Nairo Quintana

[Stonechat]

15/2 and 8/1 not great odds for someone not even certain of riding the tour...

edit... although only froome and nabali are better price, froome as clear favorite...

edit 2 or known to some as nibali

or knobbly

 

[montage]

Ten Dam each way

 

[rich p]

Ten Dam each way

Too much Monty.
I'll have Five Dam on Quintana.

 

[Mr Haematocrit]

Doesn't the tour also feature cobbles this year and quintana lacks experience on this surface which should be taken into consideration.

 

[rich p]

Doesn't the tour also feature cobbles this year and quintana lacks experience on this surface which should be taken into consideration.

There some cobbles but Froome, Contador and Nibali will find them equally challenging.

 

[e-rider]

Is he worth a TdF punt at the bookies next year for overall winner?

If there are a lot of climbs and summit finishes and very few time trial miles then I'd put £10 on him?

 

[jifdave]

If there are a lot of climbs and summit finishes and very few time trial miles then I'd put £10 on him?

theres a long 54km tt at the end where an on form froome will put at least 4:30 into quintana, maybe more

 

[Stonechat]

There some cobbles but Froome, Contador and Nibali will find them equally challenging.

Doesn't Contador get on well with cobbles?

 

[rich p]

Doesn't Contador get on well with cobbles?

He's not very accustomed to them and was quoted as fearing crashes and mechanicals on pavé. The main contenders will just be grateful to get through that section unscathed with no time losses.

 

[e-rider]

theres a long 54km tt at the end where an on form froome will put at least 4:30 into quintana, maybe more

If they both have good form it will be close then, but I suspect that one of them will have 'average' form, or a crash or something else and it won't be that close in the end. Of course there will be other riders in the mix too. Impossible to say really at this stage!

 

[jdtate101]

The problem with pure climbers is that they are so light they tend to bounce around on the cobbles, and as such find it harder to put the power down and remain stable. I think the early pave stages will prove equally difficult for all the main contenders and they will keep their powder dry until clear of them. Expect to see the likes of Sagan and Cancellara doing well (obviously their kind of terrain), and I would expect Saxo, Astana and Sky to bunch up around their leaders to protect them and pace them back should they drop off in those sections. Having said that ever since the course was announced you can bet the DS's will have lined up a healthy dose of Pave for the team recon and training, especially for those who've never ridden it before.

 

[jifdave]

The commentators always mention how great nibali is as a 'bike handler' anyone know if he can cobble?

 

[montage]

He's not very accustomed to them and was quoted as fearing crashes and mechanicals on pavé. The main contenders will just be grateful to get through that section unscathed with no time losses.

Stuck it to Lance a few years ago though.

One of the biggest factors with the cobbles is the recovery the next few days. Anybody who has ridden in Flanders/ Roubaix or other extended cobble sections will know that the pain doesn't stop as soon as the ride does. For the wrists especially - if there is lots of getting out of the saddle the following stages this could have an impact! Any one with any mild saddle sores, never mind golf ball sized ones, will be feeling it for a few days as well.

 

[SWSteve]

Any one with any mild saddle sores, never mind golf ball sized ones, will be feeling it for a few days as well.

Gel seat cover?

 

[beastie]

The problem with pure climbers is that they are so light they tend to bounce around on the cobbles, and as such find it harder to put the power down and remain stable. I think the early pave stages will prove equally difficult for all the main contenders and they will keep their powder dry until clear of them. Expect to see the likes of Sagan and Cancellara doing well (obviously their kind of terrain), and I would expect Saxo, Astana and Sky to bunch up around their leaders to protect them and pace them back should they drop off in those sections. Having said that ever since the course was announced you can bet the DS's will have lined up a healthy dose of Pave for the team recon and training, especially for those who've never ridden it before.

The time gaps from the pave should be relatively small, as long as the GC boys avoid any bad crashes. However there will be crashes! The pace going into the first Secteur is gonna be full gas, crash then and they could lose many minutes. Spartacus v Boonen FTW I think. Sagan has never ridden Paris Roubaix but I expect he will be up there as we'll.