The odds on getting a ballot place will no doubt lengthen next year. Of the 24,000 places. Maybe 4000 or so were held for charities leaving around 100,000 applicants for the remaining 20,000 places, so about a 1 in 5 chance, assuming the ballot is not weighted in some fashion. It would be interesting to know if they do that, as they do in the London marathon, where age and sex is taken into account, you can also get entries to that based on previous times, my brother qualifies as good for his age now, being able to do a 3.15 at 50 years of age. You actually stand a much better chance of getting into the LM the older you are.
It is not easy to make direct comparisons between the 2 though. The age profile of the cycle event is much older than the LM. I am 50 yet was not at all out of place on this ride. It is not so easy as well to compare times either. Probably as a rough guide, a 5 hour 100 miles is not a million miles away from a 3 hour marathon, but weather and topography probably make much more of a difference on a bike compared to running.
I guess I would prefer it if they just kept it as a straight ballot with no weighting for now. I think that is likely to change in future years as the event grows more and more popular. There is of course the option of allowing more places as well, the LM certainly grew considerably in numbers from when it first started as they felt out just how many the course could handle. The staggering of the starts certainly helps and it may be able to grow some more yet, particularly if they were to move the professional race. The women are keen to have a road race as well, rather than the circuit race, so maybe they could both take place on the Saturday and leave the whole of sunday free for the sportive. That could mean a slightly later start as well!
Either way I don't imagine that it will be any easier to get in next year or subsequently!