it's quite hard to judge as there's quite a variance by manufacturers in the sizing difference, if any, between flat bar road bikes and drops. Looking at some of the manufacturers sites, for example the Scott Speedster S50 flat bar and S50 drop bars have exactly the same geometry and stem lengths. An XXL is a 595mm TT and a 130mm stem and an XL is a 575mm TT and a 120mm stem. The XXL would be from about 6'2" upwards and the XL up to 6'2", roughly. This would indicate to me that they expect to set up the flat bar about the same as they would the drops.
But then look at something like Cotic and their Roadrat model, comes in small, medium and large, all 3 get a 130mm stem and the effective TTs are much longer at 577, 590 and 610mm respectively. They rate the large as being for 5'10" upwards, both the Scott and the Cotic have ST angles of about 73deg, so that's quite some difference.
Speedster XL up to about 6'2" - TT+Stem = 695mm
Speedster XXL - TT+Stem = 725mm
Roadrat Large for 5'10" upwards - TT+Stem = 740mm - that is one hell of a long reach for someone at 5'10", IMO, even if the saddle was jammed all the way forward.
I've just taken the drop bars off my Vaya and put on some On One Mary bars, which have a forward/back sweep and work out about the same, reachwise, as putting a straight flat bar on. With the drops I had a 100mm stem and have put a 120mm stem on with the Mary bars but I'm waiting on a 130mm stem to lengthen it a bit. This means that the front hub is now visible behind the bar clamp but no way could I have run them with the 100mm stem unless I dropped them really low. The effective TT on the Vaya is 585mm and I'm 6'1", so I'll have a total of 715mm when the new stem arrives.