Millar and the IOC

[thom]

I can't agree, he played a perfect team captain role at the worlds, has possibly the best tactical brain of the likely selection, and could do the same - more difficult with only 5 riders - job at the Olympics. It isn't Team Sky that's racing at the Olympics, it's GB. There is only one rider with a real chance on a sprinters course, and that means 4 riders will sacrifice everything to get him to the finish in the right position.

I don't see this course as being a sprinter's course. Sure there are no mountains but I think Box Hill will cause breaks with non-trivial teams represented. Given Cav is likely to win any mass bunch sprint, no team represented in a break will do any work to help bring it back.Team GB alone won't be able to do all that and particularly if there are weaker links. If any team member is below par, it places more pressure on the rest and I don't see how you could disagree with that.
Don't get me wrong, from a GB point of view I'd like Cav to win but I'm just trying to explain my opinion on team GB's chance and in particular people's expectations for Cav.

From the point of view of an interesting race... I might commit treason and say a successful breakaway with real hardmen individual rouleurs slugging out a tactical finish would give a more worthy winner than Cav nipping past on the line.

 

[oldroadman]

I don't see this course as being a sprinter's course. Sure there are no mountains but I think Box Hill will cause breaks with non-trivial teams represented. Given Cav is likely to win any mass bunch sprint, no team represented in a break will do any work to help bring it back.Team GB alone won't be able to do all that and particularly if there are weaker links. If any team member is below par, it places more pressure on the rest and I don't see how you could disagree with that.
Don't get me wrong, from a GB point of view I'd like Cav to win but I'm just trying to explain my opinion on team GB's chance and in particular people's expectations for Cav.

From the point of view of an interesting race... I might commit treason and say a successful breakaway with real hardmen individual rouleurs slugging out a tactical finish would give a more worthy winner than Cav nipping past on the line.

Interesting viewpoint. First, I agree ath Box Hill is not adifficult climb at pro level, but nine times will have a wearing down effect. However it's a long flat run back The Mall. More than one team will have people who believe they can win a sprint, so there are likely to be quite a few working to fetch any break back. If you were say, USA's DS and had a non-sprinter in a six man break, would you gamble? Er, no, you would get Farrar there inside 10km to go at flat out pace, with help from others. Or maybe play poker and lose. Or possibly get help from other teams who have no hope of a win, but might just appreciate returned favours another time at a race where they can get a result. It happens in pro racing, even at the Olympics (!!) and after 200+ kilometres only the bigger players will be left anyway.

 

[Alan Tullett]

Is there any American who believes Farrar will beat Cav in a sprint? Goss maybe, but not on today's form, Greipel ditto. I think a break with some strong riders could stay away although they'll have to go by the 5th or 6th time around if they want to get some distance. On current form Boonen must have a good chance! We need a plan B just as Sky did today.

 

[thom]

Is there any American who believes Farrar will beat Cav in a sprint? Goss maybe, but not on today's form, Greipel ditto. I think a break with some strong riders could stay away although they'll have to go by the 5th or 6th time around if they want to get some distance. On current form Boonen must have a good chance! We need a plan B just as Sky did today.

I agree. Farrar is not a problem for Cav these days. As in the worlds, Goss and Greipel are the only likely to really challenge him in a bunch sprint.
Who really knows how form will turn out in 4 or 5 months time in any case ? Boonen's got resurgent good form and Cancellara seems back to being a train at times.

Funnily enough, Garmin refused to work with Sky in MSR to get back to the front, at which point Sky gave up. And today Sky couldn't bring back a split in the peloton in Gent-Wevelgem. It's not so much that it might not be a large sprint field, its just that on Box Hill all teams will look to drop Cav. That tactic is being executed time and again this season already.

Cav with a fully committed team will pick up Grand tour wins where there can be pan flat stages and many teams are not really competing because they have other race priorities. One off races where teams are smaller, courses are hillier, where there's more at stake and at which there are many more interested parties competing really lessen his prospects.

So I do think a split will form and stay away from Cav unfortunately. I thought best GB plan would be to bluff fully committing to Cav and then let Geraint Thomas get in a break. Geraint will not be in the road race though...

 

[Alan Tullett]

Yes, there aren't many other options, are there? We're not a great 'classics' country after all? Maybe Froome as he can handle Box Hill but is no sprinter on the flat as far as I'm aware. We have 2 top riders, one on the flat and one as a TT/GC contender but not a lot at the highest level of racing in between those two extremes. This is an area we need to work on. The Maldon Hell of the East is on the same day as the Tour of Flanders. We need more races like that to develop 'break' and 'classic' style riders.

