I've gone from 105kg to 76kg in the last 13 months, and my average road speed on day rides has improved by 30% from around 15kph to 21kph, I can also ride longer at that sort of speed (averaged 21.3 on a 200km audax on Saturday).
So in my experience shedding a load of lard makes a big difference in speed. It also vastly improves recovery time and I'm no longer left gasping for breath on long climbs.