Thanks very much for all your replies. Just to cover a few questions:
I ride all rear round and keep the bike clean - sometimes a wash after each ride in the dirtiest weather.
I strip the bike down and service bearings after winter and take mudguards off and check cables.
I googled and found a load of people with same issue relating to 4700 STI - I didn't search wider re other shimano groups.
The fist time it happened I had no real warning until the start of the ride, then shifting got progressively worse. Arriving home after 50 mile I found the nipple hanging on by a couple of strands.
Previous shifters were Campag Chorus (shimergoed) which I re-cabled every 3 years although never found any damage after this time 12-15000 miles. (Campag cables)
I'll try Shimano stainless cables on next change - and monitor closely.
When I have a chance I'll look at the removed shifter to see if I can find anything.
Thanks again.