 

[festival]

Box will be a wearing down process only to shead some of the lesser riders, its not tough enough. The big teams will all ride a high tempo up box hill trying to stop any attacks. Anyone who does escape will find it almost impossible to stay away on the run in unless Cancellara is on form. Bunch sprint finish.

 

[Alan Tullett]

If there is any kind of split on one of the earlier or middle ascents of Box Hill and Cav and a few of the other 'pure' sprinters are the wrong side of it we can expect quite a few teams to work hard to keep it that way. Belgium will I'm sure, they've got loads of options - maybe too many; Spain, if Freire is in the right place; Australia, with Goss and Gerrans and probably some others as well. Not sure we're going to have many allies in bringing back a split and with Wiggins concentrating on the TT, Millar, who knows, and only a couple of other riders a bunch sprint is far from assured. Hunt and Stannard couldn't bring back a split at GW nor could a 5-man Sky team at MSR. The Olympic course is nowhere near as tough as either of those two races and that is our ace in the hole, but there will be a lot of effort put in by some big countries to get rid of Cav; 'blocking' tactics, which I think may have been employed at the descent during GW or high-tempo riding to get rid of Cav rather than to stop attacks and then there's always the possibility of crashes, badly timed punctures etc. It's going to be an interesting tactical race with a lot more difficulties for Brailsford than Copenhagen. I'd probably say 70% bunch sprint; 25% split in the peleton and 5% mediumish break succeeds.

 

[Strathlubnaig]

Good show on radio scotland today, which heavily featured Millar. He came across very well. He also made it clear he does not see himself as an Olympic athlete. Listen on iplayer here http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01dtgl1/Cheats_and_Champions/

 

[thom]

Good show on radio scotland today, which heavily featured Millar. He came across very well. He also made it clear he does not see himself as an Olympic athlete. Listen on iplayer here http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01dtgl1/Cheats_and_Champions/

Related article here : David Millar hints he may not compete in Olympics even if BOA lifetime ban overturned

 

[oldroadman]

If there is any kind of split on one of the earlier or middle ascents of Box Hill and Cav and a few of the other 'pure' sprinters are the wrong side of it we can expect quite a few teams to work hard to keep it that way. Belgium will I'm sure, they've got loads of options - maybe too many; Spain, if Freire is in the right place; Australia, with Goss and Gerrans and probably some others as well. Not sure we're going to have many allies in bringing back a split and with Wiggins concentrating on the TT, Millar, who knows, and only a couple of other riders a bunch sprint is far from assured. Hunt and Stannard couldn't bring back a split at GW nor could a 5-man Sky team at MSR. The Olympic course is nowhere near as tough as either of those two races and that is our ace in the hole, but there will be a lot of effort put in by some big countries to get rid of Cav; 'blocking' tactics, which I think may have been employed at the descent during GW or high-tempo riding to get rid of Cav rather than to stop attacks and then there's always the possibility of crashes, badly timed punctures etc. It's going to be an interesting tactical race with a lot more difficulties for Brailsford than Copenhagen. I'd probably say 70% bunch sprint; 25% split in the peleton and 5% mediumish break succeeds.

French dictionary alert....peloton. Two "o", think how a bike looks as a little aide memoir.

 

[Andy84]

London 2012 Olympics: Dwain Chambers lifetime ban lifted after British Olympic Association bylaw is overturned

Dwain Chambers and David Millar will be cleared to compete for Great Britain in the 2012 Olympics tomorrow after the British Olympic Association’s life ban for doping offenders was ruled illegal

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ol...-Olympic-Association-bylaw-is-overturned.html

 

[Alun]

The BOA accepted a while ago that they would lose, something which comes as no surprise to a lot of people. I wonder how much this little charade has cost?

 

[rich p]

I hope Millar doesn't take up the option. I'd hate to see it all dragged up again, him having to defend his stance and the brickbats thrown by the press and some of the other athletes.
He has more to lose than gain IMO.

 

[Strathlubnaig]

Tell me this though, just because an athlete is eligible for selection, does it mean they must be selected, could the BOA simply not select the person ?
I don't think Millar will ride this summer in London even if given the chance, the interview on Radio Scotland kind of made that clear.

 

[dellzeqq]

Tell me this though, just because an athlete is eligible for selection, does it mean they must be selected, could the BOA simply not select the person ?

Chambers' lawyer was saying that if he (Chambers) wasn't selected, he'd go to court and force them???? How would that work? (I think the BOA are resigned to picking him).