I'm going to repeat what I said over on yacf, so apologies if anyone has already read this...
I'm assuming Cav won't pick up any points today, and as FM says, probably won't overhaul Rodriguez, who is riding with the pink jersey at stake so will probably be extra motivated to do well.
However, to have come so close to winning the red jersey this year is mightily impressive, especially after incidents like the Ferrari takedown - even if he hadn't gone on to win that stage, he was well placed to pick up the few points that would have made all the difference in the final reckoning. But again to reiterate FM's comments, them's the breaks. You can't blame bad luck for losing races - and it's to his credit that Cav doesn't blame bad luck; he blames himself for things like losing to Guardini on stage 18.
And it is hugely to his credit that he has made it to the end at all - hardly any of the other top sprinters are left. Like Thor Hushovd last year, he's proving himself to be a real credit to the rainbow stripes. Riding like a real World Champion.
And let's not forget what a monumental achievement it would have been to win the red jersey - only four riders have won the points competition in all three grand tours (Petacchi, Merckx, Jalabert, Abdoujaparov), and Cav is still younger than any of them when they achieved it. Plus, it's harder for a pure sprinter to win the Giro points competition because of the way points are distributed.
But he has time on his side to come back and have another go. He will do it one day, it just wasn't his time this year.
He's won MSR and is already showing signs of developing from a specialist stage winner into an all-round points chaser, so while I don't think he'll ever become a Sean Kelly style of rider, I do predict he will go on to win the points jersey in many grand tours to come.
d.