Not ever having been successful in the ballot, I get a bit stressed about no-shows and people bending the rules.
That is exactly how I feel. Well, annoyed rather than stressed
There are people out there who want to do whatever event it is, but people bend the rules to increase their chances, have little or no intention of doing it or defer due to pathetic reasons. Through not being fully committed to it, those people have stopped others who want to do it getting in through the ballot. Yes, I know there are other ways but it comes a point where you can't keep asking people for sponsorship.
Take last year and deferrals as an example. People openly admitted to seeing the weather forecast and deferring because it was going to rain
which in turn then reduced the number of ballot places this year so stopping people getting in. Road cycling is an outdoor pursuit and so you have to deal with rain just like thousands did.
I had a place in the Berlin Marathon on 2012 but after running the Brighton Marathon, I damaged my ITB on a training run to the point where I would be in pain after just 2km and after 6km, the pain made me feel physically sick. Saw a physio who in a nice way basically said no chance to Berlin and so I deferred on medical grounds. 2013 came and I running still caused me pain so I emailed them to withdraw but to my surprise, my place rolled over again. It was at that point that I didn't take it up because while I had medical reasons, I was stopping others.
In regards to "estimated times", I put an optimistic at the time but realistic estimate knowing that I have a year to get there. I wouldn't say that I can do it in 4h to increase my chances because I just know there is no chance.
They say that if you can't beat them, join them. The problem is, you are then lowering yourself to their standards