johnnyh said:
not being that up on doping and detection methods, is there a chance he could be doing something and it not be detectable?
Since reading the Death of Marco Pantani, I've done a bit of background reading on doping, so I'll have a go at an answer.
The reports indicate that doping, in the last 20 years, has been progressively moving towards natural mimicking, and seemingly undetectable, methods. EPO and blood doping(transfusing your own or another blood as needed) have had the aim of increasing the volume of red blood cells(RBC's) and thus the ability to transport/consume oxygen. The haemocrit(HTC) level is the amount of RBC's present as a %age of blood volume. The normal ranges for men are stated as 41-50% and so testing is looking for HTC's above 50% as an indication of doping. This type of test doesn't prove the use of EPO or blood doping. It's also given dopers a ceiling to aim at. Other reports indicate that, with 20 mins warning, they can dilute, using stored plasma, back to a 50% level.
They are trying to refine tests to detect EPO but it breaks down in the system long before it's effects wear off. Cyclists could use EPO several weeks in advance of competition thus ensuring no traces are detectable. For blood doping they're looking at tests to determine if RBC's are from another source. If the riders own blood is used then they're now looking at the actual breakout of the RBC's. A possible method is the by ratio of mature to immature RBC's. If a rider has blood doped he would theoretically have an anomalous amount of mature v immature RBC's present. There is a fair bit of secrecy around testing methods being looked at, presumably to stop people finding ways round them. Equally there's plenty of research into improving enhancement methods, the military have trialled quite a bit. The blood passport idea makes some sense as it's a rolling record of various stats including HTC levels. Apparently your HTC level is pretty constant and any big alterations would be highly suspicious.
Previously my attitude to doping was quite different, having done a bit of reading, I now realise just how much of a benefit, and how dangerous, it can be. I've seen performance improvements as high as 20% cited. Even if it's only a fraction of this, couple it with improved recovery, and it would make a mockery of any clean riders attempts to win a big tour. The jury is still out on the longer term impact to health but the short term can be devastating. I hadn't realised how much some of the doping could thicken the blood. The idea that it gets so thick, the heart struggles to pump it, scares me. I've read of cyclists having to exercise at intervals through the night to avoid heart failure.
I've always considered myself quite cynical but, given these risks, I'm shocked by the amount of 'medical' professionals, linked to cyling, that have been involved.