i find it hard to cheer for anyone in astana colours, but Nibbles has been a contender for years, he hasn't suddenly sprung up. His bike handling was always touted as a boon on the cobbles and so it proved. there were a couple of sequences where he was just flying over the pave.
Bertie's 'mechanical' looks to be a bit of a smokescreen, why not change bikes or rear wheel? Kwiato punctured on the penultimate pave section (when the top 4 broke away) and rode to the end to get a spare wheel, so why didn't Bertie get help? methinks he doesn't want to admit he wasn't up to it - all part of the mind games that goes on, such as Froome saying he was ok after the crash the day before
should be another interesting one today - pan flat until the very end. Kwiato and Sagan to go head to head?