Anyone know how Yates is at TT'ing? (comparative to Froome).
I don't think any of us can say for sure how good Yates will be in a 34km TT after two weeks of hard GT racing when he is defending the leader's jersey. It's the very definition of unknown territory for him.
For a one-off race like the Worlds, you'd be rash to bet against Dumoulin beating Yates by anything less than two minutes, but again it's hard to say how he will perform given how tough the race has been so far. He's been digging deep just to keep Yates within touching distance. Will that affect his performance today?
You've also got other influencing factors like Yates setting off after Dumoulin, so he'll be getting regular updates from the team on what he needs to do - will that motivate him to pull an extra 10% out of his reserves?
I wouldn't bet against Yates doing The Time Trial Of His Life today and losing less than a minute to Dumoulin. On the other hand, he could fall to pieces and lose three minutes. Who knows?