Okay, we're really down to just 6 now with any chance of being on the podium. Baring calamities, the winner will be:
1 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo 63:40:10
And it looks like 2 and 3 will be, the only question is in which order. Tactically, Valverde has way more nous than Chaves, but Chaves is the stronger climber, and I don't think he will make the same mistake again as he did today:
2 Esteban Chaves (Col) Orica-GreenEdge 0:03:00
3 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 0:03:23
These two still have a chance of getting on the podium, but whereas Zakarin is heading up, Nibali is heading down, and almost certainly their positions will be reversed by the end of the race:
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Astana Pro Team 0:04:43
5 Ilnur Zakarin (Rus) Team Katusha 0:04:50
Finally, we shouldn't discount Majka - at least he could certainly also end up in the top 5 (and with a really great ride and a bad day for some others, on the podium, though that is unlikely):
6 Rafal Majka (Pol) Tinkoff Team 0:05:34
Below this, riders are really just hanging on now.