Select group of 10 or so riders to stick together at the head of the peleton, Bertie to jump from that near the finish but not enough to be decisive overall. Its day one of the big hills - if I was Bertie I wouldnt be counting on the Astana boys to protect his yellow jersey from here to Paris. Much as I am sure he would love to stuff Lance, I think tactics will win the day and he will keep his powder mostly dry for when a big effort can be decisive.
Outside chance for Sastre as he is so far back - he may be allowed to run and take the stage but not by much so that he doesnt become a GC contender again.