Kajsa Tylen: The Billie Dovey 81 miles a day progress thread

[velovoice]

If my wonky stats are right it looks like Alicia is going to try to get past Kajsa's total. She put in a big day yesterday and she's been averaging a smidge over 200k per day this month. She has a required rate of a smidge under 200k for KT's total.

Could get exciting (in a kind of spreadsheety way)

Have you got her figures? I haven't been following on Strava or anything and my impression from FB is that she has had a lot of sub-100k days, so the projection to pass Kajsa is quite surprising!

 

[Dogtrousers]

Have you got her figures? I haven't been following on Strava or anything and my impression from FB is that she has had a lot of sub-100k days, so the projection to pass Kajsa is quite surprising!

OK ... here goes. Not 100% guaranteed.

I think she's currently on 47,224 km / 29,343 mi with 24 days to go.

That gives her required rates:

• Kajsa's total 52,025km requires almost bang on 200km/day
• Billie Dovey's total 47,642 requires 17 km/day (ie it's in the bag)

It was Alicia's big kick this month (188 miles yesterday, 200km/day so far) that made me think she has KT's total in her sights.

History
Jun 4,538 km 168 km/day, 104 mi/day (starting on the 4th)
Jul 4,924 km 159 km/day, 99 mi/day
Aug 4,606 km 149 km/day, 92 mi/day
Sep 4,206 km 140 km/day, 87 mi/day
Oct 4,454 km 144 km/day, 89 mi/day
Nov 3,516 km 117 km/day, 73 mi/day
Dec 4,073 km 131 km/day, 82 mi/day
Jan 4,644 km 150 km/day, 93 mi/day
Feb 3,643 km 130 km/day, 81 mi/day
Mar 2,871 km 93 km/day, 58 mi/day
Apr 3,746 km 125 km/day, 78 mi/day
May 2,003 km 200 km/day, 124 mi/day (up to the 10th)
TOTAL 47,224 km 138 km/day, 86 mi/day

 

[Aravis]

Presumably Alicia will get the female over 60 record with whatever mark she sets. Although Kajsa's total isn't really relevant to her, I can see that at this stage it could provide an incentive to post as good a record as she possibly can.

The evidence is suggesting that a total in the early 30,000s can probably be comfortably beaten, so hopefully someone will try before too long. If I were female I might even think about it myself in a couple of years' time! Unfortunately the realistic target for people like me is René Menzies' 62,785 miles in 1952...

I do feel a bit sorry for Alicia, as she was rather overtaken by events. That's true of Kajsa, of course, but in her case it always seemed to add to the interest surrounding her. When I had a look at Alicia's data a couple of months ago (mainly to find out if she was still going) I noticed comments about motivation being a serious problem at times. I doubt that her campaign has always been the happiest of experiences, and I imagine she's fallen well short of what she expected to do.

But let's be upbeat. Well done for seeing it through, and earning the place in history.

 

[Mugshot]

Presumably Alicia will get the female over 60 record with whatever mark she sets.

She'll be delighted with that, she's 56.

 

[Aravis]

She'll be delighted with that, she's 56.

Aaargh! I had 63 in my head. Terribly sorry!

 

[Dogtrousers]

I must admit that I haven't been following Alicia all that closely, beyond clicking the "kudos" button on Strava when I've been gathering data for Steve or Kajsa. But this could provide an interesting finale. (Or it could be total coincidence and she's not got KT's total in mind at all!)

Right now she's on 47,386 km / 29,444 miles with 23 days to go and her rate for KT is up to 202 km/day or 125 mi/day. She should pass Bille Dovey sometime tomorrow.

Caveat: All my figures are subject to stupid errors, but these ones even more than most.

 

[Mugshot]

I must admit that I haven't been following Alicia all that closely, beyond clicking the "kudos" button on Strava when I've been gathering data for Steve or Kajsa. But this could provide an interesting finale. (Or it could be total coincidence and she's not got KT's total in mind at all!)

Right now she's on 47,386 km / 29,444 miles with 23 days to go and her rate for KT is up to 202 km/day or 125 mi/day. She should pass Bille Dovey sometime tomorrow.

Caveat: All my figures are subject to stupid errors, but these ones even more than most.

According to the "Plan" on her website her intention was to do 38038 miles. Her aim was certainly to beat Billies record but I'm not sure that Kajsa featured much in her thoughts for the most part, however it would make perfect sense for her to go after Kajsas total now.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Alicia has 20 days left, and has passed Billie Dovey's total on Saturday I think. Her rate required for KT's total is up to 204 km/day but she put in a 222 km day yesterday.

Whether she's aware of it or not at the moment, it could be a close run thing between her and Kajsa.

Usual caveats regarding the accuracy of my data apply even more here. I could be wrong.

 

[Dogtrousers]

Alicia continues with her late dash. She has 16 days left and has reduced her asking rate for KT's total down to 199 km per day, and is averaging 201 km/day month to date.

 

[Dogtrousers]

It looks like Alicia faltered a bit on Saturday, logging only 33.3 km. This bumped up her required rate to match Kajsa from 201km/day to 213. She bounced back yesterday with a 236km day so her asking rate is now 211 km/day with 13 days to go.

Caveat that not only are these figures reliant on my dodgy maths, but they are also reliant on Strava reporting monthly totals correctly. As emerged during Kajsa's year, Strava is not 100% reliable on this count.

 

[Dogtrousers]

My money's on Alicia making it at the moment. She can probably let the daily required total go up as high as 350-400km if she's prepared to put in a really big effort on the last day. She's done a couple of 300km plus days already this month.

Of course, she may be entirely unaware of this drama, which may be entirely a figment of my spreadsheets.

 

[deptfordmarmoset]

In other news from Strava, Kajsa just logged a 368km ride. Part of her Transcontinental prep.

Did Emily Chappell talk her into doing that?

 

[velovoice]

Did Emily Chappell talk her into doing that?

Yes. (Or so I infer from Kajsa's FB posts a few months ago.)

 

[tallliman]

Kajsa's reasoning makes complete sense to me. It must be very hard to motivate yourself to go back to a place that wasn't always happy.

(Sometimes I wish I was better at expressing myself!)

 

[Dogtrousers]

Kajsa has just launched her website sweatpledge.com
It seems to be a place where you can put down a marker for your targets, post updates, and stuff like that. Interesting to see where it goes.