Good morning,
Where is going to end is, according to my crystal ball;
People
- Everybody will need to have either a bank account or a State issued Visa/Mastercard prepaid debit card which will accept Universal Credit/State Pension payments.
Smaller towns/villages
- No bank branches
- One or two cash machines, probably not charging directly but operated by third parties and funded by the banks
- Some post office (or M&S money etc.) deposit facilities as many business still need to pay in cash, payment amount probably capped.
Extras in the larger towns/cities
- One or two bank branches from banks like Metro, with a small number of customers who are willing/need a branch and are willing to pay for it. Similar to the market for American Express cards, Visa/Mastercard work fine but some like Amex.
I suspect that whatever data breaches that occur from home working will be treated as an acceptable cost of having no branches, once enough are closed no government will have the nerve to do anything other than issue fines, which will be passed on to the account holders as lower interest on deposits or higher charges.
The big test will come when a shop or a collection of shops have to close as they can't take cards because of a technical failure and how long that failure lasts and how easy getting cash as backup is.
I am out of touch on this but it used to be the case that in Scotland that cash in a cash dispenser belonged to the central bank until it was issued, whereas in England it belonged to whoever was operating the cash machine at all times. This is important as it affects the amount of cash that could be in the machines.
As for acceptance, one of my favourite wet led pubs started taking plastic a couple of years ago and many, many older customers now pay by card, it seems to be pretty even between the costs charged by the card provider per transaction and the cash deposit charges made by the bank. Especially if you take into account a customer spending more on a card than they would if they had taken £20 out with them.
The big losers will be the cash in hand economy and those small number of people and businesses who can't get a bank account/pre paid card/Merchant account, for businesses, as they fall foul of some form of credit check or we don't want you as you won't be spending enough.
Bye
Ian