Vuelta a España 2012 (with spoilers)

[smutchin]

Good research Marinho but essentially flawed
FWIW, the ITT in this Vuelta is 40km and includes a cat 3 climb. That may help J Rod to some extent against some others but not Froome.

Yup, it will favour Contador over J-Rod for one.

I think it may have been mentioned upthread already, but in case anyone needs reminding, look at the results of the time trial round Lake Annecy in the 2009 Tour de France, which was over similar terrain and distance to this year's Vuelta TT...

d.

 

[marinyork]

Good research Marinho but essentially flawed
FWIW, the ITT in this Vuelta is 40km and includes a cat 3 climb. That may help J Rod to some extent against some others but not Froome.

Too far back to find a hilly TT (2009 is too far back).

I think Rodriguez will be supremely motivated after the TT in the vuelta, coming 2nd in the GC, the course and so on. Then there's that Froome bloke, he'll be motivated for almost the same reasons.

 

[thom]

Yep, dont think nobody can match purito in this kind of finish, but still it almost looked like Froome made way for Rodrigues. I reckon he was happy with second and didn't even dream of winning.

Yes - he left a big inside gap on one of the last corners, possibly to pick a lesser gradient but it appeared he wanted to be paced from then on.
Time bonuses playing a part too.
Froome could hardly be better placed after 6 days and with both Henao and Uran Uran giving excellent support, I suspect this will be beyond Contador if Froome stays on his bike. Froome just looked really good.

 

[smutchin]

Doesn't Rodriguez get an extra 8 seconds over Froome from time bonuses? (20 seconds for first place, 12 seconds for second, IIRC.)

Edit: Rodriguez now 10 sconds ahead of Froome on GC according to the official website. He was 1 second behind J-Rod, so that's the 8 second difference in bonuses plus a 1 second gap at the finish line.

I've been misinformed - turns out the bonuses (or bonifications, if you prefer) are 12, 8 and 4 seconds, so that's a 4 second difference in bonuses and a 5 second time gap at the finish line.

Sorry. Must stop pretending I know what I'm talking about.

d.

 

[smutchin]

Too far back to find a hilly TT (2009 is too far back).

I think Rodriguez will be supremely motivated after the TT in the vuelta, coming 2nd in the GC, the course and so on. Then there's that Froome bloke, he'll be motivated for almost the same reasons.

You may well be right about Rodriguez but I don't think Contador's performance in the 2009 TdF TT can be entirely discounted as an indicator. Obviously a lot of water under a lot of bridges since then, but I imagine Contador is still a decent time-triallist, and the course clearly suits him.

(caveat: see previous post re me knowing what I'm talking about.)

d.

 

[thom]

Degenkolb again. Interesting finish on a racing circuit. Perhaps a few seconds gap will give Froome more time.
Looks like Uran lost time - dunno yet where Contador, Rodders or Valverde were
edit the "Big Favourites" all seem to be 2 secs back so no change apart from Uran.

 

[thom]

So Uran punctured after the crash, so was adrift as the team car was stuck in the rear.
The finish really was quite odd on the race circuit. Nice smooth corners and undulations, very exposed, gaps opening up.
But a complete absence of spectators. Rather like this thread. Is something else going on today ?

 

[rich p]

It was just too dull Thom!!
It even lacked the scenery of the TdF and the finish reminded me of the moon or the finish in a quarry a few years ago in S France. No atmosphere. Good, hard sprint by Degenkolb though. Is he getting better or is the sprint field just too thin to judge?

 

[smutchin]

Rather like this thread. Is something else going on today ?

Hellish day at work and haven't had a moment to check on the racing. Hoping to watch the highlights when I eventually get home, if I'm not too tired...

Sounds like a pretty dull stage though. Tomorrow's should be more interesting.

d.

 

[Chuffy]

So Uran punctured after the crash, so was adrift as the team car was stuck in the rear.
The finish really was quite odd on the race circuit. Nice smooth corners and undulations, very exposed, gaps opening up.
But a complete absence of spectators. Rather like this thread. Is something else going on today ?

I missed the highlights today (and the last two days) and it does sound a bit deathly dull. Mountains tomorrow!

 

[thom]

It was just too dull Thom!!
It even lacked the scenery of the TdF and the finish reminded me of the moon or the finish in a quarry a few years ago in S France. No atmosphere. Good, hard sprint by Degenkolb though. Is he getting better or is the sprint field just too thin to judge?

I think it's very thin but he deserves credit for what he gets.
It's noticeable though that Swifty-Ben is consistently fluffing his lines in these finishes. Froome left him well placed but he was swamped by a whole pile of guys with better acceleration, sat up and finished 10'th.

A couple of stages this week have been rather underwhelming, (the other being the circuit stage). I wonder how much of this is due to financial constraints spilling over from Spain's problems. Wasn't Geox Cobo's sponsor last year ? I wonder why they don't want to invest in cycling at the minute.

 

[rich p]

I think it's very thin but he deserves credit for what he gets.
It's noticeable though that Swifty-Ben is consistently fluffing his lines in these finishes. Froome left him well placed but he was swamped by a whole pile of guys with better acceleration, sat up and finished 10'th.

A couple of stages this week have been rather underwhelming, (the other being the circuit stage). I wonder how much of this is due to financial constraints spilling over from Spain's problems. Wasn't Geox Cobo's sponsor last year ? I wonder why they don't want to invest in cycling at the minute.

You may be right re the money side of it. It's slightly odd that there is no stage south of Madrid either. Quite a few second tier races in Spain have either failed to find or really struggled for sponsors this year.

 

[lukesdad]

The excuse was the cost logistics of transfers, made going south of Madrid prohibitive.

 

[Jon Baines]

It'd be nice to see it go south of Madrid but the money just isnt there for them to go all over the country like the Tour, it sucks but at the same time it gives us a race like this year so not all bad

 

[thom]

You may be right re the money side of it. It's slightly odd that there is no stage south of Madrid either. Quite a few second tier races in Spain have either failed to find or really struggled for sponsors this year.

Yes, there's many a story of races in financial trouble, even the San Sebastian classic. Along with the crisis in Spain, I think it is a legacy of the drug controversies of the past. Hopefully by dealing with the past, cycling will show it is not afraid to clean itself up and give races like the Vuelta a brighter future.