Kajsa Tylen: The Billie Dovey 81 miles a day progress thread

[Pale Rider]

It's a bloody cheek, our threads bigger for a start!!!

Although I've found the use of the apostrophe on their thread to be generally superior.

 

[Mugshot]

Although I've found the use of the apostrophe on their thread to be generally superior.

Agreed, I was on my phone and couldn't be bothered to change the predictive text. I am however mortified at my laziness, sorry

 

[Dogtrousers]

Cyclist's attempt to break a 1938 distance record has been "much harder" than expected
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-37388100

 

[Aravis]

Thanks for posting. There was absolutely no pretence in that, was there?

Looking for some encouraging numbers, I know dozens of graphs and statistics have been posted here and in other places, but I'm not sure if anyone has looked the outstanding daily mileage requirement. In other words, what daily mileage is required for Kajsa to meet the 50,000km target, and also, based on progress to date, how quickly is this target going to fall. Regrettably we've missed her dropping below a target of 80 miles per day, which happened on August 25th. Maybe it wouldn't have sounded as great a landmark as it really was.

Having started the year with a daily requirement of 85 miles per day, she still needs over 78 to complete the challenge. Projecting forwards, 75 will be reached on October 12th, by the beginning of December the target will have fallen to 52.9 miles per day, and the challenge will be complete on December 19th. I'm sure this is good news, although to me it feels a bit like paying off a mortgage.

Here is the graph:

 

[Dogtrousers]

I have to admit that I did notice when the required rate dipped under 80. I didn't mention this for fear of appearing too geeky. I hadn't noticed the extent to which it is plummeting. Forward projections are difficult because we don't know how long her current (100 mpd+) purple patch will last and how soon the winter winds will start affecting her.

Meanwhile her lead over a notional rider doing exactly the required rate every day is building. Especially during the this month.

 

[Aravis]

I have to admit that I did notice when the required rate dipped under 80. I didn't mention this for fear of appearing too geeky. I hadn't noticed the extent to which it is plummeting. Forward projections are difficult because we don't know how long her current (100 mpd+) purple patch will last and how soon the winter winds will start affecting her.

I see my graph is far too smooth for the part that's already happened. The column I used for distance to date is effectively projecting back from today to the start of the year based on average mileage per day, so it was going to be smooth. After sorting this out, the date I now have for dropping below 80 is September 8th, THE DAY I RODE WITH HER! And I didn't know. Now I am upset!

I think it's reasonable to project forwards based on what she's achieved over the full year to date, since that includes a sample of most of what she's likely to face - prolonged snow excepted, but that's rare before Christmas. The big imponderable must be her physical condition. Knowledge that every day she merely equals her current average increasingly rapidly brings down the daily requirement could be a big boost.

 

[Aravis]

More good numbers: the best Strava week (Monday to Sunday) of the year. I hope she knows.

On the required daily rate question, if Kajsa can do level centuries until the end of September (I understand she made her own sweat pledge to this effect at the start of the month) the rate needed will have fallen to 75, the equivalent of three centuries and a day off for the rest of the year. All unofficial of course...

- Edited to correct definition of "Strava week".

 

[tallliman]

@Aravis, Kajsa's sweat pledge was to average 100mpd this month. I think she'll keep pushing the high miles for as long as she can.

 

[Dogtrousers]

More good numbers: the best Strava week (Monday to Sunday) of the year. I hope she knows.

On the required daily rate question, if Kajsa can do level centuries until the end of September (I understand she made her own sweat pledge to this effect at the start of the month) the rate needed will have fallen to 75, the equivalent of three centuries and a day off for the rest of the year. All unofficial of course...

- Edited to correct definition of "Strava week".

I put a comment on Strava noting that it was her highest week. She may have seen that.

Another interesting stat is that she's currently on 98 centuries for the year. (Plus a couple of 99's on 17 Jan - 99.56 and 10 Mar - 99.60)

Your figures are correct, I think. My guess is that she will pass Billie Dovey's total late November, and pass 50,000km in mid Dec.

I wonder if she will ride on 31st Dec? As it's a leap year and she started on Jan 1st she doesn't have to.

 

[Aravis]

I wonder if she will ride on 31st Dec? As it's a leap year and she started on Jan 1st she doesn't have to.

I asked her about this the other week. With massive caveats because this is purely my understanding of what was said at the time and relates to no information that to my knowledge has been posted anywhere officially, what I gleaned was this: under Guinness rules her year ends at 8am on the the 31st, exactly 365 x 24 hours after the start. Weather permitting she's looking at doing a shortish day on the 30th, and then a celebratory night ride (on carefully chosen roads) ending at Leisure Lakes at the appointed time, followed by a champagne breakfast. It sounds like a fantastic plan and a worthy finale.

 

[tallliman]

Sounds a wonderful plan....Might have to join her!

 

[Dogtrousers]

She had an accident today. Sounds like a car turned across her path. She's a bit bashed but OK. As is the bike.

 

[tallliman]

In happier news, Kajsa was on East Midlands today!

 

[Dogtrousers]

 

[Aravis]

I still have huge problems with this. Given her objectives, doesn't it kind of say she's failed?

Kajsa, if you ever read this, I am not being negative. I don't think you've failed in the slightest. But forgive me for not putting a comment like this in Strava.