provide pretty strong clues. Does the IPCC regard this as acceptable? I sure don’t.

Exhibit 3: Eduardo Zorita on Mann (in his review of the rather flawed paper by McShane et al 2010)

The issue of the un-centered calculation of principal components is already quite clear (the way in which MBH conducted the analysis is not correct).

and

They claim that the uncertainties are much larger than those included in the 'hockey stick reconstruction' and that the shaft of the hockey stick is rather an artifact of the method. These conclusions are, however, hardly new. The flatness of the shaft is actually only defended by Mann et al. and more recently in a much weaker fashion then 10 years ago.
I dunno guys, will you engage with some of this, or are you just gonna sit there mumbling: ''...mmm Mann, ... mmm... plagiarised report.. mmm discredited... ...mmm debunked myths.... mmm.... ...show us more''.

There are far more respectable characters in climate science than Mann, I really don't understand why you have so much vested in defending him. Especially as you don't seem to know much about him.

Who wants to put money on AR 5 not having any Mann studies referenced in it at all?
 

VamP

Banned
Location
Cambs
For those of you who have been good enough to wade through the pages of this sometimes obscure science, I have here an interesting graphical representation of the major paleoclimate reconstructions that have been done to date. Not thousands, or hundreds, as some here might try to convince you, but 10. The general trends are not always in keeping with Mann's 'findings' or should I rather say 'manipulations' but I think we can all agree that there is strong evidence for a warming signal even if we remove Mann.

The study has not yet been published, so you might take it's findings with a pinch of salt, but the graphical representations on pages 23 and 24 are non-controversial.
 
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User482

Guest
I take it as read that we are all agree that using Mann's method of short-centered principal components is biased and will produce hockey sticks from red noise; as you have not attempted to argue otherwise despite my repeated invitations to do so.
I don't need to argue otherwise: the evidence de-bunking this myth is freely available in the public domain.

Mann's work has been repeatedly confirmed, McIntyre & McKitrick's hasn't. Simple as that.

Next!
 

Archie_tect

De Skieven Architek... aka Penfold + Horace
Location
Northumberland
I am concerned that I can't find where the location of the most recent temperature bases have been taken [ie since 1996]. Data is only relevant if it is consistent. If the survey stations/ base measurements are taken in locations corrupted by local identifiable variation then the validity of the information recorded is questionable. This needs to be clarified.
 
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User482

Guest
So you can prove a negative? I don't think so.
 
I can't say I'm finding it quite as edifying as you are. VamP seems to me to be hawking a sideshow.

Hmmm, the Jury's out but VamP has produced the most detailed rebuttal of the hockey stick I've read so far but has not refuted anthropogenic warming as many others do, therefore, as far as I'm concerned, he's singing from the same hymn sheet. His posts are interesting and User482 rebuttals equally interesting. I can't yet say I'm convinced but we're a cut above the bloke on the Antiques Roadshow who used a piece of furniture to illustrate we've had warm spells before. Oh, and don't take this the wrong way but I care not if you're edified or not.
 

Linford

Guest
Hmmm, the Jury's out but VamP has produced the most detailed rebuttal of the hockey stick I've read so far but has not refuted anthropogenic warming as many others do, therefore, as far as I'm concerned, he's singing from the same hymn sheet. His posts are interesting and User482 rebuttals equally interesting. I can't yet say I'm convinced but we're a cut above the bloke on the Antiques Roadshow who used a piece of furniture to illustrate we've had warm spells before. Oh, and don't take this the wrong way but I care not if you're edified or not.


It was the Best of Times, It was the worst of times, It was the age of Wisdom...............
 

MacB

Lover of things that come in 3's
Got to say I'm scoring this one heavily to VamP right now.

Obviously I know bugger all about the subject and can't follow the maths anyway :biggrin:

The gist I'm getting is that the methodology/formula used by Mann would produce the 'hockey stick effect'(whatever that is) no matter what data it was applied to. This, as far as I can tell, seems to be acknowledged by everyone. Also acknowledged seems to be the idea that the conclusions weren't awry(broadly correct seems to be the vogue term) it was just the method.

So, did Mann, as VamP believes, realise that this flaw existed and chop/excise/jiggle to make it go away? Or was it a genuine error that doesn't amount to a heap of beans? Was he so target orientated that he subconciously took these steps or were they in mind all along?

It's a mystery but from a neutral viewpoint I'm seeing facts(or at least things proclaimed as fact) on one side countered by subjective rhetoric, and avoidance of addressing the facts, on the other.

Just my ever helpful 2p worth :whistle:
 

mangaman

Guest
Got to say I'm scoring this one heavily to VamP right now.

Obviously I know bugger all about the subject and can't follow the maths anyway :biggrin:

The gist I'm getting is that the methodology/formula used by Mann would produce the 'hockey stick effect'(whatever that is) no matter what data it was applied to. This, as far as I can tell, seems to be acknowledged by everyone. Also acknowledged seems to be the idea that the conclusions weren't awry(broadly correct seems to be the vogue term) it was just the method.

So, did Mann, as VamP believes, realise that this flaw existed and chop/excise/jiggle to make it go away? Or was it a genuine error that doesn't amount to a heap of beans? Was he so target orientated that he subconciously took these steps or were they in mind all along?

It's a mystery but from a neutral viewpoint I'm seeing facts(or at least things proclaimed as fact) on one side countered by subjective rhetoric, and avoidance of addressing the facts, on the other.

Just my ever helpful 2p worth :whistle:

I agree McB. VamP has been coy about his job but he seems to know his stuff.

In particular "principle componenet analysis"

I was involved in a research project which pertained to use this and got published.

The principle author (and me) didn't understand it. It's massively complicated and I believe only an expert mathmatician would understand it

I think VamP has been very balanced on this thread.

I'm a long-standing fan of User482 and jonesy generally, but I don't think they've really answered VamP's question.

I suspect Vamp's knowledge of principle component analysis - if real - implies he has genuine knowledge in this area.

User482, jonsey and FM all declared their positions on this - ie above average knowledge but not professionls in the field.

It would be nice if VamP declared his position too
 

slowmotion

Quite dreadful
Location
lost somewhere
[quote="Crackle, post: 1718912, member: 1011" I can't yet say I'm convinced but we're a cut above the bloke on the Antiques Roadshow who used a piece of furniture to illustrate we've had warm spells before. [/quote]

Ahem! Dendrology? Google Briffa, Jones, Mann. Just pick the tree rings of choice.
 
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