How much do riders collude to allow a "wild card" stage winner?

[Citius]

Geschke was no threat to GC. No point wasting watts chasing someone who is not going to affect the overall. Someone has to win.

 

[Milkfloat]

Looking back in history the 'Stolen Vuelta' shows that things like this do happen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Millar#1985:_The_stolen_Vuelta

 

[Legs]

There's two different issues here. One is being denounced as cobblers and that's the situation of some riders in a break determining among themselves (or among their DSes) who is going to take honours on the stage. I'm pretty sure this doesn't happen in Grand Tours any longer - the stakes are just too high. As other posters have noted upthread, there are certainly 'understandings', however, among breakaways about sprints and KoM points...

The second issue is the matter of who actually makes the breakaway. You've obviously got to be sufficiently unthreatening from a GC point of view, and not have made enemies with the patron of the peloton, a la Simeoni. There is definitely a lot of politics that go on in ensuring that the selection is correct.

 

[Buddfox]

None of this explains to me how a relative unknown like Geschke can break away and sustain that pace for so long without being chased down by the power of the peloton or a group. I'm not insinuating drug abuse here, I'm merely wondering how, if the posts above are correct, the race allows this to happen. Maybe @HF2300 can explain to me in a little more detail the reasons why it worked for Geschke that day.

No guile intended, I'm simply curious.

Your post requires two assumptions for your assertion to be correct (amongst other things). Firstly that every rider in the race is riding as hard as they can in each stage, and secondly that every rider in the peloton is concerned about beating Geschke.

In reality, riders try to minimise the effort they make in the stages they are not concerned about. Hence the existence of the grupetto of sprinters that try to get through every mountain stage as close to the time limit as they can. So we are not talking about a full peloton trying to chase down Geschke, even before we consider team tactics.

Further, many of the remaining riders are riding in support of their GC contender. This includes all the riders in the Sky, Astana, Movistar, Saxo-Tinkoff, Trek Factory Racing, Lotto Jumbo, IAM Cycling, AG2R and to a lesser extent Cannondale-Garmin, FDJ and Europcar (I would question whether Europcar were 100% focussed on Pierre Rolland). This is a vast proportion of the peloton. Only a few teams are not riding for an overall GC contender. These GC teams I've listed don't care (really) who wins a stage late in the race. It has no impact or bearing on their measures of success for the event overall. Geschke finished nearly two hours behind Chris Froome - no point in anyone from these teams wasting one calorie of energy chasing him down.

So in reality, there are not many participants concerned about Geschke. On that day, he had the form and played the tactics right to beat the handful of riders that were. It is for these reasons that stages can be described as 'perfect for a break away'. These are usually in the final week, when priorities have become more focussed, and also where riders are more exhausted from efforts earlier in the Tour and so for a rider who is in good shape, it presents an opportunity to race well and win.

 

[w00hoo_kent]

I believe from what I've read that it used to happen in a lot of the crit racing at the end of the season.

In the distant past post-Tour crits were a show and the locals wanted a local rider to do well, but the expensive contracted Tour riders were expected to perform.

Agreed with GT, but I was under the impression that European Crit racing was still a bit of a WWF affair at times with local favourites and those getting the big appearance money very likely to win things. I'd read that this didn't make them easy (while you might be tipped to win, nobody would necessarily slow down for you, they'd just not try and beat you if you were going fast enough) but it was expected to be a bit of a pantomime. I must admit I find that difficult to believe based on the fact that I'd not spend a penny to go and see a 'race' I believed to be fixed. But the suggestion seemed to be that it was still a thing and UK races like the city tour series were a bit unique in being out and out races.

 

[Mad Doug Biker]

But the suggestion seemed to be that it was still a thing and UK races like the city tour series were a bit unique in being out and out races.

Something is either unique or it is not, it cannot be a 'bit' unique!

 

[w00hoo_kent]

Something is either unique or it is not, it cannot be a 'bit' unique!

It can in the Estuary :-)

 

[Mad Doug Biker]

It can in the Estuary :-)

So you give a sh*t, as it floats away down said estuary?? Good good!

 

[smutchin]

Agreed with GT, but I was under the impression that European Crit racing was still a bit of a WWF affair at times with local favourites and those getting the big appearance money very likely to win things. I'd read that this didn't make them easy (while you might be tipped to win, nobody would necessarily slow down for you, they'd just not try and beat you if you were going fast enough) but it was expected to be a bit of a pantomime. I must admit I find that difficult to believe based on the fact that I'd not spend a penny to go and see a 'race' I believed to be fixed. But the suggestion seemed to be that it was still a thing and UK races like the city tour series were a bit unique in being out and out races.

I read Reg Harris's biography a while ago. Definitely a lot of race fixing going on between him and his rivals, but that was the track rather than the road so much smaller fields and much shorter races, ergo much easier to fix.

Here's the Secret Pro on post-Tour crits:
http://cyclingtips.com.au/2015/08/t...-crits-worlds-and-the-farce-that-is-the-iaaf/

They're show events and not representative of all crit racing in Europe - there are loads of local and regional leagues with proper races going on all the time. You just might not know about them because they won't get any coverage outside their area.