Of course, but you can't rule out the other contenders - I was thinking of Tony Martin in particular with my comment. Although Wiggo looks well ahead at this early stage, Martin must be in the reckoning this year, especially now he's not riding for Cav and will have a very strong team around him. I suppose the main difference is that Sky appear to be treating Paris-Nice as a race rather than as part of their preparations for other races.
I also think you're being a bit harsh on Cuddles. He's not that old!
Andy's performance in the time trial was truly woeful, even by his standards and even taking into account that it is still early in the season. Maybe he'll aim for the Giro this year instead of the TdF?
d.
I agree with most of what you say with the exception of Tony Martin. I don't believe he'll be a GT contender without changing his style and body shape.
The field of true contenders is relatively small though even if you can't rule out a left field rider coming through.
I still think that the 2 favourites are Andy Schleck and Cuddles (despite the encroaching years and senility of the wacky Aussie!). Of the rest, I can't see Valverde, Basso, Nibali, Menchov, Gesink or Sanchez being quite good enough but I may well be wrong. I have been many times.
Mollema may go well again though although I'm not sure his TT-ing is great either in a parcours that may favour them.
Just musing really!
(Apologies to any GT favourites I may have omitted!)