I've slept on it and my view is: Froome, Contador, Porte.
On the punditry thing, I sometimes pick who I think will win, and sometimes who I want to win. During the Giro, I was often doing the latter for stages, but my overall picks were based on analysis. EBH and Alaphilippe are on form and lumpy semi-sprints suit them (as it would Ben Swift, were he here). Kristoff should have been up there but something's not quite right. On the other hand, few people have picked winners like Aru and Herrada...